a legitimate mess: The Best supporting Actor race.

I still have faith that Chastain will win BAFTA, so this year's Best Actress race is as messy as ever. Even messier is the Best Supporting Actor race, where everyone has legitimate reasons that they could win. Any name announced on the 24th (that is incorrectly predicted) would be a real slap to the head. "Oh, yeah, they were gonna win all along!"

Right now I would say Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Tommy Lee Jones, Robert De Niro, Christoph Waltz, and Alan Arkin are the ones in order to win. The order I listed is in likelihood of winning. De Niro was supposed to win SAG, but didn't. Just because he is doing this random bout of press interviews doesn't mean he'll win. I think Hoffman was the strongest supporting performance this year. It has the distinct advantage of being a lead, which benefited Helen Hunt's nomination. Hoffman dominates the film, and he SINGS!

Jones was good in Lincoln, but I must be blind or something because nothing truly stuck out. Waltz could win, but something speaks to me about Django's controversial side toward violence. Seriously, action figures will NOT help your campaign. Arkin was good, but he could've easily been excised from the film and I wouldn't have noticed any difference. The film would lack its wit, but still, he wasn't a pivotal character or anything.

WEINSTEIN v. WEINSTEIN v. WEINSTEIN

Hoffman, De Niro, and Waltz are all performances held under the Weinstein company. Weinstein is obviously campaigning for De Niro, which gives Waltz and Hoffman a distinct disadvantage. Still, I think Hoffman is going to win the BAFTA, and possibly win the Oscar.

I won't be surprised though if Jones wins the BAFTA, then the Oscar.

The Master (2012)- On a slow boat to loneliness. (4 Stars)

The Master is film about two men who are two halves that complete one another. One man is Freddie Quell, a WWII vet who moonshines and lives off nomadic loneliness. The other is Lancaster Dodd, the leader of a new religion called The Cause. His philosophy is messy and is soft-spoken during his first meeting with Freddie.

A funny thing happened on the way to the Oscars...

So, Argo just won the Producers Guild, and now I'm truly convinced it might win Best Picture at the Oscars. This is a most unusual occasion, and I'm pleased so that his is one of my big 'upsets' I was hoping for. I knew something would happen, but I am honestly still surprised the Producers liked it so much after such a shabby turnout with the nominations.

Tonight's SAG award can be another game-changer in all ways (except for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel). If  Lincoln wins, we (the prognosticators) know that the film is still the contender. If Silver Linings wins, we know Argo has some competition. If Argo wins, the race would practically end.

Also, Megan Ellison's demand for a recount might become a reality.

Look beyond the jump for Best Supporting Actor and Best Actress thoughts at SAG:

The Guilds, some things to note.

Every year, the most important precursors shake the race. The guilds, namely SAG and PGA. The Screen Actors Guild is on Sunday, and the Producers Guild announces tomorrow. The two films that are truly seeking Oscar gold are Silver Linings Playbooks and Lincoln, based on number of nominations. Argo is also one one more contender that is missing the all-precious directors nomination that is restraining a potential Oscar victory.

PGA Prediction:
Lincoln

SAG (Best Cast) Prediction:
Silver Linings Playbook

This weekend can mark a weekend of great change. In 2006, Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA, and became a hopeful to a true contender. It lost the Golden Globe and was mainly skunked out of a directing nomination. 2006's PGA also marked the beginning of the end of Dreamgirls.

2006 was one of the more messy years in recent memory, and I would like to see a major upset within this weekend. Like Zero Dark Thirty winning the PGA, but that's all just a dream.

The actors in SAG are in the Academy, the same won that gave four acting nominations to Silver Linings Playbook. This is the same Academy that gave 3 acting nominations to The Master, and 1 SAG nomination. Still, Silver Linings Playbook is an actors piece, and it is a piece that is quite popular.  Still, Silver Linings will probably win the big prize in this shindig. This probably means they will give the Best Actress prize to Jennifer Lawrence's very good work in Silver Linings Playbook instead of Jessica Chastain's powerhouse work in Zero Dark Thirty.

Complete SAG predictions below:

Best Actor- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress- Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor- No idea. Hoping for an upset, so Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (No Django nominees)
Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (duh!)

More after the jump discussing this weekend's significance.

