2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress (11/22/2013)

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
A lock for a nomination, and maybe a lock for a win. Blanchett, one of the best actresses in the movie business, bit off a brilliant Blanche Dubois-like part offered by the once great Woody Allen. She won for her fun work in The Aviator, but that was a Supporting Oscar. Since she really is one  of the best actresses in the business, she certainly deserves a lead actress prize, and this should be the one that gives it to her.

2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
A sci-fi movie getting an acting nomination? Sandra Bullock, potential two-time Oscar winner? Both sound off, but when you see Gravity, both things seem so possible. Bullock delivers a superb performance as scientist Dr. Ryan Stone, stranded in space alone. And since she is alone for most of the movie, she absolutely CARRIES it. I really don't care who would win, Blanchett or Bullock, because both are excellent. And I'm so glad that I'm not an Academy member, since I won't have to decide.

3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
A relic of 1990's film, Thompson is back with a vengeance in another period drama that is instead set in America over Europe (she is still British!). Mild reactions out of London, but the AFI premiere in LA has spoken many great things about Thompson and Hanks. Will she be recognized? Maybe. Nominated? Definitely.

4. Judi Dench, Philomena
Judi Dench is a pretty well-regarded actress right now, and almost got an acting nomination for a Bond movie last year. This time around she's in a true story that's being backed by the Weinsteins. Definitely one to watch and a serious contender for the top prize.

5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
She's Meryl Streep. With the Weinsteins backing her. The only problem is that I've heard she's not campaigning at all, and I'm not even sure if this is a leading role or a supporting role. She's #5 for now, but she's the weakest one on the list because of...

Keep an eye out for...
Amy Adams, American Hustle
With The Fighter, director David O. Russell got 3 acting nominations (including Adams). With Silver Linings Playbook, O. Russell got nominations in all four acting categories. With American Hustle, he is definitely a man to watch out for. Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, and Jeremy Renner are all on the outside of the nomination bubble and looking in. But with O. Russell at the helm, and assuming the movie's good (which reports from AFI say that the first 6 minutes were), we're going to see some nominations.

Adele Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color
The Academy is not afraid of foreign performances, a la Emmanuelle Riva for Amour. What they are afraid of is sex, which this film is getting almost all of its publicity for. What Exarchopolous has going for her is that she's already started to campaign, and reviews for the film are strong. She probably won't get an O
scar nomination, but she will nab critics prizes, I'm sure.

Kate Winslet, Labor Day
I read Joyce Maynard's Labor Day last week, and it was something I thoroughly enjoyed. It's a great fit for Winslet, and reviews out of TIFF and Telluride suggest her performance is strong. However, consensus is saying the movie isn't, so... maybe a Golden Globe nomination?

RIP
Naomi Watts, Diana
Remember when this movie was supposed to be an Oscar contender? I predicted a tomato score near 60%-70%, but at one point the reviews were at 2%. 2%. Let that soak in. RIP Diana.

Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
The teaser that premiered was actually pretty decent, but never for one second did I think that Nicole Kidman would match Grace Kelly. The film has moved to some undetermined date next year, so for now, RIP Grace of Monaco.
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Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
The film will go VOD and small theatrical release next year in Spring. Cannes reception was also decently mixed. RIP The Immigrant (I personally preferred the title Lowlife).

2014 Oscars: Best Actress predictions (7/10/13)

Time for another big category, and this year, this category is up in the air (again). However, predicting will not hurt at all.

1. Naomi Watts, Diana
The long overdue Naomi Watts will finally win... hopefully. A lot of this depends on the film' quality. Right now I'm expecting a film rating of 65%-70% on RottenTomatoes.

2. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Every year Meryl Streep makes a movie, she must be noted as a potential nominee. Her performance has actually been seen by a small audience, and the reception so far is good. Let's see how much cynicism the Academy can handle.

3. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Every time Kate Winslet make a movie, she also must be recognized as a potential contender. This time, she is directed by Jason Reitman, a man who can usually make Oscar-worthy performances. The again, Young Adult was unfairly snubbed out of Best Actress and Supporting Actor.

4. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Maybe I am bias. But I think that if there was any contender that has not been a nominee in this category, it ought to be Julie Delpy, with a performance displaying high range and in a film that will most likely receive love from the older Academy members/hipster ones.

5. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
Last year Nicole Kidman almost became a surprise nominee for the little-seen The Paperboy. However, her chances at a nomination look significantly higher, as she is playing former leading lady Grace Kelly, and is also backed by the Weinstein Company. However, can she pull off Grace Kelly (I'm not sure that she can, personally).

Check back soon for more nomination predictions!

The best actress race: it's a three-horse race, but with a different horse.

