2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress (11/22/2013)

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
A lock for a nomination, and maybe a lock for a win. Blanchett, one of the best actresses in the movie business, bit off a brilliant Blanche Dubois-like part offered by the once great Woody Allen. She won for her fun work in The Aviator, but that was a Supporting Oscar. Since she really is one  of the best actresses in the business, she certainly deserves a lead actress prize, and this should be the one that gives it to her.

2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
A sci-fi movie getting an acting nomination? Sandra Bullock, potential two-time Oscar winner? Both sound off, but when you see Gravity, both things seem so possible. Bullock delivers a superb performance as scientist Dr. Ryan Stone, stranded in space alone. And since she is alone for most of the movie, she absolutely CARRIES it. I really don't care who would win, Blanchett or Bullock, because both are excellent. And I'm so glad that I'm not an Academy member, since I won't have to decide.

3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
A relic of 1990's film, Thompson is back with a vengeance in another period drama that is instead set in America over Europe (she is still British!). Mild reactions out of London, but the AFI premiere in LA has spoken many great things about Thompson and Hanks. Will she be recognized? Maybe. Nominated? Definitely.

4. Judi Dench, Philomena
Judi Dench is a pretty well-regarded actress right now, and almost got an acting nomination for a Bond movie last year. This time around she's in a true story that's being backed by the Weinsteins. Definitely one to watch and a serious contender for the top prize.

5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
She's Meryl Streep. With the Weinsteins backing her. The only problem is that I've heard she's not campaigning at all, and I'm not even sure if this is a leading role or a supporting role. She's #5 for now, but she's the weakest one on the list because of...

Keep an eye out for...
Amy Adams, American Hustle
With The Fighter, director David O. Russell got 3 acting nominations (including Adams). With Silver Linings Playbook, O. Russell got nominations in all four acting categories. With American Hustle, he is definitely a man to watch out for. Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, and Jeremy Renner are all on the outside of the nomination bubble and looking in. But with O. Russell at the helm, and assuming the movie's good (which reports from AFI say that the first 6 minutes were), we're going to see some nominations.

Adele Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color
The Academy is not afraid of foreign performances, a la Emmanuelle Riva for Amour. What they are afraid of is sex, which this film is getting almost all of its publicity for. What Exarchopolous has going for her is that she's already started to campaign, and reviews for the film are strong. She probably won't get an O
scar nomination, but she will nab critics prizes, I'm sure.

Kate Winslet, Labor Day
I read Joyce Maynard's Labor Day last week, and it was something I thoroughly enjoyed. It's a great fit for Winslet, and reviews out of TIFF and Telluride suggest her performance is strong. However, consensus is saying the movie isn't, so... maybe a Golden Globe nomination?

RIP
Naomi Watts, Diana
Remember when this movie was supposed to be an Oscar contender? I predicted a tomato score near 60%-70%, but at one point the reviews were at 2%. 2%. Let that soak in. RIP Diana.

Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
The teaser that premiered was actually pretty decent, but never for one second did I think that Nicole Kidman would match Grace Kelly. The film has moved to some undetermined date next year, so for now, RIP Grace of Monaco.
'
Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
The film will go VOD and small theatrical release next year in Spring. Cannes reception was also decently mixed. RIP The Immigrant (I personally preferred the title Lowlife).

Oscar Nomination thoughts.

YOU'LL WIN AGAIN
SOMEDAY

YOU'LL WIN AGAIN
SOMEDAY, TOO

Most Americans go to school, especially in the teenage years. I am currently a teenage school lad, so I have to work from 7:00-3:00. The nominations were announced at 7:30, so I chose to listen to the YouTube livestream in the library. When you only listen to audio, your mind can play tricks on you. You can mistake words. Like Benh and Ben.

A simple explanation: I was listening to the nominations, and the last nominee announced was Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild. I, of course, first heard the word Ben, so I assumed "Oh, Ben Affleck, Argo." But Zeitlin was added on to the name, and all became clear: THE BENH ZEITLIN, THE KID WITH A CAMERA THAT MADE A FILM FOR $180K. Wow. I was more shocked by the inclusions than the exclusions. I then realized Bigelow and Affleck were snubbed for their political thrillers, and instead two independent films with little known actresses made it in.

BEST PICTURE:

LIKE A BOSS #YOLO

I really, really wanted The Master to get in. Alas, it didn't, but the nominees this year were very good. Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild both were on my top 10, albeit, the bottom. I pined for Les Miserables not getting not nominated, and I wish Moonrise was nominated. Moonrise was picking up steam toward the end of the race, and so was Skyfall.

BEST ACTOR:
Joaquin made it in. It was a good lineup.

BEST ACTRESS:
No real shocks, unless you count Marion Cotillard not making it in as a 'shock'.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
It's a bummer Leo DiCaprio didn't get in, but the Academy did nominated the better Django performance: Christoph Waltz. There were no real surprises, but I wish Bardem got one for Skyfall.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
There were only really 4 contenders for this one, so Jacki Weaver making it in didn't come with too much surprise. Again, no real surprises.

BEST DIRECTOR: 
Where as the acting categories were not that surprising, the directing category was the bulk of all surprises. I really wish Bigelow got nominated for her masterpiece Zero Dark Thirty over Benh Zeitlin's Beasts.

