SAG Winner predictions!

The SAG Awards are tonight, and their unusually strong support for August: Osage County and The Butler clearly didn't translate to the Academy Awards.

BEST ENSEMBLE: American Hustle. Because in October, people like me were hailing 12 Years a Slave as the instant winner. I think that the simmering cast here is going to provide a bit of an unsurprising upset.

BEST ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club. He won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice, so he's unstoppable right now. In fact, the SAG seems to factor men's looks into voting, because in 2003 Johnny Depp won for Pirates of the Caribbean. Sorry Chiwetel.

BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. Because.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. Because.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle. She's the hot thing in Hollywood, and she'll be swept up with the Best Ensemble prize. Or vice-versa.

SAG Award nominations!

SAG has always been an organization that has crushed dreams, at least for me. The Master, last year, was snubbed for Amy Adams and Joaquin Phoenix. However, they've always been recognized as a pivotal organization, one that has announcements so powerful, that any film nominated in the Best Film Ensemble is an instant contender. This go-around though, three of the nominees (Dallas Buyers Club, The Butler, August: Osage County) have been below the radar... below. Major snubs include the heat-gaining Her, and Scorsese's latest The Wolf of Wall Street.

BEST FILM ENSEMBLE
"12 Years a Slave"
"American Hustle"
"August: Osage County"
"The Butler"
"Dallas Buyers Club"

BEST ACTOR
Bruce Dern, "Nebraska"
Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave"
Tom Hanks, "Captain Phillips"
Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"
Forest Whitaker, "The Butler"

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"
Sandra Bullock, "Gravity"
Judi Dench, "Philomena"
Meryl Streep, "August: Osage County"
Emma Thompson, "Saving Mr. Banks"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"
Daniel Bruhl, "Rush"
Michael Fassbender, "12 Years a Slave"
James Gandolfini, "Enough Said"
Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle"
Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years a Slave"
Julia Roberts, "August: Osage County"
June Squibb, "Nebraska"
Oprah Winfrey, "The Butler"

BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
"All is Lost"
"Fast & Furious 6"
"Lone Survivor"
"Rush"
"The Wolverine"

SAG Winners!

I was able to get 3/5 on my predictions. In my defense, Argo winning Best Cast was a surprise, and Supporting Actor was a mess this year.

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
BEST ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
BEST CAST: Argo

The Guilds, some things to note.

Every year, the most important precursors shake the race. The guilds, namely SAG and PGA. The Screen Actors Guild is on Sunday, and the Producers Guild announces tomorrow. The two films that are truly seeking Oscar gold are Silver Linings Playbooks and Lincoln, based on number of nominations. Argo is also one one more contender that is missing the all-precious directors nomination that is restraining a potential Oscar victory.

PGA Prediction:
Lincoln

SAG (Best Cast) Prediction:
Silver Linings Playbook

This weekend can mark a weekend of great change. In 2006, Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA, and became a hopeful to a true contender. It lost the Golden Globe and was mainly skunked out of a directing nomination. 2006's PGA also marked the beginning of the end of Dreamgirls.

2006 was one of the more messy years in recent memory, and I would like to see a major upset within this weekend. Like Zero Dark Thirty winning the PGA, but that's all just a dream.

The actors in SAG are in the Academy, the same won that gave four acting nominations to Silver Linings Playbook. This is the same Academy that gave 3 acting nominations to The Master, and 1 SAG nomination. Still, Silver Linings Playbook is an actors piece, and it is a piece that is quite popular.  Still, Silver Linings will probably win the big prize in this shindig. This probably means they will give the Best Actress prize to Jennifer Lawrence's very good work in Silver Linings Playbook instead of Jessica Chastain's powerhouse work in Zero Dark Thirty.

Complete SAG predictions below:

Best Actor- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress- Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor- No idea. Hoping for an upset, so Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (No Django nominees)
Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (duh!)

More after the jump discussing this weekend's significance.

Who is going to win Best Actress? It's a three-horse race.

