2014 Oscar Predictions. Final.

So it ends here. One of the most convoluted and hopelessly aimless years in Oscar history has ended. Here's my predictions for what's gonna take home gold on Sunday.

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

BEST ACTOR

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Spike Jonze, Her

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Great Beauty

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Frozen

BEST DOCUMENTARY

20 Feet from Stardom

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Get a Horse!

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

The Voorman Problem (idk)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Lady in Number 6 (idk)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Gravity

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Let it Go (Frozen)

BEST FILM EDITING
Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING

Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Great Gatsby

BEST MAKEUP

Dallas Buyers Club

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Great Gatsby

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING / MIXING

Gravity

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity

SAG Winner predictions!

The SAG Awards are tonight, and their unusually strong support for August: Osage County and The Butler clearly didn't translate to the Academy Awards.

BEST ENSEMBLE: American Hustle. Because in October, people like me were hailing 12 Years a Slave as the instant winner. I think that the simmering cast here is going to provide a bit of an unsurprising upset.

BEST ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club. He won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice, so he's unstoppable right now. In fact, the SAG seems to factor men's looks into voting, because in 2003 Johnny Depp won for Pirates of the Caribbean. Sorry Chiwetel.

BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. Because.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. Because.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle. She's the hot thing in Hollywood, and she'll be swept up with the Best Ensemble prize. Or vice-versa.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actor Nomination Predictions!

Jared Leto has a cat and its in the bag.

1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Again, Jared Leto has a cat and its in the bag. He's won so many precursors and critics groups prizes.

2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Seriously powerful stuff. Fassbender is finally getting his first Oscar nom, and it couldn't be a better film to have a nominate him for. He treats performance brutality with incredible weight.

3. James Gandolfini, Enough Said
This is the one notable film of the year that I have yet to see, along with Philomena. I've always liked Gandolfini, and there's no better way to celebrate his life than with an Oscar nomination.

4. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
I honestly can't tell you what's so great about Abdi's performance. Sure, he hold his own against THE Tom Hanks, but what separates Abdi from his co-stars? You tell me. Others like him enough to give him Golden Globe and SAG nominations though.

5. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
When it came down to Daniel Bruhl and Cooper, I had to pick Cooper. He's a great actor, and his role is more alive than what Bruhl does with Niki Lauda in Rush. Rush also has a major hurdle with Abdi too, and I've seen Abdi on the campaign trail a whole lot more than Bruhl. Maybe another year.

But if you do see a wildcard / dark horse contender, it will probably by Daniel Bruhl. And imagine, it was only a month ago when Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks) appeared to be a lock!

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Actor Nomination Predictions!

This is the year's most packed category. Maybe this could be like the Emmys, where there were seven Best Actress nominees.

1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Geez this guy is great. He's great in the movie, he has Mud on his resume, ran away with the first ten minutes of The Wolf of Wall Street, and also is incredible in the first episode of True Detective. God he's on a hot streak. And the best way to reward Matthew McConaughey is with an Oscar. Nomination, at least.

2. Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave
What a triumphant performance. Really. This movie is great, and Ejiofer owns it.

3. Bruce Dern, Nebraska 
Yo. The movie's good, and Dern was probably the best part of it. It's funny on paper, and right below it is withering humanity and regret. And Dern, a well-liked Academy member, might get his nomination almost like a lifetime achievement sort of deal.

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Quality film, and DiCaprio being an actor that tends to overact, totally owns this role that is so unhinged and so damn crazy. Also winning the Golden Globe doesn't hurt.

5. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
He's Tom Hanks. Two-time Oscar winner in two years. Also the movie's based off a true story, that doesn't hurt.

Also don't forget about Robert Redford (All is Lost) and Christian Bale (American Hustle), two performances that would easily slide in if it was less crowded.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Picture Nomination Predictions!

So I've been slacking, no big deal. Final predictions, here goes nothing!

