FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS!

A third year of prognostication comes to a close, and its another year where the true best picture of the year DOES NOT WIN! (You can view all my picks here.)

Best Picture:
ARGO

Best Director:
 STEVEN SPIELBERG, LINCOLN

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Best Supporting Actor:
Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN

Best Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway, LES MISERABLES

Best Original Screenplay:
Mark Boal, ZERO DARK THIRTY

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Chris Terrio, ARGO

Oscar Opinions: Lincoln (2012)

This was one of the weirdest movies that had me with a goofy grin on my face.

QUICK OPINION:
I initially gave the picture 3 Stars, but this was out of impatience. The last 10 minutes went on for a good bit too long, and as previously stated, I gave the film 3 Stars just due to a sore bottom. Yes, 10 minutes could have been excised, but upon second thought, the film was incredibly dense and entertaining. Day-Lewis was a wise, well-written, and overall very likable as the titular Lincoln. I do think Sally Field's work in the film has been overestimated, but it is fine work, nonetheless. Major props to Kushner's eloquent screenplay, which had me (mentally) cheering, laughing, and the script also did an incredible job handling all of the subplots.

BEST PERFORMANCE:
No-brainer, but Daniel Day-Lewis as the 16th president. He carried every scene he had, and was in a 7/8 of all the movie.

BEST MOMENT:
Easily all the scenes when Lincoln was telling his stories. All of them were slightly off topic, but they were the main reasons I held a goofy grin for 140 of the 150 minute runtime.

BAFTA Winners!

*BAM* JUSTICE *BAM*       BAFTA emitting too much intelligent voting. 

Django might now be the Original Screenplay frontrunner... unless one considers impulsive ballot filling for Zero Dark Thirty, since it is the only frontrunner contending for WGA. So happy for Christoph Waltz, I honestly hope he wins again.

BEST FILM: Argo

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM: Skyfall

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER: The Imposter

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE: Amour

DOCUMENTARY: Searching For Sugar Man

ANIMATED FILM: Brave

DIRECTOR: Argo - Ben Affleck

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Django Unchained - Quentin Tarantino

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Silver Linings Playbook - David O. Russell

LEADING ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

LEADING ACTRESS: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

ORIGINAL MUSIC: Skyfall - Thomas Newman

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life Of Pi - Claudio Miranda

EDITING: Argo - William Goldenberg

PRODUCTION DESIGN: Les Miserables - Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson

COSTUME DESIGN: Anna Karenina - Jacqueline Durran

MAKE UP & HAIR: Les Miserables - Lisa Westcott

SOUND: Les Miserables - Simon Hayes, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Jonathan Allen, Lee Walpole, John Warhurst

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS: Life of Pi - Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer

SHORT ANIMATION: The Making of Longbird - Will Anderson, Ainslie Henderson

SHORT FILM: Swimmer - Lynne Ramsay, Peter Carlton, Diarmid Scrimshaw

THE EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public): Juno Temple

OUTSTANDING BRITISH CONTRIBUTION TO CINEMA: Tessa Ross

THE BAFTA FELLOWSHIP: Alan Parker

BAFTA predictions.

BAFTA's are one thing I unfortunately have been undermining in my prognostication career. The BAFTA's this year could quite possibly be the turning point for three of the big categories this year- Best Original Screenplay, Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor. As lazy as I am, I have decided not to predict in every category. Like most teens, I am simply too lazy.

The winners will be...

BEST FILM- Argo
BEST BRITISH FILM- Les Miserables (boo boo! Skyfall 4 LYFE!)
BEST DIRECTION- Ben Affleck, Argo
BEST ACTOR- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
BEST ACTRESS- Emmanuelle Riva, Amour (If Chastain wins, I will be happy because she did have the best performance of the year. If Riva wins, I'll be happy for a correct prediction. How cynical of me.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR- Since BAFTA really liked Django, then it is Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY- Michael Haneke, Amour (In reality, I think Zero Dark Thirty will take either of Amour's two big prizes. This is about predicting, and I'm playing it safe with Amour winning both)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY- Chris Terrio, Argo (boo boo! Lincoln!)
BEST FOREIGN FILM- Amour (duh!)