Winning Best Actress would
not be... 'Impossible' *groan*

I've passionately supported Jessica Chastain to win Best Actress. The Golden Globes will not tell us anything, since Jennifer Lawrence is in the comedy category, and Chastain is in the drama category. Lawrence has an easy win, and I initially thought Chastain had another easy race, but as the Navy SEALS say- 'No Easy Day'. I never realized how much of a boost Watts was getting by SAG and Golden Globes, and she is quite popular in the industry. Do not be surprised if Watts surprises with a Globes win, so SAG might truly be the best way to determine the winner.

Consider that last year's SAG winner Viola Davis lost in Streep sympathy vote, and Watts just might win in a 'sorry we forgot to nominate you for Fair Game and whatever else' surprise. Lawrence is just still too young to win, by voters standards. Chastain is uber-popular and hopefully wins. I honestly don't know who will win. It's a three-horse race, and anyone can win.

Speaking of horse races, here is a video of a horse that began last and strode up to first. ARRRRRR!

Critics Choice and SAG Nominees!

Critics Choice:

BEST PICTURE
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
John Hawkes – “The Sessions”
Hugh Jackman – “Les Misérables”
Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
Denzel Washington – “Flight”

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Emmanuelle Riva – “Amour”
Quvenzhané Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”
Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin – “Argo”
Javier Bardem – “Skyfall”
Robert De Niro – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
Matthew McConaughey – “Magic Mike”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – “The Master”
Judi Dench – “Skyfall”
Ann Dowd – “Compliance”
Sally Field – “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway – “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Elle Fanning – “Ginger & Rosa”
Kara Hayward – “Moonrise Kingdom”
Tom Holland – “The Impossible”
Logan Lerman – “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
Suraj Sharma – “Life of Pi”
Quvenzhané Wallis – “Beasts of the Southern Wild”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Argo
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Misérables
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck – “Argo”
Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Tom Hooper – “Les Misérables”
Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
David O. Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Quentin Tarantino – “Django Unchained”
John Gatins – “Flight”
Rian Johnson – “Looper”
Paul Thomas Anderson – “The Master”
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola – “Moonrise Kingdom”
Mark Boal – “Zero Dark Thirty”

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Chris Terrio – “Argo”
David Magee – “Life of Pi”
Tony Kushner – “Lincoln”
Stephen Chbosky – “The Perks of Being a Wallflower”
David O. Russell – “Silver Linings Playbook”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Les Misérables” – Danny Cohen
“Life of Pi” – Claudio Miranda
“Lincoln” – Janusz Kaminski
“The Master” – Mihai Malaimare Jr.
“Skyfall” – Roger Deakins

BEST ART DIRECTION
“Anna Karenina” – Sarah Greenwood/Production Designer; Katie Spencer/Set Decorator
“The Hobbit” – Dan Hennah/Production Designer; Ra Vincent & Simon Bright/Set Decorators
“Les Misérables” – Eve Stewart/Production Designer; Anna Lynch-Robinson/Set Decorator
“Life of Pi” – David Gropman/Production Designer; Anna Pinnock/Set Decorator
“Lincoln” – Rick Carter/Production Designer; Jim Erickson/Set Decorator

BEST EDITING
“Argo” – William Goldenberg
“Les Misérables” – Melanie Ann Oliver and Chris Dickens
“Life of Pi” – Tim Squyres
“Lincoln” – Michael Kahn
“Zero Dark Thirty” – William Goldenberg and Dylan Tichenor

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Anna Karenina” – Jacqueline Durran
“Cloud Atlas” – Kym Barrett and Pierre-Yves Gayraud
“The Hobbit” – Bob Buck, Ann Maskrey and Richard Taylor
“Les Misérables” – Paco Delgado
“Lincoln” – Joanna Johnston

BEST MAKEUP
Cloud Atlas
The Hobbit
Les Misérables
Lincoln

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
Life of Pi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave
Frankenweenie
Madagascar 3
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph

BEST ACTION MOVIE
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
Looper
Skyfall

BEST ACTOR IN AN ACTION MOVIE
Christian Bale – “The Dark Knight Rises”
Daniel Craig – “Skyfall”
Robert Downey Jr. – “The Avengers”
Joseph Gordon-Levitt – “Looper”
Jake Gyllenhaal – “End of Watch”

