2014 Oscar Predictions: The Screenplays

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. Spike Jonze, Her
This is a total outside guess, but after seeing a list of potential nominees, I think that this just fits the bill for a true winner. Spike Jonze has yet to win an Oscar, despite being nominated before. Also, this film is going to have originality and the story's basic idea is nothing less of relevant, especially with the advent of Siri technology.

2. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

Woody is on a hot streak right now. Blue Jasmine is his best film in years, and the film certainly deserves recognition. It will, in this category. The film handled the dramatic and comedic aspects in a way no other director could. Great movie.

3. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
If their most off-kilter films earn nominations (A Serious Man), that must mean that a more mainstream Coen picture with even better reception deserves a nomination.

4. Eric Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
Another man on a hot streak, David O. Russell will probably nab a nomination for this political thriller. Looks good.

5. Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks 
I think between this and Gravity, the wittier dialogue in this will trump the technical lingo and nervous screaming of Gravity. If there's any consolation, Gravity most definitely will trump Saving Mr. Banks in the visual categories.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
Winter is already well-known across Hollwood with his work on the TV show Boardwalk Empire. This latest Scorsese picture looks really exciting, awesome, and funny. I really can't wait.

2. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Django Unchained is really this film's crux. This movie, discussing slavery, will get more mainstream recognition because of Django. However, I don't think the Academy will want to recognize two slavery films in two years, especially in such familiar categories. At least a film by Steve McQueen will get Academy recognition in the first place.

3. E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
I think this is one of the strongest Best Picture contenders we've got this year, so I feel it is necessary to predict the film in many prime categories, including screenplay.

4. Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Juile Delpy, Before Midnight
This is the year's best film, without a doubt. The previous film in the series, Before Sunset, managed a nomination in this category nine years ago. I certainly hope that this film in the Before series manages another nom.

5. Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
A preview screening of the film way back in March/April revealed high praise, despite the soapy Weinstein trailers. This is the adaptation of a prestige play, with a prestige cast working on it too. This certainly will get recognized one way or another.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
The buzz has been strong on this since... forever. It's an Oprah performance, that's enough to turn the heads of the Academy.

2. Meryl Streep, August, Osage County
She won so recently, and there's Oprah to reward too. Then again, this is a very meaty part that many people think is actually a leading role, so... I won't be surprised if something happens.

3. Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
Foxcatcher matches the perfect Oscar meld for me: A film with a lot less pre-release buzz, surging into play by a director that has yet to win, but is pretty well-regarded. Yeah, that sounds like Foxcatcher. This is a real outside shot, but if Sony Pictures Classics plays their cards right, they might get something big with Foxcatcher, and drag Vanessa Redgrave along with them.

4. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Though I liked Fruivale Station (not nearly as much as others), I found Octavia Spencer's work to be superb. Oscar worthy, especially since it is better than her work on The Help. She's got Harvey Weinstein helping her too, so I think a nomination is good. A win? Nah, Harvey has Oprah to support too.

5. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor/Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Both sights to be seen. Right now I'm split, since both films are not making festival appearances, I'm judging off what people think of the trailers. Diaz seems to have a meatier part, but Lawrence seems to be going on a hot streak of sorts, so... we'll see.

Check back soon for screenplay predictions!

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

The Oscar frenzy is dawning upon us film fans, starting next week when Cuaron's Gravity premiers in Venice. Before then, I plan to finish what I started last month: the first round of Oscar nominee predictions!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
After losing a bit of buzz due to the lack of festival presence, Foxcatcher is bounding back with potential Oscar dominance with a release date (December 20th) AND a first image. Mark Ruffalo looks like a perfect winning contender due to three things:

-His character dies in a true story (The Academy might recognize that)
-He has been nominated before, but has yet to win (The Academy has been giving out a lot of first-time prizes lately)
-Mark is at a perfect spot in his career, with his role as the Hulk and many new movies coming out.

2. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Since Tom Hanks has two Oscar contending films (this and Captain Phillips), he is going to get his name thrown around a lot on the ballots. Especially since I think this role looks like a leading role, he has one more distinct advantage. He's also playing Walt Disney, if that helps (it definitely doesn't hurt).

3. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
Despite this film not showing on the festival circuit, this film looks like a mix of pulpy and sleek crime fun. Javier Bardem won the last time he worked with Cormac McCarthy material (the brilliant No Country for Old Men), so I think he has a good shot at a nomination with a showy role (that hair!) that also touches on mass drug production like the currently popular TV show Breaking Bad.

4. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Three films with Steve McQueen (not The Great Escape Steve) should result in some proper recognition. The last time a white character in a supporting role with a fantastic beard won an Oscar was last year, so this sort of role is not a taboo (unlike genitalia flaunting in Shame)

5. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Fans in the Academy of Thirty Seconds to Mars may vote for Leto... just because. Some will due to the extreme weight loss he went through with Matt McC(I'm not even going to try). Focus Features hasn't had a breadwinner in a while, so let's see if Dallas Buyers Club is as good as it looks.