Naomi Watts' Oscar chances are now dead-in-the-water, ever since she lost the Globe for Best Actress. Somehow, Emmanuelle Riva is the third horse in the already tricky two-horse race between Lawrence and Chastain. Chastain really needs the BAFTA to really get on Lawrence's level, and I think Chastain is ahead of Lawrence, BAFTA terms. The problem is 86-year old Emmanuelle Riva, for her devastating work in Amour. (Yes, I feel guilty for calling an old lady a 'problem'). Both Amour and Zero Dark Thirty have Best Director nominations, and that's already a good sign that both films are popular. ZDT, I believe, has more nominations, and has an important scene in England, if that's any consolation.

As of right now, here are the actresses ranked in likelihood of winning.

1. Jen Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
4. Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Whoever wins BAFTA changes the game. Crossing fingers for Jessica, but in this race, anything goes.

Who is going to win Best Actress? It's a three-horse race.

Winning Best Actress would
not be... 'Impossible' *groan*

I've passionately supported Jessica Chastain to win Best Actress. The Golden Globes will not tell us anything, since Jennifer Lawrence is in the comedy category, and Chastain is in the drama category. Lawrence has an easy win, and I initially thought Chastain had another easy race, but as the Navy SEALS say- 'No Easy Day'. I never realized how much of a boost Watts was getting by SAG and Golden Globes, and she is quite popular in the industry. Do not be surprised if Watts surprises with a Globes win, so SAG might truly be the best way to determine the winner.

Consider that last year's SAG winner Viola Davis lost in Streep sympathy vote, and Watts just might win in a 'sorry we forgot to nominate you for Fair Game and whatever else' surprise. Lawrence is just still too young to win, by voters standards. Chastain is uber-popular and hopefully wins. I honestly don't know who will win. It's a three-horse race, and anyone can win.

Speaking of horse races, here is a video of a horse that began last and strode up to first. ARRRRRR!

Best Actress predictions (11/24/12)

I wouldn't be doing these if there wasn't something big, like a change in the race. Yet, there is.

1. Jessica Chastain for 'Zero Dark Thirty'
Oscars have a tough relationship with relevancy. 'The Hurt Locker' was relevant to the time, and it won. 'The Social Network' was REALLY relevant, yet it lost. I think the Academy will side with relevancy this time, and give the prize to Chassy, because it is so challenging. Also, some Oscars voters assumedly watch 'Homeland', with Carrie Mathison having striking parallels to Jessica's character.

2. Jennifer Lawrence for 'Silver Linings Playbook'
As this film's chances are failing, so is the film's heavyweight. Jennifer Lawrence is too young of a best actress contender to win, judging from the fact that the Academy is 70% white old male. Emphasis on the OLD.

3. Quevenzhane Wallis for 'Beasts of the Southern Wild'
A select few love this independent film, and they will easily vote for the 6-year old Wallis. I don't intend to sound like a internet dweeb, but younger hipsters eat this film up, and Wallis with it. Also, Wallis has been doing some nice publicity for the film, but no SAG really hurts.

4. Emanuelle Riva for 'Amour'
Since this foreign film is predicted to win, and even be a Best Picture nominee, Emanuelle Riva is going to ride along with it. Since the Academy is 70% old white males, they will easily vote for Riva's performance that will hit close to home. Also, since there will most likely be room for one french performance, it will be Riva's, not Cotillard's difficult portrayal of an amputee.

5. Naomi Watts for 'The Impossible'
'The Impossible' is a film with growing momentum, with big sponsorship by Angelina Jolie. With this added boost, Watts will probably be nominated, kicking out Cotillard in the nominee spot.

Best Actress predictions

BEST ACTRESS:

1. J. Law for Silver Linings Playbook.
She's young. They're in love. I mean 'They' as in the Academy. She basically was the main reason Winter's Bone got the nomination for Best Picture. Silver Linings is a crowd pleaser, and being the main star of The Hunger Games is only going to help her.

2. Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone
Since Missy C has been a winner of Best Actress before, for a French film. Isn't Rust and Bone a French film? This year's Best Actress pickings have been reasonable slim, and her nomination is  near lock. Also, being a French goddess and being in The Dark Knight Rises is only going to help her.

3. Quevenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
The best thing of Wallis' performance is that she was a natural Southern. She was born for the role. It was so unusual to see something so human in such a fantasy. The only thing limiting her nomination is her SAG ineligibility.

4. Emanuelle Riva for Amour
The old farts in the Academy will vote for her for what she's done (Hiroshima mon amour). The others will vote for her because she has an amazing performance in this foreign film. The main thing limiting her is the fact that the film is foreign. That probably could limit Marion Cotillard.

5. Tie between Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
JC is one of the stars that's taking Hollywood by storm, who can do art-house and blockbuster with ease. Zero Dark Thirty looks to be both. The film has yet to be seen, but Annapurna Productions and Sony has faith in the film. Naomi Watts has been praised for many performances, but has only nabbed one nomination, all the way back in 2003. So Chassy is only getting more popular, and Watts is losing her footing. However, The Impossible is a disaster true story tale, which will appeal to all members. Zero Dark Thirty is definitely going to get some controversy for its themes. However, it will appeal to those who voted for The Hurt Locker. I am conflicted.

Screenplay nomination predictions due tomorrow.