1. American Hustle
Winner of three Golden Globes, including Amy Adams. David O. Russell is on a hot streak too, so here's what's up: this movie is packing the heat. If we had a winner as of now, it would be American Hustle.

2. 12 Years a Slave
Enough said. No, not the Nicole Holofecener one. This film, despite winning only one Globe, took the Best Drama one. Winner of the TIFF People's Choice prize. Yea, it's a lock for a nom.

3. Gravity
Every year has one film that's a visual amazement. And those films were Avatar, Inception (not 3D, but still), Hugo, and Life of Pi. The list of films listed above were major Oscar contenders in their years, and Gravity might be the strongest one of recent memory. It's certainly the best one. And Cuaron's Globe win doesn't hurt at all.

4. Nebraska
Everyone's eating up this small town flick by the deadpan quirk man Alexander Payne. It's good, yea, but most people seem to like the movie more than me. I can see why.

5. Her
It's the best film since Martin Scorsese's GoodFellas. I know that the movie has an audience, and I'm part of it. It's so good. I don't have to hope for votes, though, it's bound to get nominated. It's so worthy.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Amid the controversy is a passionate fanbase. It's a great movie, no doubt. Masterpiece level really. And since voters can't mark films they hate, the film's fanbase is bound to get it nominated.

7. Captain Phillips
Probably the weakest out of all nominees. I really can't see it getting number one votes, but it's hit all the guilds, and that's what counts. Whatever, I'll count it as a nominee.

8. Saving Mr. Banks
Another Tom Hanks picture, supported only by Emma Thompson's lead performance. One month ago we were looking at the possible winner, now we're just seeing a movie headed for two noms.

9. Dallas Buyers Club
The underdog of the Oscar season. It's been on the PGA, the WGA, the SAG... and McConaughey plus Leto really make the film a contenda. Actors will vote this one high.

10. Inside Llewyn Davis
Good god I wished this one was a lock. It's the best film by the Coen brothers. Really. Despite falling off the WGA and PGA list, the film did win the National Society of Film Critics and AFI, so it's got a fanbase. The Academy has a thing for the directing duo, since True Grit surprised with 10 noms and A Serious Man was a total surprise in 2009.

Look out for Blue Jasmine, Fruitvale Station and Philomena. This year is so packed.

PGA and WGA announce, recognize Dallas Buyers Club, skunk

I mean, Dallas Buyers Club is a pretty solid flick, but over Inside Llewyn Davis? How about no.

American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

...and the WGA nominees.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle

Blue Jasmine

Dallas Buyers Club

Her

Nebraska

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

August: Osage County

Before Midnight

Captain Phillips

Lone Survivor

The Wolf of Wall Street

SAG Award nominations!

SAG has always been an organization that has crushed dreams, at least for me. The Master, last year, was snubbed for Amy Adams and Joaquin Phoenix. However, they've always been recognized as a pivotal organization, one that has announcements so powerful, that any film nominated in the Best Film Ensemble is an instant contender. This go-around though, three of the nominees (Dallas Buyers Club, The Butler, August: Osage County) have been below the radar... below. Major snubs include the heat-gaining Her, and Scorsese's latest The Wolf of Wall Street.

BEST FILM ENSEMBLE
"12 Years a Slave"
"American Hustle"
"August: Osage County"
"The Butler"
"Dallas Buyers Club"

BEST ACTOR
Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave"
Tom Hanks, "Captain Phillips"
Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"
Forest Whitaker, "The Butler"

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock, "Gravity"
Judi Dench, "Philomena"
Meryl Streep, "August: Osage County"
Emma Thompson, "Saving Mr. Banks"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"
Daniel Bruhl, "Rush"
Michael Fassbender, "12 Years a Slave"
James Gandolfini, "Enough Said"
Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle"
Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years a Slave"
Julia Roberts, "August: Osage County"
June Squibb, "Nebraska"
Oprah Winfrey, "The Butler"

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
"All is Lost"
"Fast & Furious 6"
"Lone Survivor"
"Rush"
"The Wolverine"

NYFCC winner predictions!

