Ever since the announcement last September, I could not figure out for the life of me why Fox was releasing Hitchcock this year, right after The Sessions played at TIFF. I think I've figured it out.
They don't have faith in the picture.
The Session, from what I've read is a drama with comedic scenes, but that does not seem the case, judging by the trailer. Fox has not picked up another Little Miss Sunshine. If I ever get around to seeing The Sessions, there's a chance I might like it more than LMS.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Like J. Law for Silver Linings Playbook, Anne Hathaway's star power is going to help her get the gold. Once nominated, and not hated for hosting the Oscars, and I have adamantly stated that Les Mis is not going home empty-handed... the stars are aligning for her win.
2. Amy Adams for The Master
Though praise for her performance is muted due to Hoffman and Phoenix, Weinstein will push Adams for the nomination. Star power, and being nominated four times before does not hurt. If Les Mis falls, expect Adams for the win.
3. Helen Hunt for The Sessions This film is going to be difficult for the Academy. A main subject in the film is sex, which was a big no-no last year (Shame anyone?), so it seems Fox Searchlight is trying to market it as a comedy. Helen's role is quite clearly a lead, but it seems Fox doesn't even have faith in itself. Hopefully the Supporting Actress nom goes through.
4. Sally Field for Lincoln
Even if her role is not that meaty, the Academy will nominate her. They like her, they really really like her.
5. Scarlett Johansson for Hitchcock
It seems I am probably one of the most adamant supporters of Hitchcock, mainly because I think that it might be something special. Others are predicting Maggie Smith for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, but that film was from May, and Fox might be busy pushing Helen Hunt for The Sessions. ScarJo has the star power and the younger voters of the Academy will give their vote to her.
Check back tomorrow for Best Supporting Actor
predictions. While your at it, why don't you guys find out why the Academy really likes Sally Field.
BEST ACTOR:
1. Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables
This is another very bold prediction. No, I do not think Day-Lewis will win an unprecedented third Oscar for Best Actor, and I'm pretty sure the Academy loves Hugh. Nor do I think Les Miserables will go home empty handed.
2. Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook The weird thing is that I'm starting to like Bradley Cooper as an actor now. He is doing more challenging roles, later seen in The Place Beyond the Pines and David O'Rusell's previously titled American Bulls***. When Silver Linings takes the top prize, it's going to take more than that. Also, Bradley's got Harvey with him.
3. Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
For the greatest actor of our generation, the academy might feel inclined to give some love to Danny. They probably won't give him a third Oscar, no man has ever won three Oscars for Best Actor in the first place. He will definitely be nominated, though.
4. Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
This is a very obvious nomination. After winning Best Actor in Venice, and only receiving love for this challenging role, he will be nominated. For those who don't like the film, however, they won't give him the boost for the win.
5. Anthony Hopkins for Hitchcock Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor in 1991 for his terrifying work in The Silence of the Lambs. He is almost synonymous with horror (and Merchant-Ivory,), and if he does even OK as the Master of Suspense, he will be nominated.
I hate to leave Ben Affleck off for Argo (being in Daredevil and Gigli kills, man,), but something inside me tells me he has a better shot than Spielberg for Argo. Something also tells me that Lincoln might be ignored, a la Amistad.
Check back tomorrow for Best Supporting Actress predictions. While your at it, admire Joaquin Phoenix's performance by watching a trailer for The Master.
BEST PICTURE:
1. Silver Linings Playbook
This film is just OWNING it. After winning the top prize at TIFF, this film is just getting nothing but love. J. Law is a lock for Best Actress, with The Hunger Games not hurting a single bit.
2. Argo
Runner-up at TIFF. 95% on Rotten Tomatoes. Roger Ebert calling it his winner. Ben Affleck needing the love after missing it by this much for The Town. This just begs a nomination, even a win.
3. Lincoln
Who knows with this one. It's got Spielberg and Day-Lewis. Also, the Academy just eats up period-dramas, with Anna Karenina losing its chances, this film has nowhere to go but up.
4. Life of Pi
This will be the Hugo of 2011. Big name director. High visual effects praise. High praise in general actually. This could be #3 tomorrow for all I know.
5. Les Miserables Has near-irresistible cast. I think Universal should emphasize the Tom Hooper thing a bit more. The main thing holding this bad boy back is the release day change. Is it ready?
6. The Master
Not everyone loves this movie, that's a bonafide fact. But a select few love it, and that's enough. This will play out like The Tree of Life did.
7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
This will really need the people who love this film to truly love it. Now that it has been deemed ineligible for SAG, it needs the AFI and PGA love. Quevenzhane Wallis is going to need a big boost from Fox Searchlight, but they might be busy promoting...
8. Hitchcock
This film should be higher. All Fox Searchlight has though is a poster. Since the film has been moved forward to a release date this year, Fox Searchlight thinks they have a good deal on their plate. Also, since the Academy is mainly old, white, and male, they probably love Alfred Hitchcock, and Anthony Hopkins. And the young men in the Academy probably dig ScarJo, which doesn't hurt.
Runners-up include Zero Dark Thirty, Promised Land, The Impossible, The Dark Knight Rises, Django Unchained, Anna Karenina, and Moonrise Kingdom.
Check back tomorrow for Best Director predictions...
Ever since the announcement last September, I could not figure out for the life of me why Fox was releasing Hitchcock this year, right after The Sessions played at TIFF. I think I've figured it out.
