SAG Winner predictions!

The SAG Awards are tonight, and their unusually strong support for August: Osage County and The Butler clearly didn't translate to the Academy Awards.

BEST ENSEMBLE: American Hustle. Because in October, people like me were hailing 12 Years a Slave as the instant winner. I think that the simmering cast here is going to provide a bit of an unsurprising upset.

BEST ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club. He won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice, so he's unstoppable right now. In fact, the SAG seems to factor men's looks into voting, because in 2003 Johnny Depp won for Pirates of the Caribbean. Sorry Chiwetel.

BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine. Because.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. Because.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle. She's the hot thing in Hollywood, and she'll be swept up with the Best Ensemble prize. Or vice-versa.

2013 Oscar Nominations: Best Supporting Actress Nomination Predictions!

So there's two big contenders, and the rest is just filler to round out the five.

1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

It's her big debut, but a powerful one. As Patsy, the apple of Epps' eye, she is the epitome of slave dehumanization. It's a powerful performance, worthy of a win I guess. Actually, there is a below the line contender that should take the cake...

2. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

It doesn't hurt to be Hollywood's it girl, but Jennifer Lawrence steals the show in what is the best performance of the film. Also she won the Golden Globe. She and Nyong'o are the two leading winner contenders, in the two leading film winner contenders.

3. June Squibb, Nebraska

Like Emma Thompson, this is a crotchety lady performance, but this one steals scenes likes no other. June Squibb's graveyard scene is the stuff Oscar dreams are made of.

4. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler

Remember when she was a leading contender? What doesn't work with her role is that it's neither emotionally engaging nor characterized well... but the fact that she's Oprah really helps with her campaign. She isn't always making the ballots, i.e. Golden Globes.

5. Scarlett Johansson, Her

You know what? It's come down between Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) and Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), but I've picked Scarlett Johansson. It's the greatest voice performance of all time, and blows all supporting performances this year out of the water. She's been nominated for many critics groups, and I think we might be looking at a bit of a surprise come tomorrow. IDK, I just really loved Her.

Yea, if Johansson doesn't make it (and probably won't), don't count out Roberts and Hawkins.

American Hustle- Movie Review by Sean Wu

Based on the first trailer, and the first scene of the first trailer, there is only one thing you need to know about the film: That there are two sides to everything and everyone. This is initially telling when Irving Rosenfeld (a hugely chubby Christian Bale) points out a forged Rembrandt picture to FBI agent Richie DiMaso (an off-the-walls Bradley Cooper).

So everything is more than meets-the-eye, and that's what makes the movie great. Literally everything is detailed, every main character is three-dimensional, every scene is thorough and fleshed-out, and many hilarious lines of dialogue mean more than they seem. It's a work of genius, the film, because it is so intelligent, well-crafted, and well-made.

American Hustle has its first screening, Jennifer Lawrence is a standout.

So yesterday American Hustle screened in LA. Is it good for double-digit nominations? You betcha? Is it good? That's a different story.

I'm sensing some mixed reaction. Jennifer Lawrence apprently stole the show, and is bound for another Oscar nomination and got a mid screening applause. There was also a smatter of boos when the credits rolled, mostly drowned out by tepid applause. Kris Tapley of Hitfix tweeted that he thought the movie was "...okay".

American Hustle is...okay. Lawrence and Cooper the stand-outs.
— Kristopher Tapley (@kristapley) November 25, 2013

However, Variety reports that the film earned 'a big thumbs up.' Reviews are embargoed until next week, but the real opinion you should hear is mine, which you will get mid-December. I still can't wait for American Hustle, and screenings for The Wolf of Wall Street are due to begin next week.

A hustle of new American Hustle stuff: new trailer and five posters!

I would be lying if I said that this movie did not look awesome. I'm really digging the 1970's mood.


Posters after the jump.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
1. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
The buzz has been strong on this since... forever. It's an Oprah performance, that's enough to turn the heads of the Academy.

2. Meryl Streep, August, Osage County
She won so recently, and there's Oprah to reward too. Then again, this is a very meaty part that many people think is actually a leading role, so... I won't be surprised if something happens.

3. Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
Foxcatcher matches the perfect Oscar meld for me: A film with a lot less pre-release buzz, surging into play by a director that has yet to win, but is pretty well-regarded. Yeah, that sounds like Foxcatcher. This is a real outside shot, but if Sony Pictures Classics plays their cards right, they might get something big with Foxcatcher, and drag Vanessa Redgrave along with them.

4. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Though I liked Fruivale Station (not nearly as much as others), I found Octavia Spencer's work to be superb. Oscar worthy, especially since it is better than her work on The Help. She's got Harvey Weinstein helping her too, so I think a nomination is good. A win? Nah, Harvey has Oprah to support too.

5. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor/Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Both sights to be seen. Right now I'm split, since both films are not making festival appearances, I'm judging off what people think of the trailers. Diaz seems to have a meatier part, but Lawrence seems to be going on a hot streak of sorts, so... we'll see.

Check back soon for screenplay predictions!

FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS!

A third year of prognostication comes to a close, and its another year where the true best picture of the year DOES NOT WIN! (You can view all my picks here.)

Best Picture:
ARGO

Best Director:
 STEVEN SPIELBERG, LINCOLN

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, LINCOLN

Best Actress:
Jennifer Lawrence, SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

Best Supporting Actor:
Tommy Lee Jones, LINCOLN

Best Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway, LES MISERABLES

Best Original Screenplay:
Mark Boal, ZERO DARK THIRTY

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Chris Terrio, ARGO

Oscar Opinions: Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

QUICK OPINION:
People go to see movies to have fun. Silver Lining Playbook is the fun film of the year, a real feel-good film, and one of the best. Bradley Cooper brought out his best work in the film, and so did Jennifer Lawrence. I appreciated the script by David O'Russell, and his deftness in making the film. Two years ago brought another crowdpleaser, The Fighter, and two year from now, O'Russell will bring out his CIA film. I am excited for anyone involved in Silver Linings, for what they will do in the years to come.

BEST PERFORMANCE:
Jennifer Lawrence is the most popular one, but Bradley Cooper carried the film's first 25 minutes and the 90 minutes that followed. He really brought out a performance I did not expect, and my opinion of him as an actor has changed due to his performance. Yeah, that must define a performance as a great one when it changes my opinion of an actor.

BEST MOMENT:
There are many heartfelt ones, but the dinner at the cafe is funny and the most heartfelt. It is a sweet scene, and I won't spoil it for those who haven't seen it.

The best actress race: it's a three-horse race, but with a different horse.

Naomi Watts' Oscar chances are now dead-in-the-water, ever since she lost the Globe for Best Actress. Somehow, Emmanuelle Riva is the third horse in the already tricky two-horse race between Lawrence and Chastain. Chastain really needs the BAFTA to really get on Lawrence's level, and I think Chastain is ahead of Lawrence, BAFTA terms. The problem is 86-year old Emmanuelle Riva, for her devastating work in Amour. (Yes, I feel guilty for calling an old lady a 'problem'). Both Amour and Zero Dark Thirty have Best Director nominations, and that's already a good sign that both films are popular. ZDT, I believe, has more nominations, and has an important scene in England, if that's any consolation.

As of right now, here are the actresses ranked in likelihood of winning.

1. Jen Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
4. Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Whoever wins BAFTA changes the game. Crossing fingers for Jessica, but in this race, anything goes.

SAG Winners!

I was able to get 3/5 on my predictions. In my defense, Argo winning Best Cast was a surprise, and Supporting Actor was a mess this year.

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
BEST ACTRESS: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
BEST CAST: Argo

A funny thing happened on the way to the Oscars...

So, Argo just won the Producers Guild, and now I'm truly convinced it might win Best Picture at the Oscars. This is a most unusual occasion, and I'm pleased so that his is one of my big 'upsets' I was hoping for. I knew something would happen, but I am honestly still surprised the Producers liked it so much after such a shabby turnout with the nominations.

Tonight's SAG award can be another game-changer in all ways (except for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel). If  Lincoln wins, we (the prognosticators) know that the film is still the contender. If Silver Linings wins, we know Argo has some competition. If Argo wins, the race would practically end.

Also, Megan Ellison's demand for a recount might become a reality.

Look beyond the jump for Best Supporting Actor and Best Actress thoughts at SAG:

The Guilds, some things to note.

Every year, the most important precursors shake the race. The guilds, namely SAG and PGA. The Screen Actors Guild is on Sunday, and the Producers Guild announces tomorrow. The two films that are truly seeking Oscar gold are Silver Linings Playbooks and Lincoln, based on number of nominations. Argo is also one one more contender that is missing the all-precious directors nomination that is restraining a potential Oscar victory.

PGA Prediction:
Lincoln

SAG (Best Cast) Prediction:
Silver Linings Playbook

This weekend can mark a weekend of great change. In 2006, Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA, and became a hopeful to a true contender. It lost the Golden Globe and was mainly skunked out of a directing nomination. 2006's PGA also marked the beginning of the end of Dreamgirls.

2006 was one of the more messy years in recent memory, and I would like to see a major upset within this weekend. Like Zero Dark Thirty winning the PGA, but that's all just a dream.