The NYFCC (New York Film Critics Circle) and the National Board of Review will be announcing their award winning films on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. I've always said Oscar season started in Cannes, and I've said it started at Venice and TIFF, but honestly, this Tuesday and Wednesday are the honest start of the Oscar race. Let's start with the NYFCC.

When it comes down to Best Picture, NYFCC chooses films that happen to have what I'm calling 'the metascore correlation': The idea that films with a metascore of 90 or above on Metacritic have the highest likelihood of winning. Last year, Zero Dark Thirty won with a metascore of 95, The Social Network won with a 95, and The Hurt Locker won with a 94. 2011's winner, The Artist, won having a score of 87, the closest movie of the year to be near 90 besides A Separation.

This year, we have to strong contenders that are above 90: Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with 96 and 97 respectively. 12 Years a Slave is at an advantage for having more scores of 100 (and having the higher score overall), so I predict it will win Best Picture come Tuesday.

Best Director and Picture correlate usually, so I'll say Steve McQueen will win the director prize. NYFCC likes to clump film performances together for acting prizes, like last year McConaughey's supporting actor win for Magic Mike and Bernie. I predict McConaughey to win again for Dallas Buyers Club, and his work in Mud. Best Actress will probably go to Cate Blanchett, or maybe even Adele Exarchopolous for Blue is the Warmest Color. Exarchopolous will probably win the LAFCA and NSFC prizes, so for now I'll say, put your money on Blanchett in Blue Jasmine. (I don't think anyone bets money over this, though).

Supporting Actor will go to Michael Fassbender for his tremendous work in 12 Years a Slave, and Supporting Actress will go to Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave. To reward the best film of the year, Before Midnight will probably take the screenplay prize (it sure deserves it!). Foreign Film will probably go to Blue is the Warmest Color. A complete, uncluttered list of predictions are below.

Best Film
12 Years a Slave (alt. The Wolf of Wall Street, Inside Llewyn Davis)
Best Director
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave (alt. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity, Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street)
Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club, Mud (alt. Robert Redford, All is Lost, Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave)
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (alt. Adele Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color, Sandra Bullock, Gravity)
Best Supporting Actor
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave (alt. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club, Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street)
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita N'yongo, 12 Years a Slave (alt. June Squibb, Nebraska, Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle)
Best Screenplay
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight (alt. Terrence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street, John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave)
Best Foreign Film
Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue is the Warmest Color (Paolo Sorrentio, The Great Beauty, Asghar Farhadi, The Past)
Best Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Best Animated Film
Hayao Miyazaki, The Wind Rises
Best First Film
Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

Dallas Buyers Club (2013)- Review by Sean Wu

The moment the screen faded to black and the little title cards finished, a word popped into my mind. It started with the prefix trans.

Transsexual? There are characters like that in the film. Transportation? The lead man Ron Woodruff, played by Matthew McConaughey does transport himself worldwide. Transformative? That's the word. Why?

The word transformative applies to the work that both Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto do in the film. The hype for the film began last year, when both underwent astounding weight losses to participate in the film. Was it worth it? For a shot at a little gold man come March? You betcha.

2013 Rome Film Festival winners!

The 9th Rome Film Festival concluded, and this year marks a very unusual and possibly deserving recognition. The winner for Best Actress at this year's fest is the glamorous Scarlett Johansson, whose face is never seen in the film Her. Instead, she is the voice of a computer operating system. The road for Oscar with Johansson began at NYFF, and it looks like she can only go up from here.

In other news, Out of the Furnace won a prize, and so did Dallas Buyers Club. I predict in a couple years that the Rome Film Festival will be proclaimed as one of the big fests. Full list of winners below.

