2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Actress Nomination Predictions!

Best Actress this year is really pointless to predict, since Cate Blanchett is going to win.

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Off the top of my head, the only big prize that Cate Blanchett hasn't bagged is the National Board of Review, which was given to Emma Thompson. Cate Blanchett though- total class act, just sweeping the the circuits with her brilliant work.

2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
It's amazing that Sandra Bullock can go from fierce motherly performances such as The Blind Side to hilarious rom-coms (The Proposal), to this. A tour-de-force, an emotional triumph, a plateau of humanity in an out-of-this-world waltz. If The Blind Side never happened, Bullock would be a lot stronger of a contender, but people just don't like the sound of "Sandra Bullock, two-time Oscar winner", do they?

3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
It's a total crotchety performance, but its the best thing about the movie. Sure its soapier than a Dove bar, but its better than what it should be by Thompson's layered performance. The Academy is sure to love it too.

4. Judi Dench, Philomena
Based off a true story, with Harvey Weinstein by her side. Yep, it's safe for a nom, I think.

5. Amy Adams, American Hustle
Hot off the Golden Globes win, Amy Adams I think can squeak out over the Meryl Streep. Sure, what Meryl does is chew scenery like bubble gum in August: Osage County, but Amy Adams is in the Best Picture contender. Also, her sexy sideboob never hurt anyone either.

Still, don't be surprised if Meryl gets a nomination because she's working with Harvey Weinstein too. If you want to be especially risky, put chips down on Adele Exarchopolous for Blue is the Warmest Color. I can only pray for a nomination for Brie Larson (Short Term 12), but that's wishful thinking.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Picture Nomination Predictions!

So I've been slacking, no big deal. Final predictions, here goes nothing!

1. American Hustle
Winner of three Golden Globes, including Amy Adams. David O. Russell is on a hot streak too, so here's what's up: this movie is packing the heat. If we had a winner as of now, it would be American Hustle.

2. 12 Years a Slave
Enough said. No, not the Nicole Holofecener one. This film, despite winning only one Globe, took the Best Drama one. Winner of the TIFF People's Choice prize. Yea, it's a lock for a nom.

3. Gravity
Every year has one film that's a visual amazement. And those films were Avatar, Inception (not 3D, but still), Hugo, and Life of Pi. The list of films listed above were major Oscar contenders in their years, and Gravity might be the strongest one of recent memory. It's certainly the best one. And Cuaron's Globe win doesn't hurt at all.

4. Nebraska
Everyone's eating up this small town flick by the deadpan quirk man Alexander Payne. It's good, yea, but most people seem to like the movie more than me. I can see why.

5. Her
It's the best film since Martin Scorsese's GoodFellas. I know that the movie has an audience, and I'm part of it. It's so good. I don't have to hope for votes, though, it's bound to get nominated. It's so worthy.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Amid the controversy is a passionate fanbase. It's a great movie, no doubt. Masterpiece level really. And since voters can't mark films they hate, the film's fanbase is bound to get it nominated.

7. Captain Phillips
Probably the weakest out of all nominees. I really can't see it getting number one votes, but it's hit all the guilds, and that's what counts. Whatever, I'll count it as a nominee.

8. Saving Mr. Banks
Another Tom Hanks picture, supported only by Emma Thompson's lead performance. One month ago we were looking at the possible winner, now we're just seeing a movie headed for two noms.

9. Dallas Buyers Club
The underdog of the Oscar season. It's been on the PGA, the WGA, the SAG... and McConaughey plus Leto really make the film a contenda. Actors will vote this one high.

10. Inside Llewyn Davis
Good god I wished this one was a lock. It's the best film by the Coen brothers. Really. Despite falling off the WGA and PGA list, the film did win the National Society of Film Critics and AFI, so it's got a fanbase. The Academy has a thing for the directing duo, since True Grit surprised with 10 noms and A Serious Man was a total surprise in 2009.

Look out for Blue Jasmine, Fruitvale Station and Philomena. This year is so packed.

AFI Top 10 Films of 2013!

I've always had a soft spot for the AFI Top 10, because it was a list that recognized Terrence Malick's epic The Tree of Life. This soft spot still continues, because the the top 10 released today is fantastic. (WOOOOO NO BUTLER)

AFI MOVIES OF THE YEAR
12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
FRUITVALE STATION
GRAVITY
HER
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
NEBRASKA
SAVING MR. BANKS
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Director (11/20/13)

1. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Usually, the year's best picture and best director coincide. Last year, a unique exception, will probably not be repeated. When there is a film getting an overwhelming amount of praise like 12 Years, that could only mean that the film will win and sweep it's visionary director along with it. It also happens that many of the most recent best picture winners are from the the director's third film (Argo, The Artist, The King's Speech).