Check back tomorrow for Best Supporting Actress predictions!

2014 Oscars: Best Actress predictions (7/10/13)

Time for another big category, and this year, this category is up in the air (again). However, predicting will not hurt at all.

1. Naomi Watts, Diana
The long overdue Naomi Watts will finally win... hopefully. A lot of this depends on the film' quality. Right now I'm expecting a film rating of 65%-70% on RottenTomatoes.

2. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Every year Meryl Streep makes a movie, she must be noted as a potential nominee. Her performance has actually been seen by a small audience, and the reception so far is good. Let's see how much cynicism the Academy can handle.

3. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Every time Kate Winslet make a movie, she also must be recognized as a potential contender. This time, she is directed by Jason Reitman, a man who can usually make Oscar-worthy performances. The again, Young Adult was unfairly snubbed out of Best Actress and Supporting Actor.

4. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Maybe I am bias. But I think that if there was any contender that has not been a nominee in this category, it ought to be Julie Delpy, with a performance displaying high range and in a film that will most likely receive love from the older Academy members/hipster ones.

5. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
Last year Nicole Kidman almost became a surprise nominee for the little-seen The Paperboy. However, her chances at a nomination look significantly higher, as she is playing former leading lady Grace Kelly, and is also backed by the Weinstein Company. However, can she pull off Grace Kelly (I'm not sure that she can, personally).

Check back soon for more nomination predictions!

2014 Oscars: Best Actor predictions (7/6/2013)

Oscar season's begin is just more than a month away, with Venice starting in late August. Still, there is a certain amount of time to still do Oscar prognostication!

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Leo has been consistently snubbed for nominations, including his most recent work in Django Unchained. Again, he has Scorsese directing him, and I think this time he might win.

2. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Tom Hanks is pure Oscar-gold. This film has a distinct advantage due to him being the distinct star of the film, and his likability will be guarantee value on the campaign trail. Then again, he has won two time before, so... I have him as second most likely.

3. Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Steve Carrell is one of recent comedy's shining stars, but that will only make his portrayal of schizophrenic John DuPont only more surprising. Bennett Miller, the director, is also 2-for-2 when it comes to Best Actor nominations, and even leading to a win for Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Capote.

4. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Matt McConaughey is having an extremely incredible hot streak in films lately. He was in Jeff Nichols' Mud, and was the best part. He hasn't done a rom-com since 2009! Either way, this film is already recieving publicity due to McConaughey's extreme weight-loss as AIDS activist Ron Woodruff.

5. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Oscar Isaac is a true character actor, and this will be a guaranteed breakout role for the actor. The trailer portrays his growly singing and his poor condition. It is a guaranteed contender for CBS Films. I think this film will make a big impact on the campaign trail, so Oscar Isaac will be swept up with the film.

I also would like to mention Bruce Dern's work in Nebraska, a role that might fare better in the Supporting Actor category.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Trying to predict next year's Best Picture winner and nominees is about as easy as throwing a dart on the center of a dartboard... from 10 yards away. Moral of the story is, that it is pointless and near-impossible.

1. The Monuments Men
George Clooney has yet to win his directing Oscar, and this is a very attractive project for the Academy to vote for. It is in WWII, a true story, and has an all-star cast. If this wins director for Clooney, it might as well  win picture.

2. Untitled David O. Russell Abscam Project
That is a mouthful! At least this is not the final project title. This is also a true political thriller, like Monuments Men and recent victor Argo. David O. Russell has yet to win his Oscar, so chances are this could be his prize winning film if it turns out well. This also has an all-star cast, boasting the likes of Christian Bale, Jen Lawrence, and Bradley Cooper (just to name a few).

3. The Wolf of Wall Street
Another film with an unrewarded component. This time, it is actor Leonardo DiCaprio, in a part he has described as 'his best one yet'. Scorsese is behind the camera, and his last film Hugo did very well at the Oscars. Let this be an indicator of name recognition.

4. Foxcatcher
Bennet Miller is king when it comes to biopics. Both Capote and Moneyball were nominees in their respective years. This one might have winning performance with Mark Ruffalo as a late wrestler killed by a schizophrenic (Steve Carell).

5. The Counselor
Brad Pitt, the popular actor. Cormac McCarthy, the popular writer. Ridley Scott, the popular director. 20th Century Fox, the popular studio. Javier Bardem, ANOTHER popular actor! Need I say more?

The remaining 5 films I think have a shot at a nom are listed below. (in order!)
6. Captain Phillips
7. August: Osage County
8. Nebraska
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Fruitvale

Maybe none of these will be nominees. Maybe all of them will be. We'll find out in 10 months...

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS!

A third year of prognostication comes to a close, and its another year where the true best picture of the year DOES NOT WIN! (You can view all my picks here.)

Best Picture:
ARGO

Best Director:
 STEVEN SPIELBERG, LINCOLN

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Best Supporting Actor:
Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN

Best Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway, LES MISERABLES

Best Original Screenplay:
Mark Boal, ZERO DARK THIRTY

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Chris Terrio, ARGO