Naomi Watts' Oscar chances are now dead-in-the-water, ever since she lost the Globe for Best Actress. Somehow, Emmanuelle Riva is the third horse in the already tricky two-horse race between Lawrence and Chastain. Chastain really needs the BAFTA to really get on Lawrence's level, and I think Chastain is ahead of Lawrence, BAFTA terms. The problem is 86-year old Emmanuelle Riva, for her devastating work in Amour. (Yes, I feel guilty for calling an old lady a 'problem'). Both Amour and Zero Dark Thirty have Best Director nominations, and that's already a good sign that both films are popular. ZDT, I believe, has more nominations, and has an important scene in England, if that's any consolation.
As of right now, here are the actresses ranked in likelihood of winning.
1. Jen Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
4. Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Whoever wins BAFTA changes the game. Crossing fingers for Jessica, but in this race, anything goes.