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
If there was any competition to McQueen, it would most definitely by Alfonso Cuaron. Having directed Gravity with visual excellence and revolutionizing visual effects with his cameraman Emmanuel Lubezki, there is no way that Gravity could be ignored.

3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
O. Russell might be one of the best directors of this decade, with both The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook. Judging by the commercials and clips, the movie looks like great fun, and at the least, fun. Though the film has yet to be seen, there's no harm in counting him in.

4. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Because it's Martin Scorsese. Predictions can change, but right now this picture looks strong and counting him out would be wrong (excuse the rhyme).

5. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
I'm split between this directing duo and Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips, but I think the Coens are at an advantage. Those that have seen the film and love it really do love it. It's hard not to count out the Coens, because they have a fanbase within the Academy. I mean, between True Grit and Inception, who should've been nominated?

Keep an eye out for:
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
The guys that liked Zero Dark Thirty probably enjoyed this one too. It also stars Tom Hanks and is based off a true story, so that should please the Academy too.

Asgahar Farhadi, The Past
Don't underestimate the 25-man team at Sony Pictures Classics. They know how to get the nominations, as seen by what they've done with Amour. Even A Separation managed a screenplay nomination. This is a tight year, but anything unexpected can happen.

John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
This is a real crowdpleaser, and nothing can get the Academy more worked up than a crowdpleaser besides a true story.... it just happens that this film is both! What it doesn't have is name recognition. When you're a director going up against Scorsese and the Coens, you're climbing an uphill slope.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture (11/16/13)

The last time I did a Best Picture prediction post was in May, when the Cannes Film Festival ended and Foxcatcher was still planned to come out this year. Oh the memories.

1. 12 Years a Slave
A prime release date. High acclaim. Based off a true story/ Great screenplay. Strong performances. Right now this looks like the film to beat, and one that maybe no one will come March. Did I mention that this film was based off a
true story?

2. Gravity
In any other year, this film would be a lock for a win. However, with 12 Years a Slave, this film is going to play second fiddle. Still, this film should be patting itself on the back for Bullock's incredible one-woman performance and the smashing box office success this film was.

3. American Hustle
Directed by maybe the most successful director of this decade, David O. Russell. A stellar cast working the reigns and the six-minute p
review out of the AFI Fest is so far saying good things. December cannot come any sooner.

4. Captain Phillips
Though I did not like this film as much as many other people did, you simply can't count this one out of the race. The performances by Tom Hanks and Barkhad Abdi are worthy of acclaim, and this film does have what it takes to amass the #1 votes.

5. Saving Mr. Banks
Another Tom Hanks feature, but with 1990's Oscar champ Emma Thompson leading. This is the sweet stuff that will appeal to a certain Oscar crowd. Word out of London and AFI says that this film isn't shabby too.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Is this Shutter Island or Hugo? Casino or GoodFellas? Either way, this film is hotly anticipated, and one cannot simply count out Scorsese.

7. Inside Llewyn Davis
A hit out of Cannes, and if A Serious Man managed a nom, shouldn't this one be a lock? Like Scorsese, you simply cannot count out the Coens.

8. Her
The Academy has recognized Spike Jonze's Adaptation and Being John Malkovich, and word from NYFF says that this one is trump. It it just too crowded? Expect a screenplay nomination at least.

9. Nebraska
This is a strong film in a strong year, but again, is it just too crowded? The chances for Dern earning an acting nomination seem to be increasingly likely, so this could go two ways: Many nominations for the film, or just the acting and screenplay nomination.

Doesn't matter, with films like these, this is maybe the strongest year in film since 2007 or maybe even 1999. Wow.

Don't count out these films though:

Blue is the Warmest Color
Expect critics groups to go gaga for Blue. With a 3
hour runtime and publicity between feuding actors and director Abdellatif Kechiche, this film just might get the attention necessary to warrant viewers and #1 votes. Also since this film is ineligible for the Foreign prize, there's a slim chance that the Academy might want to find a way to reward this film. Also a dark horse contender in this film is lead actress Adele Exarchopolous, a fresh face that's already been doing some campaigning on her part.

