2014 Oscar Predictions. Final.

So it ends here. One of the most convoluted and hopelessly aimless years in Oscar history has ended. Here's my predictions for what's gonna take home gold on Sunday.

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

BEST ACTOR

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Spike Jonze, Her

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Great Beauty

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Frozen

BEST DOCUMENTARY

20 Feet from Stardom

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Get a Horse!

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

The Voorman Problem (idk)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Lady in Number 6 (idk)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Gravity

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Let it Go (Frozen)

BEST FILM EDITING
Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING

Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Great Gatsby

BEST MAKEUP

Dallas Buyers Club

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Great Gatsby

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING / MIXING

Gravity

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity

It's been a month... what have I missed?

I think I'm using the same images with every Oscar post I do.

Alright, I've slacked severely. In the past month, I haven't written a word on my site. Why? Because I just forgot. In the dead heat of the Oscar race, I lost interest. It's a three-horse race between American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave, and Gravity, with each one winning different prizes and hardly moving anywhere, I just lost interest in the Oscars. I love movies all the same, but this year is hopelessly exhausting.

PGA
Best Picture: Gravity AND 12 Years a Slave
Gravity is so close to being a solid lock for Best Picture, but every BP prize it wins in the big shows are ties, as seen with the LAFCA and PGA. Okay. American Hustle is probably the weakest horse in the three horse race, but it's still one of the strongest in the nine horse scheme of things.

WGA
Original Screenplay: Her, Spike Jonze
Adapted Screenplay: Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
The Her love is strong for screenplay, because it also happened to take the Golden Globe prize for screenplay. Even Tina Fey, when heckling the film in her monologue, had to mention that she loved it. It's the weirdest thing of the year, but one of the most lovable. Come Oscar night, I'm crossing my fingers for Her, but American Hustle is still an undeniably strong contender. For Adapted Screenplay, WGA rule shenanigans eliminated 12 Years a Slave, which would have been the clear winner had it been nominated. The clear winner was Terrence Winter for his bonkers The Wolf of Wall Street, but nope, the unspectacular Captain Phillips had to upset. I quote The Wolf of Wall Street in conversation now (...goes up, down, sideways, in circles...), but I can hardly remember a good line from Captain Phillips (They'a R nawt heer to fish). Quotability doesn't determine the quality of a script, but let's leave it at this: I was never bored during The Wolf of Wall Street, but one hour of Captain Phillips put me half to sleep.

DGA
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Out of all the nominees, Cuaron was the only true visionary. Simple as that.

BAFTA
Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best British Film: Gravity
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Best Original Screenplay: David O. Russell, Eric Warren Singer, American Hustle
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jeff Pope, Steve Coogan, Philomena
So this is a truncated list of winners, but these are the 'big' awards. And the BAFTA group is kind of painting an augmented picture, especially since Dallas Buyers Club and Her weren't nominated for anything (lack pf viewership can be easily blamed). So in a year where the love is being shared, do you think the shared love could be changed if Dallas and Her entered the picture? No matter. The Best Picture winner here only took two prizes, the other being Best Actor. And to think we all thought after Telluride, that 12 Years a Slave would sweep the circuits, a la Return of the King!. It's a testament to the quality of filmmaking that sprouted from 2013, where all films were good if they weren't titled Lee Daniels' The Butler, even Captain Phillips has some admirable components. Notice how despite winning Best Pic, 12 lost the screenplay prize to Philomena, a film with a British advantage called Steve Coogan. It won't translate overseas on the 2nd, and despite loving the script to 12 more than Philomena, what Coogan and Pope did was make a safe, solid, sweet, and superb script that got some worthy recognition this year. Gravity took home the most prizes of night, so it is still a formidable contender for the top prize. Hustle took Best Original Screenplay, but Her wasn't nominated, so Oscar night should be more interesting.

Expect my Oscar Opinions series to restart soon, especially since I haven't yet done reviews of best picture nominees like Philomena and Captain Phillips. Stay tuned.

TheScreenTeen's Top 10 Films of 2013 (Honorable Mentions).

It's a long time coming, twenty days overdue, but it is done. It's complete. I have finished my top ten films of 2013, and it's a doozy. In any other year, some films near the bottom of my top twenty would find a way in the middle of a top ten. There's sixteen films I really want to recognize, so that means I do have six honorable mentions. Here they are, in alphabetical order.

All is Lost
I was bored through lots of this movie, in fact I thought near the thirty minute mark that the film

had spliced in repeated takes. But I feel that that was the intention of J.C. Chandor: to feel like Robert Redford in the film, bored, restless, and impatient. He succeeded, no doubt. The Golden Globe-winning score by Alex Ebert is strong, and the performance by Redford is on point.

