|I bet you're tired of seeing this picture. So am I.|
-Ang Lee can't really win Best Director again for Life of Pi. He already won for Brokeback Mountain in 2005, and is Asian. Yeah, it sounds racist, but its true. Also, the accessability for Pi is still a question.
-Kathryn Bigelow can't really win for Zero Dark Thirty because she recently won for The Hurt Locker. Also, she's a woman. Sounds sexist, but its true.
-Spielberg can't really win for Lincoln because he already won for List and Private Ryan, two WWII masterpieces. The only way Spielberg can pull it off is with something equal to the previously listed.
-Benh Zeitlen for Beasts of the Southern Wild. Not much a chance, since the film is so polarizing.
-PT Anderson's The Master. I hate to say it, but it just can't win the big prize, or the director prize. Early critic screenings call it a masterpiece, but it is not to the Academy's taste. Think of it like Mulholland Dr., a film suited for critics, not stars.
-Wes Anderson's Moonrise Kingdom. Too quirky, too simple. It might be the Juno of this year.
-Michael Haneke's Amour. It's in a foreign language, which kills its accessibility.
-Tom Hooper Les Mis. Some voters are still sour over the fact that the Oscar belonged to David Fincher (IT DID), and his also recently won.
All in all, if To the Wonder is accessible enough (which some people say it is,), and Malick's fanbase within the academy is only getting bigger, To the Wonder has nowhere to go but up.