a legitimate mess: The Best supporting Actor race.

I still have faith that Chastain will win BAFTA, so this year's Best Actress race is as messy as ever. Even messier is the Best Supporting Actor race, where everyone has legitimate reasons that they could win. Any name announced on the 24th (that is incorrectly predicted) would be a real slap to the head. "Oh, yeah, they were gonna win all along!"

Right now I would say Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones, Robert De Niro, Christoph Waltz, and Alan Arkin are the ones in order to win. The order I listed is in likelihood of winning. De Niro was supposed to win SAG, but didn't. Just because he is doing this random bout of press interviews doesn't mean he'll win. I think Hoffman was the strongest supporting performance this year. It has the distinct advantage of being a lead, which benefited Helen Hunt's nomination. Hoffman dominates the film, and he SINGS!

Jones was good in Lincoln, but I must be blind or something because nothing truly stuck out. Waltz could win, but something speaks to me about Django's controversial side toward violence. Seriously, action figures will NOT help your campaign. Arkin was good, but he could've easily been excised from the film and I wouldn't have noticed any difference. The film would lack its wit, but still, he wasn't a pivotal character or anything.

WEINSTEIN v. WEINSTEIN v. WEINSTEIN

Hoffman, De Niro, and Waltz are all performances held under the Weinstein company. Weinstein is obviously campaigning for De Niro, which gives Waltz and Hoffman a distinct disadvantage. Still, I think Hoffman is going to win the BAFTA, and possibly win the Oscar.

I won't be surprised though if Jones wins the BAFTA, then the Oscar.

A funny thing happened on the way to the Oscars...

So, Argo just won the Producers Guild, and now I'm truly convinced it might win Best Picture at the Oscars. This is a most unusual occasion, and I'm pleased so that his is one of my big 'upsets' I was hoping for. I knew something would happen, but I am honestly still surprised the Producers liked it so much after such a shabby turnout with the nominations.

Tonight's SAG award can be another game-changer in all ways (except for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel). If  Lincoln wins, we (the prognosticators) know that the film is still the contender. If Silver Linings wins, we know Argo has some competition. If Argo wins, the race would practically end.

Also, Megan Ellison's demand for a recount might become a reality.

Look beyond the jump for Best Supporting Actor and Best Actress thoughts at SAG:

Argo (2012): The years' crowdpleaser. (3½ Stars Out of Four)

Best Supporting Actor predictions.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Leo, one of the most popular actors in Hollywood has yet to win an Oscar. This time, though, he's got everything he needs. A meaty, controversial role, Weinstein, Tarantino, and Star Power.

2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
When reading reviews of Lincoln, the praise is aimed always at Lee Jones and Day-Lewis. He's won before, been nominated multiple times. Expect him to be nominated again.

3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
PSH is probably the best character actor working today, along with Tilda Swinton. He's got Weinstein,but his performance be overshadowed by Phoenix, and Harvey might be busy getting the win in for Leo.

4. Alan Arkin, Argo
Alan Arkin was probably given the Oscar in 2006 because it was assumed he would 'kick the bucket'. Nope, he's still around and at his deadpan best in Argo, a film that will get double-digit nominations, guaranteed.

5. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
The older members are going to love this. Rob, in a downhill recently, has just got the right film to bring him to the top. He has his best part and performance of the past decade, and the Academy will love him for it. Also expect the nominations for this film to be in the double-digits.

Best Actress predictions due tomorrow.