American Hustle
I thought that this film would be guaranteed a spot on my top ten list, but in retrospect, the film is not nearly as great as some are making it out to be. Performances are confident and assured, like O. Russell's direction, but the film is pretty much just fluff. Highly stylized entertaining fluff, at least.

Blue Jasmine
I love me some '70's Woody Allen, and I can say with great confidence that this is a film by Woody Allen. Not chug-a-film-a-year Woody Allen, but by the auteur Woody Allen. It's his best film since Crimes and Misdemeanors, and I really wish I had room on this year's list for it, but it's just too strong of a year. Cate Blanchett is excellent, and I am so happy that Sally Hawkins got the recognition she deserved from the Academy.

The Great Beauty
It's the leading contender for best foreign language film of the year, and its a worthy one. Direction by Sorrentino is Felliniesque, sumptuous in style and heaving with thoughts of life's regrets.

The Spectacular Now
A great film about young love in the old years of youth. Sure, themes of alcoholism are heavyhanded, but the performances by Miles Teller and Shailene Woodley are superb, spot-on reflections of youth today.

Spring Breakers
There's no doubt in my mind that this film is trash, but it's dreamy, Florida sun-glazed, neon-light, orange-glow, hookers-and-blow, trash. Korine directs with some off the wall ambition, and James Franco is simply haunting as the rapper/pimp Alien. I've got half of the "Look at all my sheit" monologue engraved in my head, if that's a testament to my appreciation.

SAG Winner predictions!

The SAG Awards are tonight, and their unusually strong support for August: Osage County and The Butler clearly didn't translate to the Academy Awards.

BEST ENSEMBLE: American Hustle. Because in October, people like me were hailing 12 Years a Slave as the instant winner. I think that the simmering cast here is going to provide a bit of an unsurprising upset.

BEST ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club. He won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice, so he's unstoppable right now. In fact, the SAG seems to factor men's looks into voting, because in 2003 Johnny Depp won for Pirates of the Caribbean. Sorry Chiwetel.

BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. Because.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. Because.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle. She's the hot thing in Hollywood, and she'll be swept up with the Best Ensemble prize. Or vice-versa.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Original Screenplay Nomination Predictions!

1. Spike Jonze, Her
Whoa, I literally exploded when Her won Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes. I was so happy, really. And now there is just a slight chance that Spike Jonze's masterpiece will win the Oscar it deserves.

2. Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle
It's not really a screenplay when the movie is loosely improvised. It's hilarious, it's fun, breezy. But it's all fluff, really.

3. Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Written ten years ago by a debut writer, it's a total Hollywood story. Doesn't hurt if the movie itself if good too, ya know.

4. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
It's his 48th feature, but Woody Allen really knows how to write a modern rendition, with this one being A Streetcar Named Desire. Take notes Baz Luhrmann.

5. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Word on the street is that voters hate the scene when Llewyn abandons the cat in the snow. Are you kidding me? Just because Llewyn abandons a cat, voters decide to not vote for what might as well be one of the best screenplays of the Coen brothers repertoire, and one of the best of the year? They must be joking really. I can't believe something so smoothly somber yet off-kilter and hilarious could go unrecognized by the WGA. The script is a masterpiece on it's own. But I think it can squeak in tomorrow. The Academy loves the Coens, and A Serious Man, probably their least accessible film, managed
a nomination in this category in 2009.

Keep your eyes peeled for Nicole Holofecener's Enough Said  and Dallas Buyers Club.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Actress Nomination Predictions!

Best Actress this year is really pointless to predict, since Cate Blanchett is going to win.

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Off the top of my head, the only big prize that Cate Blanchett hasn't bagged is the National Board of Review, which was given to Emma Thompson. Cate Blanchett though- total class act, just sweeping the the circuits with her brilliant work.

2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
It's amazing that Sandra Bullock can go from fierce motherly performances such as The Blind Side to hilarious rom-coms (The Proposal), to this. A tour-de-force, an emotional triumph, a plateau of humanity in an out-of-this-world waltz. If The Blind Side never happened, Bullock would be a lot stronger of a contender, but people just don't like the sound of "Sandra Bullock, two-time Oscar winner", do they?

3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
It's a total crotchety performance, but its the best thing about the movie. Sure its soapier than a Dove bar, but its better than what it should be by Thompson's layered performance. The Academy is sure to love it too.

4. Judi Dench, Philomena
Based off a true story, with Harvey Weinstein by her side. Yep, it's safe for a nom, I think.

5. Amy Adams, American Hustle
Hot off the Golden Globes win, Amy Adams I think can squeak out over the Meryl Streep. Sure, what Meryl does is chew scenery like bubble gum in August: Osage County, but Amy Adams is in the Best Picture contender. Also, her sexy sideboob never hurt anyone either.