THE SCREENPLAYS:
In the beginning of the season, I thought The Master would win Best Original Screenplay. Instead, it failed to get nominated, being cut out by Flight. Bummer, but that was probably the only surprise in the whole category. Adapted was predictable, unless you consider The Perks of Being a Wallflower as a lock.

Best Actress predictions

BEST ACTRESS:

1. J. Law for Silver Linings Playbook.
She's young. They're in love. I mean 'They' as in the Academy. She basically was the main reason Winter's Bone got the nomination for Best Picture. Silver Linings is a crowd pleaser, and being the main star of The Hunger Games is only going to help her.

2. Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone
Since Missy C has been a winner of Best Actress before, for a French film. Isn't Rust and Bone a French film? This year's Best Actress pickings have been reasonable slim, and her nomination is  near lock. Also, being a French goddess and being in The Dark Knight Rises is only going to help her.

3. Quevenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
The best thing of Wallis' performance is that she was a natural Southern. She was born for the role. It was so unusual to see something so human in such a fantasy. The only thing limiting her nomination is her SAG ineligibility.

4. Emanuelle Riva for Amour
The old farts in the Academy will vote for her for what she's done (Hiroshima mon amour). The others will vote for her because she has an amazing performance in this foreign film. The main thing limiting her is the fact that the film is foreign. That probably could limit Marion Cotillard.

5. Tie between Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
JC is one of the stars that's taking Hollywood by storm, who can do art-house and blockbuster with ease. Zero Dark Thirty looks to be both. The film has yet to be seen, but Annapurna Productions and Sony has faith in the film. Naomi Watts has been praised for many performances, but has only nabbed one nomination, all the way back in 2003. So Chassy is only getting more popular, and Watts is losing her footing. However, The Impossible is a disaster true story tale, which will appeal to all members. Zero Dark Thirty is definitely going to get some controversy for its themes. However, it will appeal to those who voted for The Hurt Locker. I am conflicted.

Screenplay nomination predictions due tomorrow.

TIFF brings out two films you can easily like... and one that you could (with difficulty,) love.

... I would like to know the context....

TIFF (That's Toronto International Film Festival) is underway, and has brought showings of The Master, which is getting love. Speaking of love...

-Amour is showing off to be more than a one-trick pony (Cannes). The frontrunner for Best Foreign film, shutting out Rust and Bone. But...
-Rust and Bone is a lock for Best Actress (Marion Cotillard). Her love in the Academy is only getting bigger, and her appearances in The Dark Knight Rises and Inception is helping.

Cloud Atlas premiered yesterday, and is seemingly as divisive as I guess, Dark City and The Tree of Life. Some critics call it bold and vivid, with amazing stories, while others say the opposite.

Probably the biggest surprise at TIFF was Silver Linings Playbook, with Bradley Cooper and J.Law (see what I did there? No?). Directed by the difficult David O'Russell, critics are calling it 'a true crowd-pleaser'. Weinstein's got a lot on his plate, and it's looking like Django Unchained might be the runt in the roster.

Argo screened again, and it's another crowd pleaser. Ben Affleck is no actor-director like Orson Welles, but the only thing I read in reviews is that "he's a master storyteller". Cannot wait for Argo.

That's the scoop... wait for gathered opinions on The Impossible sometime in the next month.

The Dark Knight Rises (2012): A rise to the occasion.

I am going to start with saying this: YES, this is better than The Dark Knight. The Dark Knight Rises is a bigger film with better characters and a badass Bane.

The film kicks off on a sour note. With all these new characters, we never see them get a proper introduction. The 8 year difference between the films is also a contribution to the introduction of the new characters. We see Anne Hathaway as Selina Kyle/Catwoman in the movie, trying to steal from a hermit Bruce Wayne. This is our beginning setup, but why? It's not very well explained, except for implication that Bruce is a hermit after making a poor investment in Wayne Enterprises.

Could'a been a Cannes-tender: My award predictions...

Cannes Film Festival ends in two days, and it's been kind of a disappointment. The Paperboy, Lawless, and many others have been divisive disappointments, and other films have been middling and mediocre. The high points, though, have been Moonrise Kingdom, Love, Rust and Bone, Holy Motors, and maybe On the Road.

What will take home the Palme d'Or, however? I would change my old opinion of Cosmopolis to Love, but Haneke was already awarded two years ago. Cannes is like that, not rewarding the same director twice. I originally thought Moonrise Kingdom would be cute show, but now its an actual contender. I don't see it winning the Gold, but it might win the Jury Prize or even Grand Prix. This makes me want to give it to Rust and Bone. It probably won't go to Rust, but I think the lovely Cotillard might win Best Actress. I mean, it's French film with the main character being paralyzed! Last time a film like that was entered (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly), it didn't go empty handed!

Oscar Opinions: Midnight in Paris

Woody Allen!

QUICK OPINIONS: 
Midnight in Paris  is not Allen's best, that is still held by Annie Hall. It's good to see Allen back in the Best Picture field, where he probably was snubbed for Match Point. Anyhow, this is a comedy to the utmost degree, with more laughs and chuckles than Bridesmaids. This might be an Allen rehash of The Purple Rose of Cairo, but this is still one of the best movies of the year. 'B+', and you can see it listed on 'Chinese Appease'.