BEST ACTRESS IN AN ACTION MOVIE
Emily Blunt – “Looper”
Gina Carano – “Haywire”
Judi Dench – “Skyfall”
Anne Hathaway – “The Dark Knight Rises”
Jennifer Lawrence – “The Hunger Games”

BEST COMEDY
Bernie
Silver Linings Playbook
Ted
This Is 40
21 Jump Street

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Jack Black – “Bernie”
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Paul Rudd – “This Is 40”
Channing Tatum – “21 Jump Street”
Mark Wahlberg – “Ted”

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Mila Kunis – “Ted”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Shirley MacLaine – “Bernie”
Leslie Mann – “This Is 40”
Rebel Wilson – “Pitch Perfect”

BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE
The Cabin in the Woods
Looper
Prometheus

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour
The Intouchables
A Royal Affair
Rust and Bone

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bully
The Central Park Five
The Imposter
The Queen of Versailles
Searching for Sugar Man
West of Memphis

BEST SONG
“For You” – performed by Keith Urban/written by Monty Powell & Keith Urban – Act of Valor
“Learn Me Right” – performed by Birdy with Mumford & Sons/written by Mumford & Sons – Brave
“Skyfall” – performed by Adele/written by Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth – Skyfall
“Still Alive” – performed by Paul Williams/written by Paul Williams – Paul Williams Still Alive
“Suddenly” – performed by Hugh Jackman/written by Claude-Michel Schonberg & Alain Boublil & Herbert Kretzmer – Les Misérables

BEST SCORE
“Argo” – Alexandre Desplat
“Life of Pi” – Mychael Danna
“Lincoln” – John Williams
“The Master” – Jonny Greenwood
“Moonrise Kingdom” – Alexandre Desplat

SAG:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
BRADLEY COOPER / Pat – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS / Abraham Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
JOHN HAWKES / Mark – “THE SESSIONS” (Fox Searchlight)
HUGH JACKMAN / Jean Valjean – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)
DENZEL WASHINGTON / Whip Whitaker – “FLIGHT” (Paramount Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
JESSICA CHASTAIN / Maya – “ZERO DARK THIRTY” (Columbia Pictures)
MARION COTILLARD / Stephanie – “RUST AND BONE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE / Tiffany – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
HELEN MIRREN / Alma Reville – “HITCHCOCK” (Fox Searchlight)
NAOMI WATTS / Maria – “THE IMPOSSIBLE” (Summit Entertainment)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
ALAN ARKIN / Lester Siegel – “ARGO” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JAVIER BARDEM / Silva – “SKYFALL” (Columbia Pictures)
ROBERT DE NIRO / Pat, Sr. – “SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK” (The Weinstein Company)
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN / Lancaster Dodd – “THE MASTER” (The Weinstein Company)
TOMMY LEE JONES / Thaddeus Stevens – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
SALLY FIELD / Mary Todd Lincoln – “LINCOLN” (Touchstone Pictures)
ANNE HATHAWAY / Fantine – “LES MISÉRABLES” (Universal Pictures)
HELEN HUNT / Cheryl – “THE SESSIONS” (Fox Searchlight)
NICOLE KIDMAN / Charlotte Bless – “THE PAPERBOY” (Millennium Entertainment)
MAGGIE SMITH / Muriel Donnelly – “THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL” (Fox Searchlight)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
ARGO (Warner Bros. Pictures)

THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL (Fox Searchlight)
LES MISÉRABLES (Universal Pictures)

LINCOLN (Touchstone Pictures)

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK (The Weinstein Company)

SAG Winners.

From my earlier predictions, I have a nice 60%. Not bad, since I correctly predicted that The Help would win Best Cast. Jean Dujardin was a total curveball, but Viola was a welcome surprise.

Best Actor
Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Best Actress
Viola Davis, The Help

Best Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Best Cast
The Help

SAG Predix.

Best Cast: The Help. I honestly think it has the higher acting chops than The Artist.


Best Actor: George Clooney, The Descendants. George is unstoppable. With BFCA and Golden Globes, he got it.

Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady. I really want Viola to win. Her performance was subtle and great.

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners. Unstoppable!

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help. Her lead and Viola's 2nd place has a Best Cast success.