PGA and WGA announce, recognize Dallas Buyers Club, skunk

I mean, Dallas Buyers Club is a pretty solid flick, but over Inside Llewyn Davis? How about no.

American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

...and the WGA nominees.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Dallas Buyers Club

Her

Nebraska

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

August: Osage County

Before Midnight

Captain Phillips

Lone Survivor

The Wolf of Wall Street

SAG Award nominations!

SAG has always been an organization that has crushed dreams, at least for me. The Master, last year, was snubbed for Amy Adams and Joaquin Phoenix. However, they've always been recognized as a pivotal organization, one that has announcements so powerful, that any film nominated in the Best Film Ensemble is an instant contender. This go-around though, three of the nominees (Dallas Buyers Club, The Butler, August: Osage County) have been below the radar... below. Major snubs include the heat-gaining Her, and Scorsese's latest The Wolf of Wall Street.

BEST FILM ENSEMBLE
"12 Years a Slave"
"American Hustle"
"August: Osage County"
"The Butler"
"Dallas Buyers Club"

BEST ACTOR
Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave"
Tom Hanks, "Captain Phillips"
Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"
Forest Whitaker, "The Butler"

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock, "Gravity"
Judi Dench, "Philomena"
Meryl Streep, "August: Osage County"
Emma Thompson, "Saving Mr. Banks"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"
Daniel Bruhl, "Rush"
Michael Fassbender, "12 Years a Slave"
James Gandolfini, "Enough Said"
Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle"
Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years a Slave"
Julia Roberts, "August: Osage County"
June Squibb, "Nebraska"
Oprah Winfrey, "The Butler"

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
"All is Lost"
"Fast & Furious 6"
"Lone Survivor"
"Rush"
"The Wolverine"

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture (11/16/13)

The last time I did a Best Picture prediction post was in May, when the Cannes Film Festival ended and Foxcatcher was still planned to come out this year. Oh the memories.

1. 12 Years a Slave
A prime release date. High acclaim. Based off a true story/ Great screenplay. Strong performances. Right now this looks like the film to beat, and one that maybe no one will come March. Did I mention that this film was based off a
true story?

2. Gravity
In any other year, this film would be a lock for a win. However, with 12 Years a Slave, this film is going to play second fiddle. Still, this film should be patting itself on the back for Bullock's incredible one-woman performance and the smashing box office success this film was.

3. American Hustle
Directed by maybe the most successful director of this decade, David O. Russell. A stellar cast working the reigns and the six-minute p
review out of the AFI Fest is so far saying good things. December cannot come any sooner.

4. Captain Phillips
Though I did not like this film as much as many other people did, you simply can't count this one out of the race. The performances by Tom Hanks and Barkhad Abdi are worthy of acclaim, and this film does have what it takes to amass the #1 votes.

5. Saving Mr. Banks
Another Tom Hanks feature, but with 1990's Oscar champ Emma Thompson leading. This is the sweet stuff that will appeal to a certain Oscar crowd. Word out of London and AFI says that this film isn't shabby too.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Is this Shutter Island or Hugo? Casino or GoodFellas? Either way, this film is hotly anticipated, and one cannot simply count out Scorsese.

7. Inside Llewyn Davis
A hit out of Cannes, and if A Serious Man managed a nom, shouldn't this one be a lock? Like Scorsese, you simply cannot count out the Coens.

8. Her
The Academy has recognized Spike Jonze's Adaptation and Being John Malkovich, and word from NYFF says that this one is trump. It it just too crowded? Expect a screenplay nomination at least.

9. Nebraska
This is a strong film in a strong year, but again, is it just too crowded? The chances for Dern earning an acting nomination seem to be increasingly likely, so this could go two ways: Many nominations for the film, or just the acting and screenplay nomination.

Doesn't matter, with films like these, this is maybe the strongest year in film since 2007 or maybe even 1999. Wow.

Don't count out these films though:

Blue is the Warmest Color
Expect critics groups to go gaga for Blue. With a 3
hour runtime and publicity between feuding actors and director Abdellatif Kechiche, this film just might get the attention necessary to warrant viewers and #1 votes. Also since this film is ineligible for the Foreign prize, there's a slim chance that the Academy might want to find a way to reward this film. Also a dark horse contender in this film is lead actress Adele Exarchopolous, a fresh face that's already been doing some campaigning on her part.

