2014 Oscar Predictions. Final.

So it ends here. One of the most convoluted and hopelessly aimless years in Oscar history has ended. Here's my predictions for what's gonna take home gold on Sunday.

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

BEST ACTOR

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Spike Jonze, Her

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Great Beauty

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Frozen

BEST DOCUMENTARY

20 Feet from Stardom

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Get a Horse!

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT

The Voorman Problem (idk)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

The Lady in Number 6 (idk)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Gravity

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Let it Go (Frozen)

BEST FILM EDITING
Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING

Gravity

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Great Gatsby

BEST MAKEUP

Dallas Buyers Club

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Great Gatsby

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING / MIXING

Gravity

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Original Screenplay Nomination Predictions!

1. Spike Jonze, Her
Whoa, I literally exploded when Her won Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes. I was so happy, really. And now there is just a slight chance that Spike Jonze's masterpiece will win the Oscar it deserves.

2. Eric Warren Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle
It's not really a screenplay when the movie is loosely improvised. It's hilarious, it's fun, breezy. But it's all fluff, really.

3. Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Written ten years ago by a debut writer, it's a total Hollywood story. Doesn't hurt if the movie itself if good too, ya know.

4. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
It's his 48th feature, but Woody Allen really knows how to write a modern rendition, with this one being A Streetcar Named Desire. Take notes Baz Luhrmann.

5. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Word on the street is that voters hate the scene when Llewyn abandons the cat in the snow. Are you kidding me? Just because Llewyn abandons a cat, voters decide to not vote for what might as well be one of the best screenplays of the Coen brothers repertoire, and one of the best of the year? They must be joking really. I can't believe something so smoothly somber yet off-kilter and hilarious could go unrecognized by the WGA. The script is a masterpiece on it's own. But I think it can squeak in tomorrow. The Academy loves the Coens, and A Serious Man, probably their least accessible film, managed
a nomination in this category in 2009.

Keep your eyes peeled for Nicole Holofecener's Enough Said  and Dallas Buyers Club.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actress Nomination Predictions!

So there's two big contenders, and the rest is just filler to round out the five.

1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

It's her big debut, but a powerful one. As Patsy, the apple of Epps' eye, she is the epitome of slave dehumanization. It's a powerful performance, worthy of a win I guess. Actually, there is a below the line contender that should take the cake...

2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

It doesn't hurt to be Hollywood's it girl, but Jennifer Lawrence steals the show in what is the best performance of the film. Also she won the Golden Globe. She and Nyong'o are the two leading winner contenders, in the two leading film winner contenders.

3. June Squibb, Nebraska

Like Emma Thompson, this is a crotchety lady performance, but this one steals scenes likes no other. June Squibb's graveyard scene is the stuff Oscar dreams are made of.

4. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Remember when she was a leading contender? What doesn't work with her role is that it's neither emotionally engaging nor characterized well... but the fact that she's Oprah really helps with her campaign. She isn't always making the ballots, i.e. Golden Globes.

5. Scarlett Johansson, Her

You know what? It's come down between Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) and Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), but I've picked Scarlett Johansson. It's the greatest voice performance of all time, and blows all supporting performances this year out of the water. She's been nominated for many critics groups, and I think we might be looking at a bit of a surprise come tomorrow. IDK, I just really loved Her.

Yea, if Johansson doesn't make it (and probably won't), don't count out Roberts and Hawkins.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Actor Nomination Predictions!

This is the year's most packed category. Maybe this could be like the Emmys, where there were seven Best Actress nominees.

1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Geez this guy is great. He's great in the movie, he has Mud on his resume, ran away with the first ten minutes of The Wolf of Wall Street, and also is incredible in the first episode of True Detective. God he's on a hot streak. And the best way to reward Matthew McConaughey is with an Oscar. Nomination, at least.

2. Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave
What a triumphant performance. Really. This movie is great, and Ejiofer owns it.

3. Bruce Dern, Nebraska 
Yo. The movie's good, and Dern was probably the best part of it. It's funny on paper, and right below it is withering humanity and regret. And Dern, a well-liked Academy member, might get his nomination almost like a lifetime achievement sort of deal.