The actors in SAG are in the Academy, the same won that gave four acting nominations to Silver Linings Playbook. This is the same Academy that gave 3 acting nominations to The Master, and 1 SAG nomination. Still, Silver Linings Playbook is an actors piece, and it is a piece that is quite popular.  Still, Silver Linings will probably win the big prize in this shindig. This probably means they will give the Best Actress prize to Jennifer Lawrence's very good work in Silver Linings Playbook instead of Jessica Chastain's powerhouse work in Zero Dark Thirty.

Complete SAG predictions below:

Best Actor- Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress- Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor- No idea. Hoping for an upset, so Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (No Django nominees)
Best Supporting Actress- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (duh!)

More after the jump discussing this weekend's significance.

Thoughts on the Golden Globes.

@Michael_Haneke  heres me havin a secret nap when @benaffleck was
doin his speech! Wot did I miss? Did he announce daredevil 2 yet lol

I DON'T CARE IF I'M TOO LATE FOR THIS. BETTER LATE THAN NEVER!

The Golden Globes were almost two Sundays ago, but I'm hoping I'm not two late for this.

Should I have been shocked by the Les Miserables victory? No. But I was. I did more reading after the show to learn that the Globes go more for good musicals than great comedies. Here is a recent track record.

2006: Dreamgirls > Little Miss Sunshine
2007: Sweeny Todd > Juno

This year was no different. I am happy I did reasonably well with my predictions, despite losing in both big categories. In all seriousness, Argo was a bit of a surprise. The Globes loves themselves some George Clooney (a producer of Argo). It does make sense for Lincoln to have won, since it did nab the most nominations in Globes history. Films dream of getting 7 nominations at the Oscars!

There were no big surprises in the acting categories, which is probably a bad sign to Naomi Watts' Oscar campaign. It is weird to see that Affleck won the Globe for Best Director, despite not getting an Oscar nomination.

Spielberg has been left in the cold. He has hardly won any directing prizes, yet his two prime competitors Bigelow (NYFCC, National Board of Review) and Affleck (Critics Choice, Golden Globes) did not get nominations.

THIS IS ONE MESSED UP YEAR.

Golden Globe predictions!

The Golden Globes announce today, and I feel today is going to be a very good show (Poehler + Fey). I hope the winners are also surprising too, especially Breaking Bad for TV drama. That show better win tonight.

Anyways....

BEST MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA
All 5 nominees in this category have gone on to be Best Picture nominees. I'm going to have to say Lincoln will win this one because it is the current frontrunner. I won't be surprised by an Argo upset, and I would be delighted by a Zero Dark Thirty win.

BEST MOTION PICTURE- COMEDY/MUSICAL
The Golden Globes bring  welcome surprises. I feel that the force with Silver Linings Playbook is strong, but any musical in this category is usually a strong contender. In 2007, Sweeny Todd beat out Juno. Still, I'm going with Silver Linings.


BEST DIRECTOR
It's weird what Oscar did. They left out Ben Affleck for Argo, and yet, I think he is going to win Best Director. (Golden Globes hardly predict the Oscar winner. Scorsese won last year, then Fincher, Cameron, Boyle won the Oscar, but then before was Schnabel, Inarritu...)

Who is going to win Best Actress? It's a three-horse race.

Winning Best Actress would
not be... 'Impossible' *groan*

I've passionately supported Jessica Chastain to win Best Actress. The Golden Globes will not tell us anything, since Jennifer Lawrence is in the comedy category, and Chastain is in the drama category. Lawrence has an easy win, and I initially thought Chastain had another easy race, but as the Navy SEALS say- 'No Easy Day'. I never realized how much of a boost Watts was getting by SAG and Golden Globes, and she is quite popular in the industry. Do not be surprised if Watts surprises with a Globes win, so SAG might truly be the best way to determine the winner.

Consider that last year's SAG winner Viola Davis lost in Streep sympathy vote, and Watts just might win in a 'sorry we forgot to nominate you for Fair Game and whatever else' surprise. Lawrence is just still too young to win, by voters standards. Chastain is uber-popular and hopefully wins. I honestly don't know who will win. It's a three-horse race, and anyone can win.

Speaking of horse races, here is a video of a horse that began last and strode up to first. ARRRRRR!

Silver Linings Playbook (2012)- A crazy great time at the movies (3.5/4 Stars)

David O'Russell might be the most versatile director I've heard of. In 2004, he made I Heart Huckabees, a comedy of sorts. 2010 brought The Fighter a boxing-and-drug drama. 2012 has graced us with Silver Linings Playbook, a humorous film that handles its subject matter (mental illness) very well.

Amour wins Best Film, The Master takes 4 prizes, including Best Actor... all at LAFCA!

