SAG Winner predictions!

The SAG Awards are tonight, and their unusually strong support for August: Osage County and The Butler clearly didn't translate to the Academy Awards.

BEST ENSEMBLE: American Hustle. Because in October, people like me were hailing 12 Years a Slave as the instant winner. I think that the simmering cast here is going to provide a bit of an unsurprising upset.

BEST ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club. He won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice, so he's unstoppable right now. In fact, the SAG seems to factor men's looks into voting, because in 2003 Johnny Depp won for Pirates of the Caribbean. Sorry Chiwetel.

BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. Because.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. Because.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle. She's the hot thing in Hollywood, and she'll be swept up with the Best Ensemble prize. Or vice-versa.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Actress Nomination Predictions!

Best Actress this year is really pointless to predict, since Cate Blanchett is going to win.

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Off the top of my head, the only big prize that Cate Blanchett hasn't bagged is the National Board of Review, which was given to Emma Thompson. Cate Blanchett though- total class act, just sweeping the the circuits with her brilliant work.

2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
It's amazing that Sandra Bullock can go from fierce motherly performances such as The Blind Side to hilarious rom-coms (The Proposal), to this. A tour-de-force, an emotional triumph, a plateau of humanity in an out-of-this-world waltz. If The Blind Side never happened, Bullock would be a lot stronger of a contender, but people just don't like the sound of "Sandra Bullock, two-time Oscar winner", do they?

3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
It's a total crotchety performance, but its the best thing about the movie. Sure its soapier than a Dove bar, but its better than what it should be by Thompson's layered performance. The Academy is sure to love it too.

4. Judi Dench, Philomena
Based off a true story, with Harvey Weinstein by her side. Yep, it's safe for a nom, I think.

5. Amy Adams, American Hustle
Hot off the Golden Globes win, Amy Adams I think can squeak out over the Meryl Streep. Sure, what Meryl does is chew scenery like bubble gum in August: Osage County, but Amy Adams is in the Best Picture contender. Also, her sexy sideboob never hurt anyone either.

Still, don't be surprised if Meryl gets a nomination because she's working with Harvey Weinstein too. If you want to be especially risky, put chips down on Adele Exarchopolous for Blue is the Warmest Color. I can only pray for a nomination for Brie Larson (Short Term 12), but that's wishful thinking.

Boston Film Critcs gives top prize to 12 Years a Slave, loves Enough Said and Nebraska.

So they're announcing today too. Busy day, eh?

BEST EDITING

Rush

BEST MUSIC

Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST NEW FILMMAKER

Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

BEST ANIMATED FILM

The Wind Rises

BEST DOCUMENTARY

The Act of Killing

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity

BEST ENSEMBLE

Nebraska

BEST SCREENPLAY 

Nicole Holofocener, Enough Said

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

James Gandolfini, Enough Said

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (or James Gandolfini, IDK)

BEST ACTOR

Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Wadjda

LA Film Critics award winners reward Gravity AND Her!

Great announcements! Gravity got its biggest traction to date, and it may look like that we all have been underestimating what people thought of when it came to Her. This is an odd critics award session, because rewards were all over the place for so many films. I honestly have no idea where this award season is going.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Her, runner-up Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave, runner-up June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST EDITING:

Gravity, runner-up Upstream Color

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Gravity, runner-up Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Tie! James Franco, Spring Breakers (YES!), Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ANIMATION:

Ernest and Celestine, runner-up The Wind Rises

BEST MUSIC:

Inside Llewyn Davis, runner-up Her

BEST DOCUMENTARY:
Stories We Tell, runner-up The Act of Killing

BEST DIRECTOR:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity, runner-up Spike Jonze, Her

BEST ACTOR:
Bruce Dern, Nebraska, runner-up Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave

BEST SCREENPLAY:
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight (YES!!!), runner-up Spike Jonze, Her


BEST ACTRESS:
Tie!! Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine, Adele Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color

BEST PICTURE:
TIE!!! Gravity AND Her!


BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM:
Blue is the Warmest Color, runner-up The Great Beauty (YAY!)

NEW GENERATION PRIZE:
Megan Ellison (Annapurna Pictures)

LEGACY OF CINEMA:
The Criterion Collection

SPECIAL CITATION:
Creative team of 12 Years a Slave

NYFCC winner predictions!

The NYFCC (New York Film Critics Circle) and the National Board of Review will be announcing their award winning films on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. I've always said Oscar season started in Cannes, and I've said it started at Venice and TIFF, but honestly, this Tuesday and Wednesday are the honest start of the Oscar race. Let's start with the NYFCC.

When it comes down to Best Picture, NYFCC chooses films that happen to have what I'm calling 'the metascore correlation': The idea that films with a metascore of 90 or above on Metacritic have the highest likelihood of winning. Last year, Zero Dark Thirty won with a metascore of 95, The Social Network won with a 95, and The Hurt Locker won with a 94. 2011's winner, The Artist, won having a score of 87, the closest movie of the year to be near 90 besides A Separation.

This year, we have to strong contenders that are above 90: Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with 96 and 97 respectively. 12 Years a Slave is at an advantage for having more scores of 100 (and having the higher score overall), so I predict it will win Best Picture come Tuesday.

Best Director and Picture correlate usually, so I'll say Steve McQueen will win the director prize. NYFCC likes to clump film performances together for acting prizes, like last year McConaughey's supporting actor win for Magic Mike and Bernie. I predict McConaughey to win again for Dallas Buyers Club, and his work in Mud. Best Actress will probably go to Cate Blanchett, or maybe even Adele Exarchopolous for Blue is the Warmest Color. Exarchopolous will probably win the LAFCA and NSFC prizes, so for now I'll say, put your money on Blanchett in Blue Jasmine. (I don't think anyone bets money over this, though).

Supporting Actor will go to Michael Fassbender for his tremendous work in 12 Years a Slave, and Supporting Actress will go to Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave. To reward the best film of the year, Before Midnight will probably take the screenplay prize (it sure deserves it!). Foreign Film will probably go to Blue is the Warmest Color. A complete, uncluttered list of predictions are below.

Best Film
12 Years a Slave (alt. The Wolf of Wall Street, Inside Llewyn Davis)
Best Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave (alt. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity, Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street)
Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club, Mud (alt. Robert Redford, All is Lost, Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave)
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (alt. Adele Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color, Sandra Bullock, Gravity)
Best Supporting Actor
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave (alt. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club, Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street)
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita N'yongo, 12 Years a Slave (alt. June Squibb, Nebraska, Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle)
Best Screenplay
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight (alt. Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street, John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave)
Best Foreign Film
Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue is the Warmest Color (Paolo Sorrentio, The Great Beauty, Asghar Farhadi, The Past)
Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Best Animated Film
Hayao Miyazaki, The Wind Rises
Best First Film
Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Actress (11/22/2013)

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
A lock for a nomination, and maybe a lock for a win. Blanchett, one of the best actresses in the movie business, bit off a brilliant Blanche Dubois-like part offered by the once great Woody Allen. She won for her fun work in The Aviator, but that was a Supporting Oscar. Since she really is one  of the best actresses in the business, she certainly deserves a lead actress prize, and this should be the one that gives it to her.

2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
A sci-fi movie getting an acting nomination? Sandra Bullock, potential two-time Oscar winner? Both sound off, but when you see Gravity, both things seem so possible. Bullock delivers a superb performance as scientist Dr. Ryan Stone, stranded in space alone. And since she is alone for most of the movie, she absolutely CARRIES it. I really don't care who would win, Blanchett or Bullock, because both are excellent. And I'm so glad that I'm not an Academy member, since I won't have to decide.

3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
A relic of 1990's film, Thompson is back with a vengeance in another period drama that is instead set in America over Europe (she is still British!). Mild reactions out of London, but the AFI premiere in LA has spoken many great things about Thompson and Hanks. Will she be recognized? Maybe. Nominated? Definitely.