Still, don't be surprised if Meryl gets a nomination because she's working with Harvey Weinstein too. If you want to be especially risky, put chips down on Adele Exarchopolous for Blue is the Warmest Color. I can only pray for a nomination for Brie Larson (Short Term 12), but that's wishful thinking.

PGA and WGA announce, recognize Dallas Buyers Club, skunk

I mean, Dallas Buyers Club is a pretty solid flick, but over Inside Llewyn Davis? How about no.

American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

...and the WGA nominees.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Dallas Buyers Club

Her

Nebraska

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

August: Osage County

Before Midnight

Captain Phillips

Lone Survivor

The Wolf of Wall Street

NYFCC winner predictions!

The NYFCC (New York Film Critics Circle) and the National Board of Review will be announcing their award winning films on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. I've always said Oscar season started in Cannes, and I've said it started at Venice and TIFF, but honestly, this Tuesday and Wednesday are the honest start of the Oscar race. Let's start with the NYFCC.

When it comes down to Best Picture, NYFCC chooses films that happen to have what I'm calling 'the metascore correlation': The idea that films with a metascore of 90 or above on Metacritic have the highest likelihood of winning. Last year, Zero Dark Thirty won with a metascore of 95, The Social Network won with a 95, and The Hurt Locker won with a 94. 2011's winner, The Artist, won having a score of 87, the closest movie of the year to be near 90 besides A Separation.

This year, we have to strong contenders that are above 90: Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with 96 and 97 respectively. 12 Years a Slave is at an advantage for having more scores of 100 (and having the higher score overall), so I predict it will win Best Picture come Tuesday.

Best Director and Picture correlate usually, so I'll say Steve McQueen will win the director prize. NYFCC likes to clump film performances together for acting prizes, like last year McConaughey's supporting actor win for Magic Mike and Bernie. I predict McConaughey to win again for Dallas Buyers Club, and his work in Mud. Best Actress will probably go to Cate Blanchett, or maybe even Adele Exarchopolous for Blue is the Warmest Color. Exarchopolous will probably win the LAFCA and NSFC prizes, so for now I'll say, put your money on Blanchett in Blue Jasmine. (I don't think anyone bets money over this, though).

Supporting Actor will go to Michael Fassbender for his tremendous work in 12 Years a Slave, and Supporting Actress will go to Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave. To reward the best film of the year, Before Midnight will probably take the screenplay prize (it sure deserves it!). Foreign Film will probably go to Blue is the Warmest Color. A complete, uncluttered list of predictions are below.

Best Film
12 Years a Slave (alt. The Wolf of Wall Street, Inside Llewyn Davis)
Best Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave (alt. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity, Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street)
Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club, Mud (alt. Robert Redford, All is Lost, Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave)
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (alt. Adele Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color, Sandra Bullock, Gravity)
Best Supporting Actor
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave (alt. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club, Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street)
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita N'yongo, 12 Years a Slave (alt. June Squibb, Nebraska, Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle)
Best Screenplay
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight (alt. Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street, John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave)
Best Foreign Film
Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue is the Warmest Color (Paolo Sorrentio, The Great Beauty, Asghar Farhadi, The Past)
Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Best Animated Film
Hayao Miyazaki, The Wind Rises
Best First Film
Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture (11/16/13)

The last time I did a Best Picture prediction post was in May, when the Cannes Film Festival ended and Foxcatcher was still planned to come out this year. Oh the memories.

1. 12 Years a Slave
A prime release date. High acclaim. Based off a true story/ Great screenplay. Strong performances. Right now this looks like the film to beat, and one that maybe no one will come March. Did I mention that this film was based off a
true story?

2. Gravity
In any other year, this film would be a lock for a win. However, with 12 Years a Slave, this film is going to play second fiddle. Still, this film should be patting itself on the back for Bullock's incredible one-woman performance and the smashing box office success this film was.

3. American Hustle
Directed by maybe the most successful director of this decade, David O. Russell. A stellar cast working the reigns and the six-minute p
review out of the AFI Fest is so far saying good things. December cannot come any sooner.

4. Captain Phillips
Though I did not like this film as much as many other people did, you simply can't count this one out of the race. The performances by Tom Hanks and Barkhad Abdi are worthy of acclaim, and this film does have what it takes to amass the #1 votes.

5. Saving Mr. Banks
Another Tom Hanks feature, but with 1990's Oscar champ Emma Thompson leading. This is the sweet stuff that will appeal to a certain Oscar crowd. Word out of London and AFI says that this film isn't shabby too.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Is this Shutter Island or Hugo? Casino or GoodFellas? Either way, this film is hotly anticipated, and one cannot simply count out Scorsese.

