2014 Oscar Predictions. Final.

So it ends here. One of the most convoluted and hopelessly aimless years in Oscar history has ended. Here's my predictions for what's gonna take home gold on Sunday.

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

BEST ACTOR

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Spike Jonze, Her

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Great Beauty

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Frozen

BEST DOCUMENTARY

20 Feet from Stardom

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Get a Horse!

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

The Voorman Problem (idk)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Lady in Number 6 (idk)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Gravity

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Let it Go (Frozen)

BEST FILM EDITING
Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING

Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Great Gatsby

BEST MAKEUP

Dallas Buyers Club

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Great Gatsby

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING / MIXING

Gravity

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity

It's been a month... what have I missed?

I think I'm using the same images with every Oscar post I do.

Alright, I've slacked severely. In the past month, I haven't written a word on my site. Why? Because I just forgot. In the dead heat of the Oscar race, I lost interest. It's a three-horse race between American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave, and Gravity, with each one winning different prizes and hardly moving anywhere, I just lost interest in the Oscars. I love movies all the same, but this year is hopelessly exhausting.

PGA
Best Picture: Gravity AND 12 Years a Slave
Gravity is so close to being a solid lock for Best Picture, but every BP prize it wins in the big shows are ties, as seen with the LAFCA and PGA. Okay. American Hustle is probably the weakest horse in the three horse race, but it's still one of the strongest in the nine horse scheme of things.

WGA
Original Screenplay: Her, Spike Jonze
Adapted Screenplay: Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
The Her love is strong for screenplay, because it also happened to take the Golden Globe prize for screenplay. Even Tina Fey, when heckling the film in her monologue, had to mention that she loved it. It's the weirdest thing of the year, but one of the most lovable. Come Oscar night, I'm crossing my fingers for Her, but American Hustle is still an undeniably strong contender. For Adapted Screenplay, WGA rule shenanigans eliminated 12 Years a Slave, which would have been the clear winner had it been nominated. The clear winner was Terrence Winter for his bonkers The Wolf of Wall Street, but nope, the unspectacular Captain Phillips had to upset. I quote The Wolf of Wall Street in conversation now (...goes up, down, sideways, in circles...), but I can hardly remember a good line from Captain Phillips (They'a R nawt heer to fish). Quotability doesn't determine the quality of a script, but let's leave it at this: I was never bored during The Wolf of Wall Street, but one hour of Captain Phillips put me half to sleep.

DGA
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Out of all the nominees, Cuaron was the only true visionary. Simple as that.

BAFTA
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best British Film: Gravity
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay: David O. Russell, Eric Warren Singer, American Hustle
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jeff Pope, Steve Coogan, Philomena
So this is a truncated list of winners, but these are the 'big' awards. And the BAFTA group is kind of painting an augmented picture, especially since Dallas Buyers Club and Her weren't nominated for anything (lack pf viewership can be easily blamed). So in a year where the love is being shared, do you think the shared love could be changed if Dallas and Her entered the picture? No matter. The Best Picture winner here only took two prizes, the other being Best Actor. And to think we all thought after Telluride, that 12 Years a Slave would sweep the circuits, a la Return of the King!. It's a testament to the quality of filmmaking that sprouted from 2013, where all films were good if they weren't titled Lee Daniels' The Butler, even Captain Phillips has some admirable components. Notice how despite winning Best Pic, 12 lost the screenplay prize to Philomena, a film with a British advantage called Steve Coogan. It won't translate overseas on the 2nd, and despite loving the script to 12 more than Philomena, what Coogan and Pope did was make a safe, solid, sweet, and superb script that got some worthy recognition this year. Gravity took home the most prizes of night, so it is still a formidable contender for the top prize. Hustle took Best Original Screenplay, but Her wasn't nominated, so Oscar night should be more interesting.

Expect my Oscar Opinions series to restart soon, especially since I haven't yet done reviews of best picture nominees like Philomena and Captain Phillips. Stay tuned.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Adapted Screenplay Nomination Predictions!

1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
It's a great screenplay, Shakespearean with its screenplay. The dialogue is wonderful, but the pacing is poor. Leading film contender and pretty much a lock for a screenplay win.

2. Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
Winter's energy is boundless, contagious, and infectious. Worthy of all its praise, it's one of the film's best aspects, and I'll be surprised if it wasn't nominated.

3. Ethan Hawke, Julie Delpy, Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
No, its not my bias kicking in, the film's screenplay is the one thing that's playing into the Oscars. I wish it was a lock for Best Picture, but hey, beggars can't be choosers!

4. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
It's going to be nominated. No comment.

5. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
#Philomania

Other films to consider are The Spectacular Now (oh how I wish it was nominated!), Tracey Letts' August: Osage and even Lone Survivor, which did manage a WGA nom.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actor Nomination Predictions!

Jared Leto has a cat and its in the bag.

1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Again, Jared Leto has a cat and its in the bag. He's won so many precursors and critics groups prizes.

2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Seriously powerful stuff. Fassbender is finally getting his first Oscar nom, and it couldn't be a better film to have a nominate him for. He treats performance brutality with incredible weight.

3. James Gandolfini, Enough Said
This is the one notable film of the year that I have yet to see, along with Philomena. I've always liked Gandolfini, and there's no better way to celebrate his life than with an Oscar nomination.

4. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
I honestly can't tell you what's so great about Abdi's performance. Sure, he hold his own against THE Tom Hanks, but what separates Abdi from his co-stars? You tell me. Others like him enough to give him Golden Globe and SAG nominations though.

5. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
When it came down to Daniel Bruhl and Cooper, I had to pick Cooper. He's a great actor, and his role is more alive than what Bruhl does with Niki Lauda in Rush. Rush also has a major hurdle with Abdi too, and I've seen Abdi on the campaign trail a whole lot more than Bruhl. Maybe another year.

But if you do see a wildcard / dark horse contender, it will probably by Daniel Bruhl. And imagine, it was only a month ago when Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks) appeared to be a lock!

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Actor Nomination Predictions!

This is the year's most packed category. Maybe this could be like the Emmys, where there were seven Best Actress nominees.

1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Geez this guy is great. He's great in the movie, he has Mud on his resume, ran away with the first ten minutes of The Wolf of Wall Street, and also is incredible in the first episode of True Detective. God he's on a hot streak. And the best way to reward Matthew McConaughey is with an Oscar. Nomination, at least.

2. Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave
What a triumphant performance. Really. This movie is great, and Ejiofer owns it.

3. Bruce Dern, Nebraska 
Yo. The movie's good, and Dern was probably the best part of it. It's funny on paper, and right below it is withering humanity and regret. And Dern, a well-liked Academy member, might get his nomination almost like a lifetime achievement sort of deal.

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Quality film, and DiCaprio being an actor that tends to overact, totally owns this role that is so unhinged and so damn crazy. Also winning the Golden Globe doesn't hurt.

5. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
He's Tom Hanks. Two-time Oscar winner in two years. Also the movie's based off a true story, that doesn't hurt.

Also don't forget about Robert Redford (All is Lost) and Christian Bale (American Hustle), two performances that would easily slide in if it was less crowded.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Picture Nomination Predictions!

So I've been slacking, no big deal. Final predictions, here goes nothing!

1. American Hustle
Winner of three Golden Globes, including Amy Adams. David O. Russell is on a hot streak too, so here's what's up: this movie is packing the heat. If we had a winner as of now, it would be American Hustle.

2. 12 Years a Slave
Enough said. No, not the Nicole Holofecener one. This film, despite winning only one Globe, took the Best Drama one. Winner of the TIFF People's Choice prize. Yea, it's a lock for a nom.

3. Gravity
Every year has one film that's a visual amazement. And those films were Avatar, Inception (not 3D, but still), Hugo, and Life of Pi. The list of films listed above were major Oscar contenders in their years, and Gravity might be the strongest one of recent memory. It's certainly the best one. And Cuaron's Globe win doesn't hurt at all.

4. Nebraska
Everyone's eating up this small town flick by the deadpan quirk man Alexander Payne. It's good, yea, but most people seem to like the movie more than me. I can see why.