This is the first critics group that did not give the top prize to Zero Dark Thirty, and I'm extremely happy with The Master winning 4 prizes. Also, Skyfall won an award, and The Dark Knight Rises got a mention. Awesome.

(Oddly, Lincoln and Life of Pi) both got shut out.

Best Picture
"Amour"
(Runner-up: "The Master")

Best Actor
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"
(Runner-up: Denis Lavant, "Holy Motors")

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook" and Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour" (tie)

Best Supporting Actor
Dwight Henry, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
(Runner-up: Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained")

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, "The Master"
(Runner-up: Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables" and "The Dark Knight Rises")

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "The Master"
(Runner-up: Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty")

Best Screenplay
Chris Terrio, "Argo"
(Runner-up: David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook")

Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins, "Skyfall"
(Runner-up: Mihai Malaimare Jr., "The Master")

Best Actress predictions (11/24/12)

I wouldn't be doing these if there wasn't something big, like a change in the race. Yet, there is.

1. Jessica Chastain for 'Zero Dark Thirty'
Oscars have a tough relationship with relevancy. 'The Hurt Locker' was relevant to the time, and it won. 'The Social Network' was REALLY relevant, yet it lost. I think the Academy will side with relevancy this time, and give the prize to Chassy, because it is so challenging. Also, some Oscars voters assumedly watch 'Homeland', with Carrie Mathison having striking parallels to Jessica's character.

2. Jennifer Lawrence for 'Silver Linings Playbook'
As this film's chances are failing, so is the film's heavyweight. Jennifer Lawrence is too young of a best actress contender to win, judging from the fact that the Academy is 70% white old male. Emphasis on the OLD.

3. Quevenzhane Wallis for 'Beasts of the Southern Wild'
A select few love this independent film, and they will easily vote for the 6-year old Wallis. I don't intend to sound like a internet dweeb, but younger hipsters eat this film up, and Wallis with it. Also, Wallis has been doing some nice publicity for the film, but no SAG really hurts.

4. Emanuelle Riva for 'Amour'
Since this foreign film is predicted to win, and even be a Best Picture nominee, Emanuelle Riva is going to ride along with it. Since the Academy is 70% old white males, they will easily vote for Riva's performance that will hit close to home. Also, since there will most likely be room for one french performance, it will be Riva's, not Cotillard's difficult portrayal of an amputee.

5. Naomi Watts for 'The Impossible'
'The Impossible' is a film with growing momentum, with big sponsorship by Angelina Jolie. With this added boost, Watts will probably be nominated, kicking out Cotillard in the nominee spot.

Best Actress predictions

BEST ACTRESS:

1. J. Law for Silver Linings Playbook.
She's young. They're in love. I mean 'They' as in the Academy. She basically was the main reason Winter's Bone got the nomination for Best Picture. Silver Linings is a crowd pleaser, and being the main star of The Hunger Games is only going to help her.

2. Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone
Since Missy C has been a winner of Best Actress before, for a French film. Isn't Rust and Bone a French film? This year's Best Actress pickings have been reasonable slim, and her nomination is  near lock. Also, being a French goddess and being in The Dark Knight Rises is only going to help her.

3. Quevenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
The best thing of Wallis' performance is that she was a natural Southern. She was born for the role. It was so unusual to see something so human in such a fantasy. The only thing limiting her nomination is her SAG ineligibility.

4. Emanuelle Riva for Amour
The old farts in the Academy will vote for her for what she's done (Hiroshima mon amour). The others will vote for her because she has an amazing performance in this foreign film. The main thing limiting her is the fact that the film is foreign. That probably could limit Marion Cotillard.

5. Tie between Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
JC is one of the stars that's taking Hollywood by storm, who can do art-house and blockbuster with ease. Zero Dark Thirty looks to be both. The film has yet to be seen, but Annapurna Productions and Sony has faith in the film. Naomi Watts has been praised for many performances, but has only nabbed one nomination, all the way back in 2003. So Chassy is only getting more popular, and Watts is losing her footing. However, The Impossible is a disaster true story tale, which will appeal to all members. Zero Dark Thirty is definitely going to get some controversy for its themes. However, it will appeal to those who voted for The Hurt Locker. I am conflicted.

Screenplay nomination predictions due tomorrow.

The Hunger Games: Don't C it. (C)

Yuck. That's what people say when a kid throws up on a roller coaster.

And kids will throw up after watching the massively over-hyped Hunger Games. There was cinematography in the movie that was so shaky, it was like a roller coaster. That could be a good thing or a bad thing, but its bad. There are scenes with Jennifer Lawrence's Katniss talking to her friend Gale, and the camera is moving at a speed of 10 mph. And with a film hyped this much, you think they could at least afford a tripod.