Blue Jasmine
Cate Blanchett is still the one to top for the Best Actress category, and this is also Allen's best film since Crimes and Misdemeanors. This is bubbling under the Best Picture pack, but Sony Pictures Classics is a mighty mouse in a lion's game: they consistently nab foreign language Oscars and last year got five nominations for Amour.

The Butler and August: Osage County
Both of these films have stellar casts, despite mixed reception (I can testify about The Butler). These two ar films that will easily appeal to the acting branch.

2014 Oscar Predictions: The Screenplays

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. Spike Jonze, Her
This is a total outside guess, but after seeing a list of potential nominees, I think that this just fits the bill for a true winner. Spike Jonze has yet to win an Oscar, despite being nominated before. Also, this film is going to have originality and the story's basic idea is nothing less of relevant, especially with the advent of Siri technology.

2. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

Woody is on a hot streak right now. Blue Jasmine is his best film in years, and the film certainly deserves recognition. It will, in this category. The film handled the dramatic and comedic aspects in a way no other director could. Great movie.

3. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
If their most off-kilter films earn nominations (A Serious Man), that must mean that a more mainstream Coen picture with even better reception deserves a nomination.

4. Eric Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
Another man on a hot streak, David O. Russell will probably nab a nomination for this political thriller. Looks good.

5. Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks 
I think between this and Gravity, the wittier dialogue in this will trump the technical lingo and nervous screaming of Gravity. If there's any consolation, Gravity most definitely will trump Saving Mr. Banks in the visual categories.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
Winter is already well-known across Hollwood with his work on the TV show Boardwalk Empire. This latest Scorsese picture looks really exciting, awesome, and funny. I really can't wait.

2. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Django Unchained is really this film's crux. This movie, discussing slavery, will get more mainstream recognition because of Django. However, I don't think the Academy will want to recognize two slavery films in two years, especially in such familiar categories. At least a film by Steve McQueen will get Academy recognition in the first place.

3. E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
I think this is one of the strongest Best Picture contenders we've got this year, so I feel it is necessary to predict the film in many prime categories, including screenplay.

4. Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Juile Delpy, Before Midnight
This is the year's best film, without a doubt. The previous film in the series, Before Sunset, managed a nomination in this category nine years ago. I certainly hope that this film in the Before series manages another nom.

5. Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
A preview screening of the film way back in March/April revealed high praise, despite the soapy Weinstein trailers. This is the adaptation of a prestige play, with a prestige cast working on it too. This certainly will get recognized one way or another.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
The buzz has been strong on this since... forever. It's an Oprah performance, that's enough to turn the heads of the Academy.

2. Meryl Streep, August, Osage County
She won so recently, and there's Oprah to reward too. Then again, this is a very meaty part that many people think is actually a leading role, so... I won't be surprised if something happens.

3. Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
Foxcatcher matches the perfect Oscar meld for me: A film with a lot less pre-release buzz, surging into play by a director that has yet to win, but is pretty well-regarded. Yeah, that sounds like Foxcatcher. This is a real outside shot, but if Sony Pictures Classics plays their cards right, they might get something big with Foxcatcher, and drag Vanessa Redgrave along with them.

4. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Though I liked Fruivale Station (not nearly as much as others), I found Octavia Spencer's work to be superb. Oscar worthy, especially since it is better than her work on The Help. She's got Harvey Weinstein helping her too, so I think a nomination is good. A win? Nah, Harvey has Oprah to support too.

5. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor/Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Both sights to be seen. Right now I'm split, since both films are not making festival appearances, I'm judging off what people think of the trailers. Diaz seems to have a meatier part, but Lawrence seems to be going on a hot streak of sorts, so... we'll see.

Check back soon for screenplay predictions!

2014 Oscars: Best Actress predictions (7/10/13)

Time for another big category, and this year, this category is up in the air (again). However, predicting will not hurt at all.

1. Naomi Watts, Diana
The long overdue Naomi Watts will finally win... hopefully. A lot of this depends on the film' quality. Right now I'm expecting a film rating of 65%-70% on RottenTomatoes.

2. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Every year Meryl Streep makes a movie, she must be noted as a potential nominee. Her performance has actually been seen by a small audience, and the reception so far is good. Let's see how much cynicism the Academy can handle.

3. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Every time Kate Winslet make a movie, she also must be recognized as a potential contender. This time, she is directed by Jason Reitman, a man who can usually make Oscar-worthy performances. The again, Young Adult was unfairly snubbed out of Best Actress and Supporting Actor.

4. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Maybe I am bias. But I think that if there was any contender that has not been a nominee in this category, it ought to be Julie Delpy, with a performance displaying high range and in a film that will most likely receive love from the older Academy members/hipster ones.

5. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
Last year Nicole Kidman almost became a surprise nominee for the little-seen The Paperboy. However, her chances at a nomination look significantly higher, as she is playing former leading lady Grace Kelly, and is also backed by the Weinstein Company. However, can she pull off Grace Kelly (I'm not sure that she can, personally).

Check back soon for more nomination predictions!

Post-Cannes Best Picture predictions!

Blue is the Warmest Color won the big prize at Cannes, but the real winner was the Coen's Inside Llewyn Davis, a film that simply captivated the fest and is now an Oscar frontrunner (literally, with lead Oscar Isaac). However, I still think our winner has yet to be seen.

1. Foxcatcher
The last time a best picture winner came out in December was Million Dollar Baby, and even then the film was a somewhat of an underdog. I think Foxcatcher has what it takes to win due to a strong cast (Steve Carell, Channing Tatum, Mark Ruffalo, Vanessa Redgrave), a strong director (two-time BP nominee Bennett Miller) and an undecided release date that will most likely free the film of any controversy before the big show.

2. American Hustle
Usually directors without a win seem to contend better than directors that have wins under their belt. David O'Russell seems like a director prime for a win (Silver Linings Playbook and The Fighter were both Academy hits). A top-notch cast also does not hurt (Amy Adams, Christian Bale, Jennifer Lawrence, Jeremy Renner, and Bradley Cooper). Oh yeah, did I mention that both this and Foxcatcher are based off true stories? OSCAR BAIT!

3. The Wolf of Wall Street
The third true story in a row, and the third in a row with a top notch cast (Leo Dicaprio, Matthew McConaughey, Jean Dudjardin, Jonah Hill, Kyle Chandler) and Martin Scorsese behind the director's chair.

4. The Monuments Men
Directed by George Clooney. Which is the film's achille heal. Clooney only has one Best Picture nomination, and despite Ides of March being his best film, he only got a Screenplay nomination. Still, Clooney is on a hot streak with producing Argo. This film is still a contender!

5. Inside Llewyn Davis
This is a film that has been screened already at Cannes, to extreme critical acclaim. I don't know anyone that doesn't like it.

6. Before Midnight
With up to 10 slots now, I think finally a 'Before' film will get a nomination. Finally!

7. Captain Phillips
Tom Hanks in a true story by Oscar-nominee Paul Greengrass. 'Nuff said.

8. August: Osage County
The Weinstein Company is bound to get a nomination, and this one is bound to be it. Guaranteed SAG nomination.

August: Osage County trailer and poster!

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Trying to predict next year's Best Picture winner and nominees is about as easy as throwing a dart on the center of a dartboard... from 10 yards away. Moral of the story is, that it is pointless and near-impossible.

1. The Monuments Men
George Clooney has yet to win his directing Oscar, and this is a very attractive project for the Academy to vote for. It is in WWII, a true story, and has an all-star cast. If this wins director for Clooney, it might as well  win picture.

2. Untitled David O. Russell Abscam Project
That is a mouthful! At least this is not the final project title. This is also a true political thriller, like Monuments Men and recent victor Argo. David O. Russell has yet to win his Oscar, so chances are this could be his prize winning film if it turns out well. This also has an all-star cast, boasting the likes of Christian Bale, Jen Lawrence, and Bradley Cooper (just to name a few).

3. The Wolf of Wall Street
Another film with an unrewarded component. This time, it is actor Leonardo DiCaprio, in a part he has described as 'his best one yet'. Scorsese is behind the camera, and his last film Hugo did very well at the Oscars. Let this be an indicator of name recognition.

4. Foxcatcher
Bennet Miller is king when it comes to biopics. Both Capote and Moneyball were nominees in their respective years. This one might have winning performance with Mark Ruffalo as a late wrestler killed by a schizophrenic (Steve Carell).

5. The Counselor
Brad Pitt, the popular actor. Cormac McCarthy, the popular writer. Ridley Scott, the popular director. 20th Century Fox, the popular studio. Javier Bardem, ANOTHER popular actor! Need I say more?

The remaining 5 films I think have a shot at a nom are listed below. (in order!)
6. Captain Phillips
7. August: Osage County
8. Nebraska
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Fruitvale

Maybe none of these will be nominees. Maybe all of them will be. We'll find out in 10 months...