5. Her
It's the best film since Martin Scorsese's GoodFellas. I know that the movie has an audience, and I'm part of it. It's so good. I don't have to hope for votes, though, it's bound to get nominated. It's so worthy.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Amid the controversy is a passionate fanbase. It's a great movie, no doubt. Masterpiece level really. And since voters can't mark films they hate, the film's fanbase is bound to get it nominated.

7. Captain Phillips
Probably the weakest out of all nominees. I really can't see it getting number one votes, but it's hit all the guilds, and that's what counts. Whatever, I'll count it as a nominee.

8. Saving Mr. Banks
Another Tom Hanks picture, supported only by Emma Thompson's lead performance. One month ago we were looking at the possible winner, now we're just seeing a movie headed for two noms.

9. Dallas Buyers Club
The underdog of the Oscar season. It's been on the PGA, the WGA, the SAG... and McConaughey plus Leto really make the film a contenda. Actors will vote this one high.

10. Inside Llewyn Davis
Good god I wished this one was a lock. It's the best film by the Coen brothers. Really. Despite falling off the WGA and PGA list, the film did win the National Society of Film Critics and AFI, so it's got a fanbase. The Academy has a thing for the directing duo, since True Grit surprised with 10 noms and A Serious Man was a total surprise in 2009.

Look out for Blue Jasmine, Fruitvale Station and Philomena. This year is so packed.

DGA Nominees!

So the nominations are in, and it's fine. Nothing too surprising.

Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
David O. Russell, American Hustle

PGA and WGA announce, recognize Dallas Buyers Club, skunk

I mean, Dallas Buyers Club is a pretty solid flick, but over Inside Llewyn Davis? How about no.

American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

...and the WGA nominees.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Dallas Buyers Club

Her

Nebraska

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

August: Osage County

Before Midnight

Captain Phillips

Lone Survivor

The Wolf of Wall Street

AFI Top 10 Films of 2013!

I've always had a soft spot for the AFI Top 10, because it was a list that recognized Terrence Malick's epic The Tree of Life. This soft spot still continues, because the the top 10 released today is fantastic. (WOOOOO NO BUTLER)

AFI MOVIES OF THE YEAR
12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
FRUITVALE STATION
GRAVITY
HER
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
NEBRASKA
SAVING MR. BANKS
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Director (11/20/13)

1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Usually, the year's best picture and best director coincide. Last year, a unique exception, will probably not be repeated. When there is a film getting an overwhelming amount of praise like 12 Years, that could only mean that the film will win and sweep it's visionary director along with it. It also happens that many of the most recent best picture winners are from the the director's third film (Argo, The Artist, The King's Speech).

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
If there was any competition to McQueen, it would most definitely by Alfonso Cuaron. Having directed Gravity with visual excellence and revolutionizing visual effects with his cameraman Emmanuel Lubezki, there is no way that Gravity could be ignored.

3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
O. Russell might be one of the best directors of this decade, with both The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook. Judging by the commercials and clips, the movie looks like great fun, and at the least, fun. Though the film has yet to be seen, there's no harm in counting him in.

4. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Because it's Martin Scorsese. Predictions can change, but right now this picture looks strong and counting him out would be wrong (excuse the rhyme).

5. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
I'm split between this directing duo and Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips, but I think the Coens are at an advantage. Those that have seen the film and love it really do love it. It's hard not to count out the Coens, because they have a fanbase within the Academy. I mean, between True Grit and Inception, who should've been nominated?

Keep an eye out for:
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
The guys that liked Zero Dark Thirty probably enjoyed this one too. It also stars Tom Hanks and is based off a true story, so that should please the Academy too.

Asgahar Farhadi, The Past
Don't underestimate the 25-man team at Sony Pictures Classics. They know how to get the nominations, as seen by what they've done with Amour. Even A Separation managed a screenplay nomination. This is a tight year, but anything unexpected can happen.

John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
This is a real crowdpleaser, and nothing can get the Academy more worked up than a crowdpleaser besides a true story.... it just happens that this film is both! What it doesn't have is name recognition. When you're a director going up against Scorsese and the Coens, you're climbing an uphill slope.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture (11/16/13)

The last time I did a Best Picture prediction post was in May, when the Cannes Film Festival ended and Foxcatcher was still planned to come out this year. Oh the memories.