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Quality film, and DiCaprio being an actor that tends to overact, totally owns this role that is so unhinged and so damn crazy. Also winning the Golden Globe doesn't hurt.

5. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
He's Tom Hanks. Two-time Oscar winner in two years. Also the movie's based off a true story, that doesn't hurt.

Also don't forget about Robert Redford (All is Lost) and Christian Bale (American Hustle), two performances that would easily slide in if it was less crowded.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Picture Nomination Predictions!

So I've been slacking, no big deal. Final predictions, here goes nothing!

1. American Hustle
Winner of three Golden Globes, including Amy Adams. David O. Russell is on a hot streak too, so here's what's up: this movie is packing the heat. If we had a winner as of now, it would be American Hustle.

2. 12 Years a Slave
Enough said. No, not the Nicole Holofecener one. This film, despite winning only one Globe, took the Best Drama one. Winner of the TIFF People's Choice prize. Yea, it's a lock for a nom.

3. Gravity
Every year has one film that's a visual amazement. And those films were Avatar, Inception (not 3D, but still), Hugo, and Life of Pi. The list of films listed above were major Oscar contenders in their years, and Gravity might be the strongest one of recent memory. It's certainly the best one. And Cuaron's Globe win doesn't hurt at all.

4. Nebraska
Everyone's eating up this small town flick by the deadpan quirk man Alexander Payne. It's good, yea, but most people seem to like the movie more than me. I can see why.

5. Her
It's the best film since Martin Scorsese's GoodFellas. I know that the movie has an audience, and I'm part of it. It's so good. I don't have to hope for votes, though, it's bound to get nominated. It's so worthy.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Amid the controversy is a passionate fanbase. It's a great movie, no doubt. Masterpiece level really. And since voters can't mark films they hate, the film's fanbase is bound to get it nominated.

7. Captain Phillips
Probably the weakest out of all nominees. I really can't see it getting number one votes, but it's hit all the guilds, and that's what counts. Whatever, I'll count it as a nominee.

8. Saving Mr. Banks
Another Tom Hanks picture, supported only by Emma Thompson's lead performance. One month ago we were looking at the possible winner, now we're just seeing a movie headed for two noms.

9. Dallas Buyers Club
The underdog of the Oscar season. It's been on the PGA, the WGA, the SAG... and McConaughey plus Leto really make the film a contenda. Actors will vote this one high.

10. Inside Llewyn Davis
Good god I wished this one was a lock. It's the best film by the Coen brothers. Really. Despite falling off the WGA and PGA list, the film did win the National Society of Film Critics and AFI, so it's got a fanbase. The Academy has a thing for the directing duo, since True Grit surprised with 10 noms and A Serious Man was a total surprise in 2009.

Look out for Blue Jasmine, Fruitvale Station and Philomena. This year is so packed.

AFI Top 10 Films of 2013!

I've always had a soft spot for the AFI Top 10, because it was a list that recognized Terrence Malick's epic The Tree of Life. This soft spot still continues, because the the top 10 released today is fantastic. (WOOOOO NO BUTLER)

AFI MOVIES OF THE YEAR
12 YEARS A SLAVE
AMERICAN HUSTLE
CAPTAIN PHILLIPS
FRUITVALE STATION
GRAVITY
HER
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
NEBRASKA
SAVING MR. BANKS
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET

Boston Film Critcs gives top prize to 12 Years a Slave, loves Enough Said and Nebraska.

So they're announcing today too. Busy day, eh?

BEST EDITING

Rush

BEST MUSIC

Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST NEW FILMMAKER

Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

BEST ANIMATED FILM

The Wind Rises

BEST DOCUMENTARY

The Act of Killing

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Gravity

BEST ENSEMBLE

Nebraska

BEST SCREENPLAY 

Nicole Holofocener, Enough Said

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

James Gandolfini, Enough Said

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (or James Gandolfini, IDK)

BEST ACTOR

Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave

BEST DIRECTOR

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Wadjda

LA Film Critics award winners reward Gravity AND Her!