Zero Dark Thirty and The Master cover Vancouver

Winners via Hitfix,

Best Film
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "The Master"

Best Screenplay
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Foreign Language Film
"Holy Motors"

Best Documentary
"Searching for Sugar Man"

Best Canadian Film
"Rebelle" (a.k.a. "War Witch")

Best Director of a Canadian Film
Panos Cosmatos, "Beyond the Black Rainbow"

Best Actor in a Canadian Film
Michael Rogers, "Beyond the Black Rainbow"

Best Actress in a Canadian Film
Rachel Mwanza, "Rebelle"

Best Supporting Actor in a Canadian Film
"Serge Kanyinda, "Rebelle"

Best Supporting Actress in a Canadian Film
Sarah Gadon, "Cosmopolis"

Best Canadian Documentary
"The World Before Her"

Best British Columbia Film
"Beyond the Black Rainbow"

Ian Caddell Award for Achievement
Alan Franey, Vancouver International Film Festival

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LAFCA predictions!

Today the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) is announcing, and this could be a make or break for many movies. If Zero Dark Thirty wins, it would become the frontrunner. If The Master wins, it would basically be a Best Picture nominee lock. If Lincoln wins, not much would happen. If Amour wins, it would make itself a Best Picture nominee. If Les Mis wins, god save us.

Best Picture:
The Master (alt. Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Director:
P.T. Anderson, The Master (alt. Michael Haneke, Amour)

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (alt. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master)

Best Actress:
Emanuelle Riva, Amour (alt. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Supporting Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (alt. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master and Trouble with the Curve (alt. Sally Field, Lincoln)

Best Screenplay
Tony Kushner, Lincoln (alt. Michael Haneke, Amour)

Best Foreign Film
Amour (alt. Rust and Bone)

Best Animated Film
Frankenweenie (alt. Wreck-It Ralph)

Best Score
Johnny Greenwood, The Master (alt. Alexandre Desplat, Zero Dark Thirty)

CHECK BACK LATER TODAY FOR COMPLETE LIST OF WINNERS!

New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) predictions!

NYFCC is announcing tomorrow, which is nothing less than exciting. I remember last year when I was so happy that Chassy and Pitt won acting prizes for The Tree of Life, and I thought that the film had a real shot at winning the top prize. Alas, it lost to The Artist. This year, I'm going all out for The Master. Members of NYFCC include AO Scott and Lisa Schwarzbaum, who both have given the film equivalents of 100%.


And since the film is my bet for Best Picture, it will probably win Best Director. Predictions below.

Best Picture- The Master (Alt. Zero Dark Thirty)
Best Director- PT Anderson, The Master (Alt. Steve Spielberg, Lincoln)
Best Actor- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (Alt. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master)
Best Actress- Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (Alt. J. Law, Silver Linings Playbook)
Best Supporting Actor- Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (Alt. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln)
Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (Alt. Amy Adams, The Master)
Best Screenplay- The Master (Alt. Lincoln)
Best Cinematography- The Master (Alt. Life of Pi)
Best Foreign Film- Amour (Alt. The Intouchables)
Best First Film- Beasts of the Southern Wild (Alt. The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

Judging from my predictions, the big ones out of the gate tomorrow will be The Master, Zero Dark Thirty, and Lincoln, a race that I am perfectly content with.

Check back tomorrow for complete list of winners!

Best Supporting Actor predictions.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Leo, one of the most popular actors in Hollywood has yet to win an Oscar. This time, though, he's got everything he needs. A meaty, controversial role, Weinstein, Tarantino, and Star Power.

2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
When reading reviews of Lincoln, the praise is aimed always at Lee Jones and Day-Lewis. He's won before, been nominated multiple times. Expect him to be nominated again.

3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
PSH is probably the best character actor working today, along with Tilda Swinton. He's got Weinstein,but his performance be overshadowed by Phoenix, and Harvey might be busy getting the win in for Leo.

4. Alan Arkin, Argo
Alan Arkin was probably given the Oscar in 2006 because it was assumed he would 'kick the bucket'. Nope, he's still around and at his deadpan best in Argo, a film that will get double-digit nominations, guaranteed.

5. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
The older members are going to love this. Rob, in a downhill recently, has just got the right film to bring him to the top. He has his best part and performance of the past decade, and the Academy will love him for it. Also expect the nominations for this film to be in the double-digits.

Best Actress predictions due tomorrow.

P.T's The Master coming in October! (Maybe.)

So I LOVE LOVE LOVE movies by P.T. Anderson. There Will Be Blood? The best of 2007! I also love Anderson's Magnolia, the best of 1999. Anyways, the next from the master is aptly titled The Master, about Phillip Seymour Hoffman starting a new religion. From a tweeter, the film is possibly due on October. PSYCHED!