1. 12 Years a Slave
A prime release date. High acclaim. Based off a true story/ Great screenplay. Strong performances. Right now this looks like the film to beat, and one that maybe no one will come March. Did I mention that this film was based off a
true story?

2. Gravity
In any other year, this film would be a lock for a win. However, with 12 Years a Slave, this film is going to play second fiddle. Still, this film should be patting itself on the back for Bullock's incredible one-woman performance and the smashing box office success this film was.

3. American Hustle
Directed by maybe the most successful director of this decade, David O. Russell. A stellar cast working the reigns and the six-minute p
review out of the AFI Fest is so far saying good things. December cannot come any sooner.

4. Captain Phillips
Though I did not like this film as much as many other people did, you simply can't count this one out of the race. The performances by Tom Hanks and Barkhad Abdi are worthy of acclaim, and this film does have what it takes to amass the #1 votes.

5. Saving Mr. Banks
Another Tom Hanks feature, but with 1990's Oscar champ Emma Thompson leading. This is the sweet stuff that will appeal to a certain Oscar crowd. Word out of London and AFI says that this film isn't shabby too.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Is this Shutter Island or Hugo? Casino or GoodFellas? Either way, this film is hotly anticipated, and one cannot simply count out Scorsese.

7. Inside Llewyn Davis
A hit out of Cannes, and if A Serious Man managed a nom, shouldn't this one be a lock? Like Scorsese, you simply cannot count out the Coens.

8. Her
The Academy has recognized Spike Jonze's Adaptation and Being John Malkovich, and word from NYFF says that this one is trump. It it just too crowded? Expect a screenplay nomination at least.

9. Nebraska
This is a strong film in a strong year, but again, is it just too crowded? The chances for Dern earning an acting nomination seem to be increasingly likely, so this could go two ways: Many nominations for the film, or just the acting and screenplay nomination.

Doesn't matter, with films like these, this is maybe the strongest year in film since 2007 or maybe even 1999. Wow.

Don't count out these films though:

Blue is the Warmest Color
Expect critics groups to go gaga for Blue. With a 3
hour runtime and publicity between feuding actors and director Abdellatif Kechiche, this film just might get the attention necessary to warrant viewers and #1 votes. Also since this film is ineligible for the Foreign prize, there's a slim chance that the Academy might want to find a way to reward this film. Also a dark horse contender in this film is lead actress Adele Exarchopolous, a fresh face that's already been doing some campaigning on her part.

Blue Jasmine
Cate Blanchett is still the one to top for the Best Actress category, and this is also Allen's best film since Crimes and Misdemeanors. This is bubbling under the Best Picture pack, but Sony Pictures Classics is a mighty mouse in a lion's game: they consistently nab foreign language Oscars and last year got five nominations for Amour.

The Butler and August: Osage County
Both of these films have stellar casts, despite mixed reception (I can testify about The Butler). These two ar films that will easily appeal to the acting branch.

2014 Oscars: Best Actor predictions (7/6/2013)

Oscar season's begin is just more than a month away, with Venice starting in late August. Still, there is a certain amount of time to still do Oscar prognostication!

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Leo has been consistently snubbed for nominations, including his most recent work in Django Unchained. Again, he has Scorsese directing him, and I think this time he might win.

2. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Tom Hanks is pure Oscar-gold. This film has a distinct advantage due to him being the distinct star of the film, and his likability will be guarantee value on the campaign trail. Then again, he has won two time before, so... I have him as second most likely.

3. Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Steve Carrell is one of recent comedy's shining stars, but that will only make his portrayal of schizophrenic John DuPont only more surprising. Bennett Miller, the director, is also 2-for-2 when it comes to Best Actor nominations, and even leading to a win for Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Capote.

4. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Matt McConaughey is having an extremely incredible hot streak in films lately. He was in Jeff Nichols' Mud, and was the best part. He hasn't done a rom-com since 2009! Either way, this film is already recieving publicity due to McConaughey's extreme weight-loss as AIDS activist Ron Woodruff.

5. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Oscar Isaac is a true character actor, and this will be a guaranteed breakout role for the actor. The trailer portrays his growly singing and his poor condition. It is a guaranteed contender for CBS Films. I think this film will make a big impact on the campaign trail, so Oscar Isaac will be swept up with the film.

