If you were to ask anyone who the Oscar front runner is, you'll hear The Artist, The Descendants, or even Moneyball. (Yes, I'm talking about Sasha Stone,). The fact that there is no real front runner is a delight, and makes the game a real guess.
I'm going to say there is about a 5% chance of Bridesmaids being nominated. I'm extending the margin just in case it happens. I would also put a 3% chance on J. Edgar, because... it's not that good. Drive would have a 15% chance, despite it's goodness.
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close. Gee, I'm giving it a 50/50 chance. (The movie 50/50 is getting a 1% chance, even though it looks good,). One of my last articles, Extreme Loss and Incredible Crap? is unfairly titled, but EL&IC is losing chances with a now 65% tomato-meter. It's pretty much holding on by Daldry and Hanks. Horn's performance is too divisive.
Speaking of divisive, The Tree of Life (My favorite movie of 2011!). It's quite divisive, just read the RT reviews here. It has a 61% audience approval rating, but an 84% Critics Rank. Either way, I think with Daldry's loss, the year's best film will become a nominee. I'm giving it a 75% chance of being nominated.
On the note of 75, that's the RT score for The Help. It's probably the year's "Audience picks" nominee, one that parents at home probably saw. I'm not going to lie, but I actually liked it quite a bit. It's a good flair of comedy and drama, and I really want Viola Davis to win Best Actress. In fact, I think the performances keep the whole film afloat. They are hard to ignore, so... 90% chance of being nominated in my book.
Over Christmas Break, I want to see The Descendants and The Artist, the two real front runners. There was a third, War Horse, but it's losing chances. The Descendants, 99.9%. The Artist, 100% (My bet to win,). War Horse, 95%.
In fact, if you want to be nominated, be different. The Tree of Life and The Artist are probably the most different films out of the bunch. The former being more divisive.
Predicted Best Picture Nominees, percentages show chance of being nominated.
1. The Artist, 100%
2. The Descendants, 99.9%
3. Hugo, 98%
4. War Horse, 95%
5. The Help, 90%
6. Midnight in Paris, 85%
7. Moneyball, 80%
8. The Tree of Life, 75%
As I stated, I think there will only be 8 nominees. If there was the same system as last year's, I would give Drive a boost, and probably The Ides of March (or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo). EL&IC's score will have to come in before I can give my complete opinion.