Great announcements! Gravity got its biggest traction to date, and it may look like that we all have been underestimating what people thought of when it came to Her. This is an odd critics award session, because rewards were all over the place for so many films. I honestly have no idea where this award season is going.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Her, runner-up Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave, runner-up June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST EDITING:

Gravity, runner-up Upstream Color

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Gravity, runner-up Inside Llewyn Davis

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Tie! James Franco, Spring Breakers (YES!), Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ANIMATION:

Ernest and Celestine, runner-up The Wind Rises

BEST MUSIC:

Inside Llewyn Davis, runner-up Her

BEST DOCUMENTARY:
Stories We Tell, runner-up The Act of Killing

BEST DIRECTOR:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity, runner-up Spike Jonze, Her

BEST ACTOR:
Bruce Dern, Nebraska, runner-up Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave

BEST SCREENPLAY:
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight (YES!!!), runner-up Spike Jonze, Her


BEST ACTRESS:
Tie!! Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine, Adele Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color

BEST PICTURE:
TIE!!! Gravity AND Her!


BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM:
Blue is the Warmest Color, runner-up The Great Beauty (YAY!)

NEW GENERATION PRIZE:
Megan Ellison (Annapurna Pictures)

LEGACY OF CINEMA:
The Criterion Collection

SPECIAL CITATION:
Creative team of 12 Years a Slave

Nebraska (2013)- Movie Review by Sean Wu

The midwest is a place I know well, for I am an Iowan. Nebraska is a film with a cast of Nebraskan small town folk, stereotyped in a greedy way. Is it offensive at all? Not really, because it is also very hilarious.

As a whole, Nebraska is one of the funniest films of 2013. Debut screenwriter Bob Nelson uses hilarious situations to his advantage, having his characters say the darndest things and having incredible stupidity, similar to what the Coens did to Minnesotans in Fargo. The best performer of  Nelson's dialogue is June Squibb, a character actress that lit up the screen at age 84, and elicited a laughter in almost every scene she was in. She's certainly worthy of an Oscar nomination.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture (11/16/13)

The last time I did a Best Picture prediction post was in May, when the Cannes Film Festival ended and Foxcatcher was still planned to come out this year. Oh the memories.

1. 12 Years a Slave
A prime release date. High acclaim. Based off a true story/ Great screenplay. Strong performances. Right now this looks like the film to beat, and one that maybe no one will come March. Did I mention that this film was based off a
true story?

2. Gravity
In any other year, this film would be a lock for a win. However, with 12 Years a Slave, this film is going to play second fiddle. Still, this film should be patting itself on the back for Bullock's incredible one-woman performance and the smashing box office success this film was.

3. American Hustle
Directed by maybe the most successful director of this decade, David O. Russell. A stellar cast working the reigns and the six-minute p
review out of the AFI Fest is so far saying good things. December cannot come any sooner.

4. Captain Phillips
Though I did not like this film as much as many other people did, you simply can't count this one out of the race. The performances by Tom Hanks and Barkhad Abdi are worthy of acclaim, and this film does have what it takes to amass the #1 votes.

5. Saving Mr. Banks
Another Tom Hanks feature, but with 1990's Oscar champ Emma Thompson leading. This is the sweet stuff that will appeal to a certain Oscar crowd. Word out of London and AFI says that this film isn't shabby too.

6. The Wolf of Wall Street
Is this Shutter Island or Hugo? Casino or GoodFellas? Either way, this film is hotly anticipated, and one cannot simply count out Scorsese.

7. Inside Llewyn Davis
A hit out of Cannes, and if A Serious Man managed a nom, shouldn't this one be a lock? Like Scorsese, you simply cannot count out the Coens.

8. Her
The Academy has recognized Spike Jonze's Adaptation and Being John Malkovich, and word from NYFF says that this one is trump. It it just too crowded? Expect a screenplay nomination at least.

9. Nebraska
This is a strong film in a strong year, but again, is it just too crowded? The chances for Dern earning an acting nomination seem to be increasingly likely, so this could go two ways: Many nominations for the film, or just the acting and screenplay nomination.