SAG Winners!

I was able to get 3/5 on my predictions. In my defense, Argo winning Best Cast was a surprise, and Supporting Actor was a mess this year.

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
BEST ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
BEST CAST: Argo

A funny thing happened on the way to the Oscars...

So, Argo just won the Producers Guild, and now I'm truly convinced it might win Best Picture at the Oscars. This is a most unusual occasion, and I'm pleased so that his is one of my big 'upsets' I was hoping for. I knew something would happen, but I am honestly still surprised the Producers liked it so much after such a shabby turnout with the nominations.

Tonight's SAG award can be another game-changer in all ways (except for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel). If  Lincoln wins, we (the prognosticators) know that the film is still the contender. If Silver Linings wins, we know Argo has some competition. If Argo wins, the race would practically end.

Also, Megan Ellison's demand for a recount might become a reality.

Look beyond the jump for Best Supporting Actor and Best Actress thoughts at SAG:

The Guilds, some things to note.

Every year, the most important precursors shake the race. The guilds, namely SAG and PGA. The Screen Actors Guild is on Sunday, and the Producers Guild announces tomorrow. The two films that are truly seeking Oscar gold are Silver Linings Playbooks and Lincoln, based on number of nominations. Argo is also one one more contender that is missing the all-precious directors nomination that is restraining a potential Oscar victory.

PGA Prediction:
Lincoln

SAG (Best Cast) Prediction:
Silver Linings Playbook

This weekend can mark a weekend of great change. In 2006, Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA, and became a hopeful to a true contender. It lost the Golden Globe and was mainly skunked out of a directing nomination. 2006's PGA also marked the beginning of the end of Dreamgirls.

2006 was one of the more messy years in recent memory, and I would like to see a major upset within this weekend. Like Zero Dark Thirty winning the PGA, but that's all just a dream.

The actors in SAG are in the Academy, the same won that gave four acting nominations to Silver Linings Playbook. This is the same Academy that gave 3 acting nominations to The Master, and 1 SAG nomination. Still, Silver Linings Playbook is an actors piece, and it is a piece that is quite popular.  Still, Silver Linings will probably win the big prize in this shindig. This probably means they will give the Best Actress prize to Jennifer Lawrence's very good work in Silver Linings Playbook instead of Jessica Chastain's powerhouse work in Zero Dark Thirty.

Complete SAG predictions below:

Best Actor- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress- Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor- No idea. Hoping for an upset, so Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (No Django nominees)
Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (duh!)

More after the jump discussing this weekend's significance.

Thoughts on the Golden Globes.

@Michael_Haneke  heres me havin a secret nap when @benaffleck was
doin his speech! Wot did I miss? Did he announce daredevil 2 yet lol

I DON'T CARE IF I'M TOO LATE FOR THIS. BETTER LATE THAN NEVER!

The Golden Globes were almost two Sundays ago, but I'm hoping I'm not two late for this.

Should I have been shocked by the Les Miserables victory? No. But I was. I did more reading after the show to learn that the Globes go more for good musicals than great comedies. Here is a recent track record.

2006: Dreamgirls > Little Miss Sunshine
2007: Sweeny Todd > Juno

This year was no different. I am happy I did reasonably well with my predictions, despite losing in both big categories. In all seriousness, Argo was a bit of a surprise. The Globes loves themselves some George Clooney (a producer of Argo). It does make sense for Lincoln to have won, since it did nab the most nominations in Globes history. Films dream of getting 7 nominations at the Oscars!

There were no big surprises in the acting categories, which is probably a bad sign to Naomi Watts' Oscar campaign. It is weird to see that Affleck won the Globe for Best Director, despite not getting an Oscar nomination.