Blue Jasmine
Cate Blanchett is still the one to top for the Best Actress category, and this is also Allen's best film since Crimes and Misdemeanors. This is bubbling under the Best Picture pack, but Sony Pictures Classics is a mighty mouse in a lion's game: they consistently nab foreign language Oscars and last year got five nominations for Amour.

The Butler and August: Osage County
Both of these films have stellar casts, despite mixed reception (I can testify about The Butler). These two ar films that will easily appeal to the acting branch.

2014 Oscar Predictions: The Screenplays

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
1. Spike Jonze, Her
This is a total outside guess, but after seeing a list of potential nominees, I think that this just fits the bill for a true winner. Spike Jonze has yet to win an Oscar, despite being nominated before. Also, this film is going to have originality and the story's basic idea is nothing less of relevant, especially with the advent of Siri technology.

2. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

Woody is on a hot streak right now. Blue Jasmine is his best film in years, and the film certainly deserves recognition. It will, in this category. The film handled the dramatic and comedic aspects in a way no other director could. Great movie.

3. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
If their most off-kilter films earn nominations (A Serious Man), that must mean that a more mainstream Coen picture with even better reception deserves a nomination.

4. Eric Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
Another man on a hot streak, David O. Russell will probably nab a nomination for this political thriller. Looks good.

5. Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks 
I think between this and Gravity, the wittier dialogue in this will trump the technical lingo and nervous screaming of Gravity. If there's any consolation, Gravity most definitely will trump Saving Mr. Banks in the visual categories.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
Winter is already well-known across Hollwood with his work on the TV show Boardwalk Empire. This latest Scorsese picture looks really exciting, awesome, and funny. I really can't wait.

2. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Django Unchained is really this film's crux. This movie, discussing slavery, will get more mainstream recognition because of Django. However, I don't think the Academy will want to recognize two slavery films in two years, especially in such familiar categories. At least a film by Steve McQueen will get Academy recognition in the first place.

3. E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
I think this is one of the strongest Best Picture contenders we've got this year, so I feel it is necessary to predict the film in many prime categories, including screenplay.

4. Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Juile Delpy, Before Midnight
This is the year's best film, without a doubt. The previous film in the series, Before Sunset, managed a nomination in this category nine years ago. I certainly hope that this film in the Before series manages another nom.

5. Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
A preview screening of the film way back in March/April revealed high praise, despite the soapy Weinstein trailers. This is the adaptation of a prestige play, with a prestige cast working on it too. This certainly will get recognized one way or another.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

The Oscar frenzy is dawning upon us film fans, starting next week when Cuaron's Gravity premiers in Venice. Before then, I plan to finish what I started last month: the first round of Oscar nominee predictions!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
After losing a bit of buzz due to the lack of festival presence, Foxcatcher is bounding back with potential Oscar dominance with a release date (December 20th) AND a first image. Mark Ruffalo looks like a perfect winning contender due to three things:

-His character dies in a true story (The Academy might recognize that)
-He has been nominated before, but has yet to win (The Academy has been giving out a lot of first-time prizes lately)
-Mark is at a perfect spot in his career, with his role as the Hulk and many new movies coming out.

2. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Since Tom Hanks has two Oscar contending films (this and Captain Phillips), he is going to get his name thrown around a lot on the ballots. Especially since I think this role looks like a leading role, he has one more distinct advantage. He's also playing Walt Disney, if that helps (it definitely doesn't hurt).

3. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
Despite this film not showing on the festival circuit, this film looks like a mix of pulpy and sleek crime fun. Javier Bardem won the last time he worked with Cormac McCarthy material (the brilliant No Country for Old Men), so I think he has a good shot at a nomination with a showy role (that hair!) that also touches on mass drug production like the currently popular TV show Breaking Bad.

4. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Three films with Steve McQueen (not The Great Escape Steve) should result in some proper recognition. The last time a white character in a supporting role with a fantastic beard won an Oscar was last year, so this sort of role is not a taboo (unlike genitalia flaunting in Shame)

5. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Fans in the Academy of Thirty Seconds to Mars may vote for Leto... just because. Some will due to the extreme weight loss he went through with Matt McC(I'm not even going to try). Focus Features hasn't had a breadwinner in a while, so let's see if Dallas Buyers Club is as good as it looks.

Check back tomorrow for Best Supporting Actress predictions!