4. Judi Dench, Philomena
Judi Dench is a pretty well-regarded actress right now, and almost got an acting nomination for a Bond movie last year. This time around she's in a true story that's being backed by the Weinsteins. Definitely one to watch and a serious contender for the top prize.

5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
She's Meryl Streep. With the Weinsteins backing her. The only problem is that I've heard she's not campaigning at all, and I'm not even sure if this is a leading role or a supporting role. She's #5 for now, but she's the weakest one on the list because of...

Keep an eye out for...
Amy Adams, American Hustle
With The Fighter, director David O. Russell got 3 acting nominations (including Adams). With Silver Linings Playbook, O. Russell got nominations in all four acting categories. With American Hustle, he is definitely a man to watch out for. Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, and Jeremy Renner are all on the outside of the nomination bubble and looking in. But with O. Russell at the helm, and assuming the movie's good (which reports from AFI say that the first 6 minutes were), we're going to see some nominations.

Adele Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color
The Academy is not afraid of foreign performances, a la Emmanuelle Riva for Amour. What they are afraid of is sex, which this film is getting almost all of its publicity for. What Exarchopolous has going for her is that she's already started to campaign, and reviews for the film are strong. She probably won't get an O
scar nomination, but she will nab critics prizes, I'm sure.

Kate Winslet, Labor Day
I read Joyce Maynard's Labor Day last week, and it was something I thoroughly enjoyed. It's a great fit for Winslet, and reviews out of TIFF and Telluride suggest her performance is strong. However, consensus is saying the movie isn't, so... maybe a Golden Globe nomination?

RIP
Naomi Watts, Diana
Remember when this movie was supposed to be an Oscar contender? I predicted a tomato score near 60%-70%, but at one point the reviews were at 2%. 2%. Let that soak in. RIP Diana.

Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
The teaser that premiered was actually pretty decent, but never for one second did I think that Nicole Kidman would match Grace Kelly. The film has moved to some undetermined date next year, so for now, RIP Grace of Monaco.
'
Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
The film will go VOD and small theatrical release next year in Spring. Cannes reception was also decently mixed. RIP The Immigrant (I personally preferred the title Lowlife).

Blue Jasmine (2013)- Woman on the verge of a nervous breakdown (3½ Stars)

...and the winner of Best Cast at this year's SAG awards will be Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine. Well, I wish it could be the winner. Blue Jasmine is a film with great dramatic talent and comedic dialogue, especially with Cate Blanchett's leading performance that will rattle your mind.

The Monuments Men trailer.

George Clooney presents: Argo 2: VERSUS HITLER

Silliness aside, I had no idea Bill Murray was in this. If the Academy particularly warms to this, there's a good chance John Goodman could be in three Best Picture winners in a row (he also has Inside Llewyn Davis too)

Sony Pictures Classics love foreign melodrama.

Yesterday I saw Almodovar at his best with Volver, a great film reminiscent of Fellini. So obviously I am excited for his latest film I'm So Excited!. I have heard descriptions of the film reminiscent to Airplane! Check out the trailer below.

I'm so excited for Woody Allen's next project, Blue Jasmine. It has a great dramatic actress (Cate Blanchett) and two of the best living comedic actors (Alec Baldwin and Louis CK). There's no trailer, but there are a few still. Check them out!

Check back soon for my 2014 Oscar nominee predictions.

Masterpieces Classics: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)

Yes, I realize that this film is of recent release, and that may not define it as a classic. But, I cannot deny the film of being a masterpiece because it simply is one. Its future uncertain, but I hope that as I age, I will hear the word "Benjamin Button" and "Classic" used in the same sentence.

I'm sure that most of you know what the story is, but for those who don't, here follows. Benjamin Button, born an old man in the Jazz era, ages backwards. You see his life and history revolve around him, and most of all, his relationship with a dancer named Daisy.