Spielberg has been left in the cold. He has hardly won any directing prizes, yet his two prime competitors Bigelow (NYFCC, National Board of Review) and Affleck (Critics Choice, Golden Globes) did not get nominations.

THIS IS ONE MESSED UP YEAR.

Iowa Film Critics reward Lincoln!

Best Film: “Lincoln”

Other nominees: “Silver Linings Playbook”; “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Director: Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln”

Other nominees: Kathryn Bigelow, “Zero Dark Thirty”; Tom Hooper, “Les Miserables”

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis, “Lincoln”

Other nominees: Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook”; John Hawkes, “The Sessions”

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”

Other nominees: Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook”; Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour”

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln”

Other nominees: Alan Arkin, “Argo”; Robert DeNiro, “Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, “Les Miserables”

Other nominees: Amy Adams, “The Master”; Helen Hunt, “The Sessions”

Best Animated Film: “Brave”

Other nominees: “ParaNorman,” “Wreck-It Ralph”

Best Film That Has Yet to Open In Iowa: “Amour”

Golden Globe predictions!

The Golden Globes announce today, and I feel today is going to be a very good show (Poehler + Fey). I hope the winners are also surprising too, especially Breaking Bad for TV drama. That show better win tonight.

Anyways....

BEST MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA
All 5 nominees in this category have gone on to be Best Picture nominees. I'm going to have to say Lincoln will win this one because it is the current frontrunner. I won't be surprised by an Argo upset, and I would be delighted by a Zero Dark Thirty win.

BEST MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY/MUSICAL
The Golden Globes bring  welcome surprises. I feel that the force with Silver Linings Playbook is strong, but any musical in this category is usually a strong contender. In 2007, Sweeny Todd beat out Juno. Still, I'm going with Silver Linings.


BEST DIRECTOR
It's weird what Oscar did. They left out Ben Affleck for Argo, and yet, I think he is going to win Best Director. (Golden Globes hardly predict the Oscar winner. Scorsese won last year, then Fincher, Cameron, Boyle won the Oscar, but then before was Schnabel, Inarritu...)

National Society of Film Critics winners! AMOUR!

BEST ACTOR

*1. Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln – 59 (Dreamworks/Touchstone)
2. Denis Lavant – 49
2. Joaquin Phoenix – 49

BEST ACTRESS
*1. Emmanuelle Riva – Amour – 50 (Sony Classics)
2. Jennifer Lawrence – 42
3. Jessica Chastain– 32

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
*1. Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike (Warner Bros.), Bernie (Millennium Entertainment) – 27
2. Tommy Lee Jones – 22
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman – 19

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
*1. Amy Adams – The Master (The Weinstein Co.) – 34
2. Sally Field – 23
3. Anne Hathaway – 13

BEST PICTURE
*1. Amour (Sony Classics) – 28
2. The Master – 25
3. Zero Dark Thirty – 18

BEST DIRECTOR
*1. Michael Haneke (Amour) – 27
2. Kathryn Bigelow – 24
2. Paul Thomas Anderson – 24

LAFCA predictions!

Today the Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LAFCA) is announcing, and this could be a make or break for many movies. If Zero Dark Thirty wins, it would become the frontrunner. If The Master wins, it would basically be a Best Picture nominee lock. If Lincoln wins, not much would happen. If Amour wins, it would make itself a Best Picture nominee. If Les Mis wins, god save us.

Best Picture:
The Master (alt. Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Director:
P.T. Anderson, The Master (alt. Michael Haneke, Amour)

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (alt. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master)

Best Actress:
Emanuelle Riva, Amour (alt. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Supporting Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (alt. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master and Trouble with the Curve (alt. Sally Field, Lincoln)

Best Screenplay
Tony Kushner, Lincoln (alt. Michael Haneke, Amour)

Best Foreign Film
Amour (alt. Rust and Bone)

Best Animated Film
Frankenweenie (alt. Wreck-It Ralph)

Best Score
Johnny Greenwood, The Master (alt. Alexandre Desplat, Zero Dark Thirty)

CHECK BACK LATER TODAY FOR COMPLETE LIST OF WINNERS!

