2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Director Nomination Predictions!

I'm a hunter shooting with a crappy gun in the dark when it comes to this category. Really, this category messed with everyone last year, especially since Bigelow and Affleck weren't nominated last year.

1. David O. Russell, American Hustle
The leading best picture contender, and it's pretty much a lock for a nom. Actually the whole top three is.

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Yo. Seriously. Visual movies are the ones that fit the directing category best, and Gravity is no exception. Actually, I don't know how to rank
the top three, all that matters that they are locks.

3. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
One of the best directed films of the year, crafted by a true artist. Totally worthy of the director recognition.

4. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
He's Scorsese. Not always a winner, but his seventy-one year old energy is
too infectious to ignore in such a stylistic picture.

5. Spike Jonze, Her
Beautifully crafted American masterpiece. Has such a huge fanbase, and the film is amazing. And even if her isn't recognized tomorrow, he is a lock for the screenplay category.

Keep your eyes peeled for Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), and the Coens (Inside Llewyn Davis).

DGA Nominees!

So the nominations are in, and it's fine. Nothing too surprising.

Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
David O. Russell, American Hustle

Boston Film Critcs gives top prize to 12 Years a Slave, loves Enough Said and Nebraska.

So they're announcing today too. Busy day, eh?

BEST EDITING

Rush

BEST MUSIC

Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST NEW FILMMAKER

Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

BEST ANIMATED FILM

The Wind Rises

BEST DOCUMENTARY

The Act of Killing

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity

BEST ENSEMBLE

Nebraska

BEST SCREENPLAY 

Nicole Holofocener, Enough Said

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

James Gandolfini, Enough Said

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (or James Gandolfini, IDK)

BEST ACTOR

Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Wadjda

NYFCC winner predictions!

The NYFCC (New York Film Critics Circle) and the National Board of Review will be announcing their award winning films on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. I've always said Oscar season started in Cannes, and I've said it started at Venice and TIFF, but honestly, this Tuesday and Wednesday are the honest start of the Oscar race. Let's start with the NYFCC.

When it comes down to Best Picture, NYFCC chooses films that happen to have what I'm calling 'the metascore correlation': The idea that films with a metascore of 90 or above on Metacritic have the highest likelihood of winning. Last year, Zero Dark Thirty won with a metascore of 95, The Social Network won with a 95, and The Hurt Locker won with a 94. 2011's winner, The Artist, won having a score of 87, the closest movie of the year to be near 90 besides A Separation.

This year, we have to strong contenders that are above 90: Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with 96 and 97 respectively. 12 Years a Slave is at an advantage for having more scores of 100 (and having the higher score overall), so I predict it will win Best Picture come Tuesday.

Best Director and Picture correlate usually, so I'll say Steve McQueen will win the director prize. NYFCC likes to clump film performances together for acting prizes, like last year McConaughey's supporting actor win for Magic Mike and Bernie. I predict McConaughey to win again for Dallas Buyers Club, and his work in Mud. Best Actress will probably go to Cate Blanchett, or maybe even Adele Exarchopolous for Blue is the Warmest Color. Exarchopolous will probably win the LAFCA and NSFC prizes, so for now I'll say, put your money on Blanchett in Blue Jasmine. (I don't think anyone bets money over this, though).

Supporting Actor will go to Michael Fassbender for his tremendous work in 12 Years a Slave, and Supporting Actress will go to Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave. To reward the best film of the year, Before Midnight will probably take the screenplay prize (it sure deserves it!). Foreign Film will probably go to Blue is the Warmest Color. A complete, uncluttered list of predictions are below.

Best Film
12 Years a Slave (alt. The Wolf of Wall Street, Inside Llewyn Davis)
Best Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave (alt. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity, Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street)
Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club, Mud (alt. Robert Redford, All is Lost, Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave)
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (alt. Adele Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color, Sandra Bullock, Gravity)
Best Supporting Actor
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave (alt. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club, Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street)
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita N'yongo, 12 Years a Slave (alt. June Squibb, Nebraska, Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle)
Best Screenplay
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight (alt. Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street, John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave)
Best Foreign Film
Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue is the Warmest Color (Paolo Sorrentio, The Great Beauty, Asghar Farhadi, The Past)
Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Best Animated Film
Hayao Miyazaki, The Wind Rises
Best First Film
Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Director (11/20/13)

1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Usually, the year's best picture and best director coincide. Last year, a unique exception, will probably not be repeated. When there is a film getting an overwhelming amount of praise like 12 Years, that could only mean that the film will win and sweep it's visionary director along with it. It also happens that many of the most recent best picture winners are from the the director's third film (Argo, The Artist, The King's Speech).

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
If there was any competition to McQueen, it would most definitely by Alfonso Cuaron. Having directed Gravity with visual excellence and revolutionizing visual effects with his cameraman Emmanuel Lubezki, there is no way that Gravity could be ignored.

3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
O. Russell might be one of the best directors of this decade, with both The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook. Judging by the commercials and clips, the movie looks like great fun, and at the least, fun. Though the film has yet to be seen, there's no harm in counting him in.

4. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Because it's Martin Scorsese. Predictions can change, but right now this picture looks strong and counting him out would be wrong (excuse the rhyme).

5. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
I'm split between this directing duo and Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips, but I think the Coens are at an advantage. Those that have seen the film and love it really do love it. It's hard not to count out the Coens, because they have a fanbase within the Academy. I mean, between True Grit and Inception, who should've been nominated?

Keep an eye out for:
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
The guys that liked Zero Dark Thirty probably enjoyed this one too. It also stars Tom Hanks and is based off a true story, so that should please the Academy too.

Asgahar Farhadi, The Past
Don't underestimate the 25-man team at Sony Pictures Classics. They know how to get the nominations, as seen by what they've done with Amour. Even A Separation managed a screenplay nomination. This is a tight year, but anything unexpected can happen.

John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
This is a real crowdpleaser, and nothing can get the Academy more worked up than a crowdpleaser besides a true story.... it just happens that this film is both! What it doesn't have is name recognition. When you're a director going up against Scorsese and the Coens, you're climbing an uphill slope.

12 Years a Slave (2013)- Movie Review by Sean Wu

A near-masterpiece of a film that highlights the brutality and injustice of American slavery. Chiwetel Ejiofer is Solomon Northup, a free man that is kidnapped into slavery for 12 years before regaining freedom. Ejiofer is brilliant in the film, for he is a character we root for and attach to, and we (the audience) root for anything he does, especially when he defies his masters.