I also would like to mention Bruce Dern's work in Nebraska, a role that might fare better in the Supporting Actor category.

Post-Cannes Best Picture predictions!

Blue is the Warmest Color won the big prize at Cannes, but the real winner was the Coen's Inside Llewyn Davis, a film that simply captivated the fest and is now an Oscar frontrunner (literally, with lead Oscar Isaac). However, I still think our winner has yet to be seen.

1. Foxcatcher
The last time a best picture winner came out in December was Million Dollar Baby, and even then the film was a somewhat of an underdog. I think Foxcatcher has what it takes to win due to a strong cast (Steve Carell, Channing Tatum, Mark Ruffalo, Vanessa Redgrave), a strong director (two-time BP nominee Bennett Miller) and an undecided release date that will most likely free the film of any controversy before the big show.

2. American Hustle
Usually directors without a win seem to contend better than directors that have wins under their belt. David O'Russell seems like a director prime for a win (Silver Linings Playbook and The Fighter were both Academy hits). A top-notch cast also does not hurt (Amy Adams, Christian Bale, Jennifer Lawrence, Jeremy Renner, and Bradley Cooper). Oh yeah, did I mention that both this and Foxcatcher are based off true stories? OSCAR BAIT!

3. The Wolf of Wall Street
The third true story in a row, and the third in a row with a top notch cast (Leo Dicaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Jean Dudjardin, Jonah Hill, Kyle Chandler) and Martin Scorsese behind the director's chair.

4. The Monuments Men
Directed by George Clooney. Which is the film's achille heal. Clooney only has one Best Picture nomination, and despite Ides of March being his best film, he only got a Screenplay nomination. Still, Clooney is on a hot streak with producing Argo. This film is still a contender!

5. Inside Llewyn Davis
This is a film that has been screened already at Cannes, to extreme critical acclaim. I don't know anyone that doesn't like it.

6. Before Midnight
With up to 10 slots now, I think finally a 'Before' film will get a nomination. Finally!

7. Captain Phillips
Tom Hanks in a true story by Oscar-nominee Paul Greengrass. 'Nuff said.

8. August: Osage County
The Weinstein Company is bound to get a nomination, and this one is bound to be it. Guaranteed SAG nomination.

Captain Phillips trailer!

Trailer for Paul Greengrass' Captain Phillips. In the style of  the masterful United 93, I'm game.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Trying to predict next year's Best Picture winner and nominees is about as easy as throwing a dart on the center of a dartboard... from 10 yards away. Moral of the story is, that it is pointless and near-impossible.

1. The Monuments Men
George Clooney has yet to win his directing Oscar, and this is a very attractive project for the Academy to vote for. It is in WWII, a true story, and has an all-star cast. If this wins director for Clooney, it might as well  win picture.

2. Untitled David O. Russell Abscam Project
That is a mouthful! At least this is not the final project title. This is also a true political thriller, like Monuments Men and recent victor Argo. David O. Russell has yet to win his Oscar, so chances are this could be his prize winning film if it turns out well. This also has an all-star cast, boasting the likes of Christian Bale, Jen Lawrence, and Bradley Cooper (just to name a few).

3. The Wolf of Wall Street
Another film with an unrewarded component. This time, it is actor Leonardo DiCaprio, in a part he has described as 'his best one yet'. Scorsese is behind the camera, and his last film Hugo did very well at the Oscars. Let this be an indicator of name recognition.

4. Foxcatcher
Bennet Miller is king when it comes to biopics. Both Capote and Moneyball were nominees in their respective years. This one might have winning performance with Mark Ruffalo as a late wrestler killed by a schizophrenic (Steve Carell).

5. The Counselor
Brad Pitt, the popular actor. Cormac McCarthy, the popular writer. Ridley Scott, the popular director. 20th Century Fox, the popular studio. Javier Bardem, ANOTHER popular actor! Need I say more?

The remaining 5 films I think have a shot at a nom are listed below. (in order!)
6. Captain Phillips
7. August: Osage County
8. Nebraska
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Fruitvale

Maybe none of these will be nominees. Maybe all of them will be. We'll find out in 10 months...