2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Actor Nomination Predictions!

This is the year's most packed category. Maybe this could be like the Emmys, where there were seven Best Actress nominees.

1. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Geez this guy is great. He's great in the movie, he has Mud on his resume, ran away with the first ten minutes of The Wolf of Wall Street, and also is incredible in the first episode of True Detective. God he's on a hot streak. And the best way to reward Matthew McConaughey is with an Oscar. Nomination, at least.

2. Chiwetel Ejiofer, 12 Years a Slave
What a triumphant performance. Really. This movie is great, and Ejiofer owns it.

3. Bruce Dern, Nebraska 
Yo. The movie's good, and Dern was probably the best part of it. It's funny on paper, and right below it is withering humanity and regret. And Dern, a well-liked Academy member, might get his nomination almost like a lifetime achievement sort of deal.

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Quality film, and DiCaprio being an actor that tends to overact, totally owns this role that is so unhinged and so damn crazy. Also winning the Golden Globe doesn't hurt.

5. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
He's Tom Hanks. Two-time Oscar winner in two years. Also the movie's based off a true story, that doesn't hurt.

Also don't forget about Robert Redford (All is Lost) and Christian Bale (American Hustle), two performances that would easily slide in if it was less crowded.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

The Oscar frenzy is dawning upon us film fans, starting next week when Cuaron's Gravity premiers in Venice. Before then, I plan to finish what I started last month: the first round of Oscar nominee predictions!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
1. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
After losing a bit of buzz due to the lack of festival presence, Foxcatcher is bounding back with potential Oscar dominance with a release date (December 20th) AND a first image. Mark Ruffalo looks like a perfect winning contender due to three things:

-His character dies in a true story (The Academy might recognize that)
-He has been nominated before, but has yet to win (The Academy has been giving out a lot of first-time prizes lately)
-Mark is at a perfect spot in his career, with his role as the Hulk and many new movies coming out.

2. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Since Tom Hanks has two Oscar contending films (this and Captain Phillips), he is going to get his name thrown around a lot on the ballots. Especially since I think this role looks like a leading role, he has one more distinct advantage. He's also playing Walt Disney, if that helps (it definitely doesn't hurt).

3. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
Despite this film not showing on the festival circuit, this film looks like a mix of pulpy and sleek crime fun. Javier Bardem won the last time he worked with Cormac McCarthy material (the brilliant No Country for Old Men), so I think he has a good shot at a nomination with a showy role (that hair!) that also touches on mass drug production like the currently popular TV show Breaking Bad.

4. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Three films with Steve McQueen (not The Great Escape Steve) should result in some proper recognition. The last time a white character in a supporting role with a fantastic beard won an Oscar was last year, so this sort of role is not a taboo (unlike genitalia flaunting in Shame)

5. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Fans in the Academy of Thirty Seconds to Mars may vote for Leto... just because. Some will due to the extreme weight loss he went through with Matt McC(I'm not even going to try). Focus Features hasn't had a breadwinner in a while, so let's see if Dallas Buyers Club is as good as it looks.

Check back tomorrow for Best Supporting Actress predictions!

2014 Oscars: Best Actor predictions (7/6/2013)

Oscar season's begin is just more than a month away, with Venice starting in late August. Still, there is a certain amount of time to still do Oscar prognostication!

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Leo has been consistently snubbed for nominations, including his most recent work in Django Unchained. Again, he has Scorsese directing him, and I think this time he might win.

2. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Tom Hanks is pure Oscar-gold. This film has a distinct advantage due to him being the distinct star of the film, and his likability will be guarantee value on the campaign trail. Then again, he has won two time before, so... I have him as second most likely.

3. Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Steve Carrell is one of recent comedy's shining stars, but that will only make his portrayal of schizophrenic John DuPont only more surprising. Bennett Miller, the director, is also 2-for-2 when it comes to Best Actor nominations, and even leading to a win for Phillip Seymour Hoffman in Capote.

4. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Matt McConaughey is having an extremely incredible hot streak in films lately. He was in Jeff Nichols' Mud, and was the best part. He hasn't done a rom-com since 2009! Either way, this film is already recieving publicity due to McConaughey's extreme weight-loss as AIDS activist Ron Woodruff.

5. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Oscar Isaac is a true character actor, and this will be a guaranteed breakout role for the actor. The trailer portrays his growly singing and his poor condition. It is a guaranteed contender for CBS Films. I think this film will make a big impact on the campaign trail, so Oscar Isaac will be swept up with the film.

I also would like to mention Bruce Dern's work in Nebraska, a role that might fare better in the Supporting Actor category.

Captain Phillips trailer!

Trailer for Paul Greengrass' Captain Phillips. In the style of  the masterful United 93, I'm game.

War film analysis

I have yet to see War Horse, and as I type, I'm watch The Thin Red Line on my laptop. First off, there's no battle scene in this film that can challenge the opening in Saving Private Ryan, a film that came out the same year, and they both competed for Oscar hot-seat. However, The Thin Red Line is much more human than Spileberg's epic, and Malick's film, when it meanders, does it well.

84th Oscars: Best Picture Nominees

If you were to ask anyone who the Oscar front runner is, you'll hear The Artist, The Descendants, or even Moneyball. (Yes, I'm talking about Sasha Stone,). The fact that there is no real front runner is a delight, and makes the game a real guess.

I'm going to say there is about a 5% chance of Bridesmaids being nominated. I'm extending the margin just in case it happens. I would also put a 3% chance on J. Edgar, because... it's not that good. Drive would have a 15% chance, despite it's goodness.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Gee, I'm giving it a 50/50 chance. (The movie 50/50 is getting a 1% chance, even though it looks good,). One of my last articles, Extreme Loss and Incredible Crap? is unfairly titled, but EL&IC is losing chances with a now 65% tomato-meter. It's pretty much holding on by Daldry and Hanks. Horn's performance is too divisive.

Speaking of divisive, The Tree of Life (My favorite movie of 2011!). It's quite divisive, just read the RT reviews here. It has a 61% audience approval rating, but an 84% Critics Rank. Either way, I think with Daldry's loss, the year's best film will become a nominee. I'm giving it a 75% chance of being nominated.

On the note of 75, that's the RT score for The Help. It's probably the year's "Audience picks" nominee, one that parents at home probably saw. I'm not going to lie, but I actually liked it quite a bit. It's a good flair of comedy and drama, and I really want Viola Davis to win Best Actress. In fact, I think the performances keep the whole film afloat. They are hard to ignore, so... 90% chance of being nominated in my book.

Over Christmas Break, I want to see The Descendants and The Artist, the two real front runners. There was a third, War Horse, but it's losing chances. The Descendants, 99.9%. The Artist, 100% (My bet to win,). War Horse, 95%.

In fact, if you want to be nominated, be different. The Tree of Life and The Artist are probably the most different films out of the bunch. The former being more divisive.