Last time I did this, Hitchcock was a sight unseen, and Scarlett Johansson occupied one of the slots. Currently there are three locks, one almost lock, and a free-for-all.
1. Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
She's been nominated before (almost won!), and she's quite popular in a popular film. This is a sure thing for a win.
2. Sally Field, Lincoln
Sally Field's performance has been captivating critics groups and has redefined Mary Lincoln as a nut. It's great work.
3. Amy Adams, The Master
Because I am doing this on my phone, I am frankly to lazy to check how many times Amy has been nominated. I believe this could be her 5th/6th nomination. The performance has been well-embraced by critics, and got a Globe nomination, but no SAG can hurt.
4. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
This is the third lock. Amy is a near lock, but she has a higher chance (but not too high) of winning. The Sessions, I think, will be a difficult film for the Academy because of SEX.
5. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Fox Searchlight could potentially have two supporting actress contenders. I think Dame Maggie will boot out Nicole Kidman's Paperboy because Fox can easily distribute Marigold quicker than Paperboy's little distributor can. Also, SAG gave Marigold a Best Cast nomination.
Check back for some more Oscar predictions