NYFCC winners! Zero Dark Thirty takes the big prize!

I'm afraid a bombed my predictions. BOMBED. The Master took home nothing, but Zero Dark Thirty won at least. Full winners below.

(Also, The Master will win LAFCA. Just a prediction.)

Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln,
Best Actress: Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea (WOW! Big (pleasant) surprise!)
Best S. Actor: Matthew McCougney, Magic Mike and Bernie (NYFCC loves multiple roles in a single year)
Best S. Actress: Sally Field, Lincoln (They liked her, they really really liked her)
Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best Cinematography: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Animated Film: Frankenweenie 
Best Foreign Film: Amour

New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) predictions!

NYFCC is announcing tomorrow, which is nothing less than exciting. I remember last year when I was so happy that Chassy and Pitt won acting prizes for The Tree of Life, and I thought that the film had a real shot at winning the top prize. Alas, it lost to The Artist. This year, I'm going all out for The Master. Members of NYFCC include AO Scott and Lisa Schwarzbaum, who both have given the film equivalents of 100%.


And since the film is my bet for Best Picture, it will probably win Best Director. Predictions below.

Best Picture- The Master (Alt. Zero Dark Thirty)
Best Director- PT Anderson, The Master (Alt. Steve Spielberg, Lincoln)
Best Actor- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln (Alt. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master)
Best Actress- Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (Alt. J. Law, Silver Linings Playbook)
Best Supporting Actor- Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (Alt. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln)
Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (Alt. Amy Adams, The Master)
Best Screenplay- The Master (Alt. Lincoln)
Best Cinematography- The Master (Alt. Life of Pi)
Best Foreign Film- Amour (Alt. The Intouchables)
Best First Film- Beasts of the Southern Wild (Alt. The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

Judging from my predictions, the big ones out of the gate tomorrow will be The Master, Zero Dark Thirty, and Lincoln, a race that I am perfectly content with.

Check back tomorrow for complete list of winners!

Lincoln (2012)- Spielberg cares more about Lincoln instead of the audience.

Lincoln, the latest from Steven Spielberg, is the retelling of the last year of Abraham Lincoln's life, and his struggle to pass the 13th amendment.

Best actor predictions.

BEST ACTOR:
1. Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables
This is another very bold prediction. No, I do not think Day-Lewis will win an unprecedented third Oscar for Best Actor, and I'm pretty sure the Academy loves Hugh. Nor do I think Les Miserables will go home empty handed.

2. Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
The weird thing is that I'm starting to like Bradley Cooper as an actor now. He is doing more challenging roles, later seen in The Place Beyond the Pines and David O'Rusell's previously titled American Bulls***. When Silver Linings takes the top prize, it's going to take more than that. Also, Bradley's got Harvey with him.

3. Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
For the greatest actor of our generation, the academy might feel inclined to give some love to Danny. They probably won't give him a third Oscar, no man has ever won three Oscars for Best Actor in the first place. He will definitely be nominated, though.

4. Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
This is a very obvious nomination. After winning Best Actor in Venice, and only receiving love for this challenging role, he will be nominated. For those who don't like the film, however, they won't give him the boost for the win.

5. Anthony Hopkins for Hitchcock
Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor in 1991 for his terrifying work in The Silence of the Lambs. He is almost synonymous with horror (and Merchant-Ivory,), and if he does even OK as the Master of Suspense, he will be nominated.

I hate to leave Ben Affleck off for Argo (being in Daredevil and Gigli kills, man,), but something inside me tells me he has a better shot than Spielberg for Argo. Something also tells me that Lincoln  might be ignored, a la Amistad.

Check back tomorrow for Best Supporting Actress predictions. While your at it, admire Joaquin Phoenix's performance by watching a trailer for The Master.

First Poster for 'Lincoln'

Looking majestic. Like the focus on Abe.

First look of Daniel Day-Lewis as Lincoln in 'Lincoln'.