7. Inside Llewyn Davis
A hit out of Cannes, and if A Serious Man managed a nom, shouldn't this one be a lock? Like Scorsese, you simply cannot count out the Coens.

8. Her
The Academy has recognized Spike Jonze's Adaptation and Being John Malkovich, and word from NYFF says that this one is trump. It it just too crowded? Expect a screenplay nomination at least.

9. Nebraska
This is a strong film in a strong year, but again, is it just too crowded? The chances for Dern earning an acting nomination seem to be increasingly likely, so this could go two ways: Many nominations for the film, or just the acting and screenplay nomination.

Doesn't matter, with films like these, this is maybe the strongest year in film since 2007 or maybe even 1999. Wow.

Don't count out these films though:

Blue is the Warmest Color
Expect critics groups to go gaga for Blue. With a 3
hour runtime and publicity between feuding actors and director Abdellatif Kechiche, this film just might get the attention necessary to warrant viewers and #1 votes. Also since this film is ineligible for the Foreign prize, there's a slim chance that the Academy might want to find a way to reward this film. Also a dark horse contender in this film is lead actress Adele Exarchopolous, a fresh face that's already been doing some campaigning on her part.

Blue Jasmine
Cate Blanchett is still the one to top for the Best Actress category, and this is also Allen's best film since Crimes and Misdemeanors. This is bubbling under the Best Picture pack, but Sony Pictures Classics is a mighty mouse in a lion's game: they consistently nab foreign language Oscars and last year got five nominations for Amour.

The Butler and August: Osage County
Both of these films have stellar casts, despite mixed reception (I can testify about The Butler). These two ar films that will easily appeal to the acting branch.

2014 Oscar Predictions: The Screenplays

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. Spike Jonze, Her
This is a total outside guess, but after seeing a list of potential nominees, I think that this just fits the bill for a true winner. Spike Jonze has yet to win an Oscar, despite being nominated before. Also, this film is going to have originality and the story's basic idea is nothing less of relevant, especially with the advent of Siri technology.

2. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

Woody is on a hot streak right now. Blue Jasmine is his best film in years, and the film certainly deserves recognition. It will, in this category. The film handled the dramatic and comedic aspects in a way no other director could. Great movie.

3. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
If their most off-kilter films earn nominations (A Serious Man), that must mean that a more mainstream Coen picture with even better reception deserves a nomination.

4. Eric Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
Another man on a hot streak, David O. Russell will probably nab a nomination for this political thriller. Looks good.

5. Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks 
I think between this and Gravity, the wittier dialogue in this will trump the technical lingo and nervous screaming of Gravity. If there's any consolation, Gravity most definitely will trump Saving Mr. Banks in the visual categories.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
Winter is already well-known across Hollwood with his work on the TV show Boardwalk Empire. This latest Scorsese picture looks really exciting, awesome, and funny. I really can't wait.

2. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Django Unchained is really this film's crux. This movie, discussing slavery, will get more mainstream recognition because of Django. However, I don't think the Academy will want to recognize two slavery films in two years, especially in such familiar categories. At least a film by Steve McQueen will get Academy recognition in the first place.

3. E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
I think this is one of the strongest Best Picture contenders we've got this year, so I feel it is necessary to predict the film in many prime categories, including screenplay.

4. Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Juile Delpy, Before Midnight
This is the year's best film, without a doubt. The previous film in the series, Before Sunset, managed a nomination in this category nine years ago. I certainly hope that this film in the Before series manages another nom.

5. Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
A preview screening of the film way back in March/April revealed high praise, despite the soapy Weinstein trailers. This is the adaptation of a prestige play, with a prestige cast working on it too. This certainly will get recognized one way or another.

Blue Jasmine (2013)- Woman on the verge of a nervous breakdown (3½ Stars)

...and the winner of Best Cast at this year's SAG awards will be Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine. Well, I wish it could be the winner. Blue Jasmine is a film with great dramatic talent and comedic dialogue, especially with Cate Blanchett's leading performance that will rattle your mind.

Sony Pictures Classics love foreign melodrama.

Yesterday I saw Almodovar at his best with Volver, a great film reminiscent of Fellini. So obviously I am excited for his latest film I'm So Excited!. I have heard descriptions of the film reminiscent to Airplane! Check out the trailer below.

I'm so excited for Woody Allen's next project, Blue Jasmine. It has a great dramatic actress (Cate Blanchett) and two of the best living comedic actors (Alec Baldwin and Louis CK). There's no trailer, but there are a few still. Check them out!

Check back soon for my 2014 Oscar nominee predictions.