Yes, Argo. This film was my favorite of the year as of three weeks ago, but I am going to give that spot to The Dark Knight Rises or Skyfall. However, this film is an ultimate crowdpleaser, and the Academy will embrace it because its a true story. Also, it has some of the sharpest writing of 2012.
This film was #1 on my last predictions, but now it is fallen. The film will be difficult to embrace due to the fact that it deals with mental illness, and the cast is predominantly young. The young voters will vote for it, but its chances are still ever-slipping.
This film just came out, and it is being very well loved by many. The film also has one of the best performances of the year, with Daniel Day-Lewis. The older voters will love it, and it is also based off a true story
4. Les Miserables
It's Tom Hooper making his return to film, and it's big. This movie is guaranteed to be divisive, since it is more like an opera than a musical. This is probably a case where the film is 'too big to fail'.
5. Life of Pi
Remember the last time the Academy embraced a PG, 3D movie? Yeah, it was called Hugo, and it was last year. The CGI in the film is gorgeous, and probably irresistible to the voters. I'm pretty sure that the novel was also read by many in the Academy.
6. The Master
The Master. I'm still dying to see it. Those who voted for The Tree of Life last year will vote for this one, and it also features stunning acting by Joaquin Phoenix. This one is also a bonafide winner for Best Original Screenplay. This one probably benefits from the new Academy voting system, just like Tree did last year.
7. Zero Dark Thirty
Sony has a lot of faith in this one, and everyone knows it. The trailer reviews is infinite praise, and the film is also Kathryn Bigelow's return to work. This film also benefits from the 'true story' aspect, and those who voted for The Hurt Locker will follow through with this one.
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
This one is going to make it in, barely. Critics who have seen it and said that it was 'best of the year' changed their mind after The Master. There's still an audience for this one, but no SAG can really hurt.