Golden Marc’Aurelio Award for Best Film: Tir by Alberto Fasulo
Best Director Award: Kiyoshi Kurosawa for Sebunsu kodo (Seventh Code)
Special Jury Prize: Quod Erat Demonstrandum by Andrei Gruzsniczk
Best Actor Award: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
Best Actress Award: Scarlett Johansson for Her
Award for Emerging Actor or Actress: the entire cast of Gass (Acrid)
Award for Best Technical Contribution: Koichi Takahashi for Sebunsu kodo(Seventh Code)
Award for Best Screenplay: Tayfun Pirselimoğlu for Ben o değilim (I Am Not Him)
Special Mention: Cui Jian for Lanse gutou (Blue Sky Bones)

Dallas Buyers Club trailer!

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

The Oscar frenzy is dawning upon us film fans, starting next week when Cuaron's Gravity premiers in Venice. Before then, I plan to finish what I started last month: the first round of Oscar nominee predictions!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
After losing a bit of buzz due to the lack of festival presence, Foxcatcher is bounding back with potential Oscar dominance with a release date (December 20th) AND a first image. Mark Ruffalo looks like a perfect winning contender due to three things:

-His character dies in a true story (The Academy might recognize that)
-He has been nominated before, but has yet to win (The Academy has been giving out a lot of first-time prizes lately)
-Mark is at a perfect spot in his career, with his role as the Hulk and many new movies coming out.

2. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Since Tom Hanks has two Oscar contending films (this and Captain Phillips), he is going to get his name thrown around a lot on the ballots. Especially since I think this role looks like a leading role, he has one more distinct advantage. He's also playing Walt Disney, if that helps (it definitely doesn't hurt).

3. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
Despite this film not showing on the festival circuit, this film looks like a mix of pulpy and sleek crime fun. Javier Bardem won the last time he worked with Cormac McCarthy material (the brilliant No Country for Old Men), so I think he has a good shot at a nomination with a showy role (that hair!) that also touches on mass drug production like the currently popular TV show Breaking Bad.

4. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Three films with Steve McQueen (not The Great Escape Steve) should result in some proper recognition. The last time a white character in a supporting role with a fantastic beard won an Oscar was last year, so this sort of role is not a taboo (unlike genitalia flaunting in Shame)

5. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Fans in the Academy of Thirty Seconds to Mars may vote for Leto... just because. Some will due to the extreme weight loss he went through with Matt McC(I'm not even going to try). Focus Features hasn't had a breadwinner in a while, so let's see if Dallas Buyers Club is as good as it looks.

Check back tomorrow for Best Supporting Actress predictions!

2014 Oscars: Best Actor predictions (7/6/2013)

Oscar season's begin is just more than a month away, with Venice starting in late August. Still, there is a certain amount of time to still do Oscar prognostication!

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Leo has been consistently snubbed for nominations, including his most recent work in Django Unchained. Again, he has Scorsese directing him, and I think this time he might win.

2. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Tom Hanks is pure Oscar-gold. This film has a distinct advantage due to him being the distinct star of the film, and his likability will be guarantee value on the campaign trail. Then again, he has won two time before, so... I have him as second most likely.

3. Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Steve Carrell is one of recent comedy's shining stars, but that will only make his portrayal of schizophrenic John DuPont only more surprising. Bennett Miller, the director, is also 2-for-2 when it comes to Best Actor nominations, and even leading to a win for Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Capote.

4. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Matt McConaughey is having an extremely incredible hot streak in films lately. He was in Jeff Nichols' Mud, and was the best part. He hasn't done a rom-com since 2009! Either way, this film is already recieving publicity due to McConaughey's extreme weight-loss as AIDS activist Ron Woodruff.

5. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Oscar Isaac is a true character actor, and this will be a guaranteed breakout role for the actor. The trailer portrays his growly singing and his poor condition. It is a guaranteed contender for CBS Films. I think this film will make a big impact on the campaign trail, so Oscar Isaac will be swept up with the film.

I also would like to mention Bruce Dern's work in Nebraska, a role that might fare better in the Supporting Actor category.