Doesn't matter, with films like these, this is maybe the strongest year in film since 2007 or maybe even 1999. Wow.

Don't count out these films though:

Blue is the Warmest Color
Expect critics groups to go gaga for Blue. With a 3
hour runtime and publicity between feuding actors and director Abdellatif Kechiche, this film just might get the attention necessary to warrant viewers and #1 votes. Also since this film is ineligible for the Foreign prize, there's a slim chance that the Academy might want to find a way to reward this film. Also a dark horse contender in this film is lead actress Adele Exarchopolous, a fresh face that's already been doing some campaigning on her part.

Blue Jasmine
Cate Blanchett is still the one to top for the Best Actress category, and this is also Allen's best film since Crimes and Misdemeanors. This is bubbling under the Best Picture pack, but Sony Pictures Classics is a mighty mouse in a lion's game: they consistently nab foreign language Oscars and last year got five nominations for Amour.

The Butler and August: Osage County
Both of these films have stellar casts, despite mixed reception (I can testify about The Butler). These two ar films that will easily appeal to the acting branch.

First poster and trailer for Alexander Payne's Nebraska.

I have to admit, I am really digging the advertising for Payne's latest. I do love me some nostalgia.

Cannes 2013 lineup!

Can't wait!

In Competition

Only God Forgives, dir Nicolas Winding Refn
Inside Llewyn Davis, dir Ethan and Joel Coen
Borgman, dir Alex Can Warmerdam
La Grande Bellezza, dir Paulo Sorrentino
Behind the Candelabra, dir Steven Soderbergh
La Venus a la Fourrure, dir Roman Polanski
Nebraska, dir Alexander Payne
Jeune et Jolie, dir François Ozon
La Vie d'Adele, dir Abdellatif Kechiche
Wara No Tate, dir Takashi Miike
Soshite Chichi Ni Naru, dir Kore-Eda Hirokazu
Tian Zhu Ding, dir Jia Zhangke
Grisgris, dir Mahamat-Saleh Haroun
The Immigrant, dir James Gray
Heli, dir Amat Escalante
Le Passe, dir Asghar Farhadi
Michael Kohlhaas, dir Arnaud Despallieres
Un Chateau en Italie, dir Valeria Bruni-Tedeschi

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Trying to predict next year's Best Picture winner and nominees is about as easy as throwing a dart on the center of a dartboard... from 10 yards away. Moral of the story is, that it is pointless and near-impossible.

1. The Monuments Men
George Clooney has yet to win his directing Oscar, and this is a very attractive project for the Academy to vote for. It is in WWII, a true story, and has an all-star cast. If this wins director for Clooney, it might as well  win picture.

2. Untitled David O. Russell Abscam Project
That is a mouthful! At least this is not the final project title. This is also a true political thriller, like Monuments Men and recent victor Argo. David O. Russell has yet to win his Oscar, so chances are this could be his prize winning film if it turns out well. This also has an all-star cast, boasting the likes of Christian Bale, Jen Lawrence, and Bradley Cooper (just to name a few).

3. The Wolf of Wall Street
Another film with an unrewarded component. This time, it is actor Leonardo DiCaprio, in a part he has described as 'his best one yet'. Scorsese is behind the camera, and his last film Hugo did very well at the Oscars. Let this be an indicator of name recognition.

4. Foxcatcher
Bennet Miller is king when it comes to biopics. Both Capote and Moneyball were nominees in their respective years. This one might have winning performance with Mark Ruffalo as a late wrestler killed by a schizophrenic (Steve Carell).

5. The Counselor
Brad Pitt, the popular actor. Cormac McCarthy, the popular writer. Ridley Scott, the popular director. 20th Century Fox, the popular studio. Javier Bardem, ANOTHER popular actor! Need I say more?

The remaining 5 films I think have a shot at a nom are listed below. (in order!)
6. Captain Phillips
7. August: Osage County
8. Nebraska
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Fruitvale

Maybe none of these will be nominees. Maybe all of them will be. We'll find out in 10 months...